Tuesday, 15 October 2019

Nobel Laureate's formula for India's economy fix | RBI Governor questioned on supervision | CG Power may get a lifeline

MORNING NEWSLETTER

16 Oct, 2019 | 08:16 AM IST


Good Morning!

When the equity market goes out of your grasp, turn to defensives. That's the age-old trick no serious equity investor needs to be reminded of. The problem is, Dalal Street's time-tested defensive bets like FMCG, IT, healthcare appear to be losing their edge. Traditionally, such stocks don't go out of fashion. But now they seem to do. They look prone to cyclicality of the economy as well, even as dividends dry up. Is there a churn happening there too?

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STREET PULSE: Where we stand
Asian shares took off and sterling held near six-month highs as Britain and the EU made headway on a Brexit deal. Read More

    SGX Nifty traded nearly 40 points higher at 7 am (IST), signalling buoyancy on Dalal Street. MSCI index for Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan rose 0.3%. Japan's Nikkei jumped 1.7% while Australian shares added 0.9% and South Korea's KOSPI climbed 0.7%.
    On Wall Street, blockbuster earnings from the likes of JPMorgan Chase and UnitedHealth sent the Dow climbing 237 points, or 0.9%. The S&P 500 rallied 1%, while the Nasdaq jumped 1.2%

Oil prices rose, tracking gains in equities, as investors pinned hopes on a potential Brexit deal. Brent crude oil futures rose risen 11 cents to $58.85 a barrel, while WTI crude rose 10 cents, or 0.2%, to $52.91. Read More

LOOK WHO'S

Telco Bonanza… The telecom department is working on a plan to provide a two-year holiday on payment of spectrum dues totalling over Rs 40,000 crore by the three private telcos, a senior official said. If implemented, this will be the second major step taken by the government in two years to ease the burden of the sector that has debt of over Rs 7 lakh crore, amid pressure on revenue and profitability due to price competition. Read More

No Taxing Worry… Revenue secretary Ajay Bhushan Pandey says the government is well on track to meet tax targets even after the significant cut in corporate tax rates and that any reduction in personal income-tax would depend on impact of the measures taken on revenue and the Budget. He refuted criticism that GST was the cause of the current economic slowdown, saying it was a win-win for everyone. Read More

Relief Package... Banks plan to recast Rs 4,000 crore loans of fraud-hit CG Power and Industrial Solutions, including an easier moratorium on repayments and standstill arrangement on past loans, to keep the company's operations going. Read More

WHO'S
Das Faces Questions… RBI governor Shaktikanta Das came under pressure at the bank's board meeting last week, with two external directors questioning how a string of frauds that have surfaced since 2018 remained undetected for years. The two board members referred to the losses suffered by Punjab National Bank, which bankrolled jeweller Nirav Modi and his uncle Mehul Choksi; the multiple irregularities in IL&FS; and the recent failure of PMC Bank — 70% of whose loan book was cornered by Mumbai-based realtor HDIL. Questions have cropped up on the efficacy of its inspection and supervision mechanism. Read More

Trade Turmoil… India's exports contracted 6.57% in September as shipments of petroleum, engineering, gems & jewellery and chemicals fell. Imports declined 13.85% to a three-year low of $36.89 billion, indicating weak domestic demand. The drop in shipments of petroleum, engineering, leather, chemicals and gems & jewellery made India's exports shrink to $26.03 billion. Trade deficit narrowed to a seven-month low of $10.86 billion from $14.95 billion a year earlier and $13.45 billion in August. Only eight out of 30 key export sectors showed growth in September. Read More

Meanwhile...
Nobel Economics Prize for Indian-American Abhijit Banerjee says India's economy is in a "tailspin" and "doing very badly". "It is the time when you don't worry so much about monetary stability and you worry a little bit more about demand," the Nobel Laureate said. On Tuesday, IMF cut its estimate for India's growth this year to 6.1% from 7% projected in July, calling on the country to use monetary policy and broad-based structural reforms to address cyclical weakness and strengthen confidence. Read More
KEY INDICES
15,629 + 35.85
12,774  -13.98
28,555 + 373.15
15,208  -69.35
Price Movers|Volume Movers|Near 52 Week High|Near 52 Week Low

Stocks to Watch >>>

    Bangalore-based Prestige Group is in initial talks with the Blackstone-owned Nexus Malls to merge their mall businesses in sign of consolidation in India's competitive shopping centre space

    Baring Partners, the private-equity major, and a strategic investor are in the race to buy 30% in Can Fin Homes, the housing-finance subsidiary at state-run lender Canara Bank.

    Adani Group and Anil Ambani's Reliance Group are competing with a consortium of IRB Infrastructure and Government of Singapore Investment Corp for toll operation rights on Mumbai-Pune Expressway.

    Canadian pension fund Caisse de dépôt et placement du Québec (CDPQ) has agreed to buy erstwhile IDFC Private Equity's road portfolio Highway Concessions One (HC1) for ?2,400 crore,

    The Cabinet may, by next month, consider a proposal to hive off GAIL (India)'s pipeline business into a separate entity, but its sale to a strategic investor may not happen before 2022,

    HPCL-Mittal Energy, a joint venture between Hindustan Petroleum and Mittal Energy Investment, Singapore, raised $300m on Tuesday by selling bonds to offshore investors

    IndianOil, the nation's largest refiner and fossil fuel retailer, plans to raise up to Rs 6,000 crore via bonds this financial year with about half of it planned for this week

UnQuote: D-STREET WOES
This time, the market was too vicious, we did not get time to react
Madhu Kela, Dalal Street veteran

Day Planner:

    Q2 Earnings: DB Corp, Federal Bank, Mindtree, AB Money
    UK Sept inflation rate
    Fed Daly Speech
    Euro Area Aug balance of trade

OUTLOOK

AUTO
    Yogesh Mehta of Yield Maximiser says while commercial vehicles segment is still on a sideways path, one could consider allocations to passenger vehicle and two-wheeler segments in the portfolio. Hero MotoCorp, Bajaj, Maruti, Escorts and Mahindra & Mahindra are looking more and more compelling on the valuation front.

CONSUMPTION
    Siddharth Parekh of Paragon Partners says the slowdown in consumption is temporary. "It is a near-term issue. You have seen volumes contract for large FMCG companies, probably driven by slower rural growth. But as a long-term investor, if you have a five-seven year horizon, each of these segments have huge growth ahead," says he.

TRADE DEFICIT
    Aditi Nayar of Icra says the lower-than-anticipated trade deficit for September will help cause current account deficit to halve to $8-9 billion in Q2 of FY2020 from around $19 billion in Q2 of FY2019, thanks to moderate crude oil prices, subdued gold imports and sluggish domestic demand.

STOCKS RECOMMENDATIONS
Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd. 16 Oct, 2019 | 08:08 AM IST buyBuy
Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd. 16 Oct, 2019 | 08:06 AM IST buyBuy


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