Thursday 24 October 2019

Infy seeks speedy whistleblower probe | Q2 shows IndiGo's soft underbelly | GOI bonds drawing investors

MORNING NEWSLETTER

25 Oct, 2019 | 08:17 AM IST


Good Morning!

Valuation is, of course, a key parameter in stock buying. But that's the challenge in the current Indian market. As one industry veteran points out, given the economic slowdown, long delay in earnings revival, stalled capex cycle and rapid rise in select stocks, nobody really knows how long one has to wait for an investment to deliver. Even after steep corrections, most stocks are still not reflecting the reality

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STREET PULSE: Where we stand
Asian shares inched up this morning, tracking small gains in world markets as positive earnings offset economic growth concerns. Here's what to watch

    SGX Nifty traded nearly 30 points lower at 7 am (IST), signalling weakness ahead on Dalal Street. MSCI index for Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was 0.13% higher. Australian shares added 0.66% and Japan's Nikkei ticked up 0.15%.
    On Wall Street, strong quarterly results from Microsoft and PayPal helped lift Nasdaq, which closed up 0.81%. S&P500 rose 0.19%, but Dow finished 0.11% lower

Oil prices stepped back after three straight days of gains, hurt by renewed concerns about fuel demand in light of gloomy economic growth forecasts. Brent crude slipped 30 cents to $61.37 a barrel, while WTI crude fell 26 cents to $55.97. Read More

LOOK WHO'S

Rising Through the Ranks… India has jumped 14 places to 63 in the 2020 edition of the World Bank's Ease of Doing Business ranking, riding on reforms in seven areas and a substantial bump-up from the insolvency law rolled out in 2016. The country improved its rank on seven out of 10 indicators tracked by the World Bank with the highest 56-place jump to 52 in resolving insolvency. Read More

Safe Bets… Investors in the zero to 20% tax bracket can buy the Government of India bonds that offer of 7.75%, while those in the 30% tax bracket and above can look at the tax- free bonds. Both products score over bank fixed deposits where interest rates have come down to 6-7% after a series of rate cuts in last one year. Financial advisers say while these bonds have no credit risk, investors earn a good 100-125 basis points higher than bank deposits. Read More

    British PM calls general election on Dec 12 >>>
    Zuckerberg open to scaling back Libra plans >>>

Selling Family Silver... RBI has been selling gold from its reserves for the first time in a long while. Since the beginning of July, the start of the central bank's business year, it bought gold worth $5.1 billion and sold about $1.15 billion of the yellow metal, RBI data showed. The value of gold in the country's forex reserves amounted to $26.7 billion on October 11. The total amount of gold with RBI at the end of August was 19.87 million troy ounces. Read More

WHO'S
Infy Distress… Infosys has directed law firm Shardul Amarchand Mangaldas and consultancy EY to complete investigations into whistleblower allegations of accounting malfeasance within the next fortnight as the software major battles to return to a business-as-usual-mode. The US Securities and Exchange Commission has begun a probe into the whistleblower claims, while Sebi has asked the company for additional information on the letter. Read More

Telecom Duopoly?... The Supreme Court judgement that said adjusted gross revenue for telcos should include all revenue accrued to carriers, including that from non-core activities, which put a huge additional tax burden of over Rs 1 lakh crore on the telcos, may hasten further consolidation, paving the way for a two-operator telecom market, comprising Reliance Jio and Bharti Airtel, say analysts. The order has put Vodafone Idea's very survival at stake, they say. Read More

Fresh NBFC crisis?... Financial metrics of mortgage lenders and NBFCs could deteriorate further due to non-availability of funding and the possibility of large loans to builders turning into bad loans next year when the moratorium expires, say rating companies. For some of the companies, the wholesale lending part is high between 50% and 90%. The prolonged economic slowdown could also impact the debt servicing ability of home loan buyers, raising a sense of déjà vu. Read More

    Fitch cuts FY20 GDP growth forecast to 5.5%. >>>

Meanwhile...BJP got a wake-up call on Thursday with Maharashtra and Haryana assembly elections delivering results well below the party's expectations, but enough seats to form governments, though last-minute jostling was under way in Haryana where efforts were on to round up independents. Prime Minister Narendra Modi said winning a second straight term in Haryana is unprecedented, especially for the BJP, as the state was not a party stronghold before 2014. Sources claim BJP has the numbers in the state, as independents and former minister Gopal Kanda have extended support to it. Read More
KEY INDICES
16,195  -52.4
13,204  -18.75
29,108  -351.65
14,782  -51.85
Price Movers|Volume Movers|Near 52 Week High|Near 52 Week Low

Stocks to Watch >>>

    Pharma major Dr Reddy's has confirmed it has recalled all its batches of heartburn drug Ranitidine after USFDA issued a caution notice that the medication contained carcinogenic substance nitrosodimethylamine above levels established by the regulator.

    IDBI Bank is in the final stages of negotiations with Edelweiss Mutual Fund to sell its mutual fund arm IDBI AMC in its effort to get out of prompt corrective action and free up capital.

    ITC's September quarter performance reinforced its place of as a dividend stock in an investor's portfolio. Thanks to the corporate tax cut, the company's profitability received a big boost, with its tax burden dropping by half.

    Second quarter results showing a loss of over Rs 1,000 crore and certain other issues plaguing IndiGo mean headwinds for the airline are only becoming stronger. Its carefully executed strategy of flooding the market with capacity and gaining market share was key factor behind IndiGo's rise

UnQuote: DIVIDEND STOCK
In the dividend yield category, many stocks look attractive today
S Naren, ED & CIO, ICICI Prudential AMC

The DAY PLANNER

    Q2 Earnings: SBI | HDFC AMC | Marico | Reliance Capital | Tata Motors
    Fed Williams Speech
    Baker Hughes Oct oil rig count
    India Oct Deposit Growth
    India Oct Forex Reserves

OUTLOOK

PALM OIL
    Palm oil prices are going in the direction of a broader uptrend backed by lower production and expectations of higher biodiesel consumption by B20 in Malaysia and B30 in Indonesia next year, but whether or not the surprise uptick can sustain will depend on the prices of rival oils, says Anilkumar Bagani, research head of Mumbai-based vegetable oil broker Sunvin Group.

POUND
    Sterling remains at the centre of the focus for forex markets. It looks like traders are weighing up the current parliamentary shenanigans versus the seeming inevitability of a Brexit. With trade negotiations now moving out of the headlines, there doesn't seem much to spur the dollar in either direction, says Michael McCarthy, chief market strategist at brokerage CMC Markets in Sydney.

ASIAN PAINTS
    Motilal Oswal aalyst Krishnan Sambamoorthy says lower crude costs imply that Ebitda margins in FY20 are likely to be close to record high, despite a sharp deterioration in the product mix. Barring the corporate tax led impact, profit growth will likely continue in the modest trend of recent years.

STOCKS RECOMMENDATIONS
HCL Technologies Ltd. 24 Oct, 2019 | 11:53 AM IST buyBuy
ICICI Securities Ltd. 24 Oct, 2019 | 11:55 AM IST buyBuy


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