Tuesday, 22 October 2019

Brexit now unlikely on Oct 31 | DHFL may buy back bonds from MFs | Top private lenders signal bad loan distress

MORNING NEWSLETTER

23 Oct, 2019 | 08:17 AM IST


Good Morning!

Warren Buffett prescribes a three-point check list to understand the quality of a business: competence of management, its passion to take the business forward, and integrity. A Dalal Street veteran says in India one needs to reverse that order and go and check integrity first. That reflects collective frustration over the way skeletons are tumbling out of cupboards of reputed businesses. The whistleblower case at Infosys in a way shows a strong in-built process that exists to check bad behaviour. But the fact that the IT major hid the complaint for one whole month does not suggest the system is fool-proof

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STREET PULSE: Where we stand
Asian shares and US stock futures dipped after British lawmakers rejected the government's timetable to fast-track legislation for its deal to take Britain out of the EU. Here's what to watch

    SGX Nifty traded flat at 7 am (IST), signalling indecisiveness ahead on Dalal Street. MSCI index for Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan fell 0.17%, while Japan's Nikkei dipped 0.3%.
    US stocks ended lower in overnight trade. Dow fell 39.54 points, S&P500 lost 10.73 points, and the Nasdaq dropped 58.69 points

Crude oil prices fell after industry group data showed US crude stocks rose more than expected last week. Brent crude futures fell 0.49% to $59.41 a barrel while WTI crude lost 0.64% to $54.13. Read More

LOOK WHO'S

DHFL Offer… Dewan Housing Finance may offer to buy back bonds held by mutual funds at a discount to ensure near unanimity among lenders and allow an exit to those unwilling to be a part of the banks-led resolution process. Big banks, who are driving the resolution process as part of the RBI circular dated June 7, are keen to have MFs on board to ensure smooth passage for the plan proposed by the DHFL management. Read More

    Shardul Amarchand Mangaldas to probe Infy case >>>
    TCS to gain from Infy's loss of trust among investors >>>

Stocks in Good Books... Morgan Stanley says ICICI Prudential Life, SBI Life Insurance and Siemens are likely to be added to the MSCI India Index. Also, ICICI Bank is likely to see an increase in weightage and could potentially get nearly $1 billion in inflows as a result. Read More

Single FDI Window... The Department for Promotion of Industry and Internal Trade is planning to set up a single window system to handhold foreign investors keen to invest in India. The single-window system is likely to have representatives from both the Centre and state governments. The system will help in getting all relevant approvals and clearances required by foreign investors. Read More

WHO'S
Bad Omen… Two top Indian private-sector lenders on Tuesday signalled stress in their loan books as the banks grapple with the worst economic slowdown in years that has increased bad loans across the sector. Kotak Mahindra Bank, the nation's third-largest lender by market value, trimmed its full-year loan growth forecast, while the sixth-biggest bank Axis Bank said its small business and small and medium enterprises categories have come under pressure due to delayed payments. Read More

Signs of Times... Corporate India's merger and acquisition activity witnessed a downtrend in September quarter with total deal value falling by more than half to $6,025 million through 97 deals against 134 transactions worth $13,185 million in the same period last year, largely owing to a slump in economic activity and lack of big ticket deals, shows Grant Thornton's quarterly M&A Dealtracker. Read More

Meanwhile...British lawmakers on Tuesday rejected the government's proposed timetable for passing legislation to ratify its deal to exit the European Union. The defeat in Parliament made it unlikely that Britain would finalise its exit by Prime Minister Boris Johnson's Oct. 31 target. Johnson said it was up to the EU to decide whether it wanted to delay Brexit and for how long. Read More
KEY INDICES
16,227 + 13.0
13,190 + 63.54
29,411 + 290.9
14,689  -721.45
Price Movers|Volume Movers|Near 52 Week High|Near 52 Week Low

Stocks to Watch >>>

    Embassy Group is in talks with Japanese financial services firm ORIX Corporation to offload 30% stake in its property management business Embassy Services in a deal valued at about Rs 2,300 crore.

    NCLT-Mumbai has admitted a plea by Rattan India Finance to initiate insolvency proceedings against travel company Cox & Kings for defaulting on a loan of Rs 30 crore.

    The Official Liquidator of the Bombay High Court is looking to sell around 120 acre land parcel of Mafatlal Engineering Industries to repay dues of its lenders and more than 3,000 workers

    Sebi has challenged the SAT's decision to quash a two-year ban that was imposed on Price Waterhouse in connection with the Rs 7,800 crore Satyam fraud, according to sources.

    IndiGo cofounder Rahul Bhatia has filed a case in Florida against Rakesh Gangwal, seeking information related to Gangwal allegedly breaching the latest shareholders' agreement signed between the two partners

    Malaysia's IHH Healthcare is planning to reduce its India footprint by selling its 62.2% stake in Hyderabad-based Continental Hospitals and 74% stake in Global Hospitals. Its Fortis buy plan is also in limbo

UnQuote: STRAIGHT TALK
When I see a bear market I say it, others talk about it in the bathroom
Shankar Sharma, Vice Chairman & Joint MD, First Global

The DAY PLANNER

    Key Q2 Earnings: Bajaj Auto, Bajaj Holdings, HCL Tech, HDFC Life, Hero MotoCorp, JSW Steel, L&T
    US API Oct crude oil stock change
    US Aug House Price index
    Sourav Ganguly takes over as BCCI boss

OUTLOOK

CRUDE OIL
    Goldman Sachs has slightly lowered its outlook for global oil demand growth in 2020 to 1.3 million bpd from 1.4 million bpd previously and forecast supply growth from major oil producing non-Opec regions of 1.4 million bpd, falling sharply to 0.2 million bpd in 2021 and 0.3 million bpd in 2022.

CEMENT
    Deven R Choksey of KR Choksey Investment Managers says there's a good amount of optimism in the cement sector that going forward, when construction activity starts reviving, they will deliver relatively better numbers. Certainly there is a reason to remain relatively more confident about many of these companies.
SMALLCAPS vs MIDCAPS?
    Nilesh Shah of Kotak AMC says smallcaps are trading way below their historical average. They need a catalyst to give returns but the margin of safety from a valuation point of view is the highest there. Midcaps are reasonably well below their historical average. They also need a catalyst to give return, but the margin of safety is pretty high there compared with largecaps, but lower than smallcaps.

STOCKS RECOMMENDATIONS
NIIT Technologies Ltd. 22 Oct, 2019 | 10:14 AM IST buyBuy
Ashok Leyland Ltd. 22 Oct, 2019 | 10:13 AM IST buyBuy


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