Monday 21 October 2019

Whistleblower blow to Infosys | Jamie Dimon on India opportunity | SBI SOS for power project rescue

MORNING NEWSLETTER

22 Oct, 2019 | 09:11 AM IST


Good Morning!

A Dalal Street veteran last week best articulated the stock investor's dilemma in a market starved of earnings growth. He said today when you buy a HUL, you buy it at 43 times March 2021 EPS. It is fairly valued on the March 2021 numbers. "So what do I do? Do I wait for two years and then start making money on the stock?

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STREET PULSE: Where we stand
Asian shares edged ahead this morning amid cheery chatter about the chance of a Sino-US trade deal, while investors were sanguine yet another vote on Brexit would still avert a hard exit. Here's what to watch...

    SGX Nifty traded nearly 20 points down at 7 am (IST), signalling weakness ahead on Dalal Street. MSCI index for Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan added a slight 0.13%. South Korean Kospi rose 0.4%, while E-Mini futures for the S&P500 were little changed. Nikkei futures traded flat.
    US stocks soared after Trump and China agreed on a trade deal. Dow rose 242 points to 26,816, while the S&P500 advanced 0.6%, and the Nasdaq 0.9%

Oil prices steadied a little, supported by signs of progress in talks on resolving the US-China trade dispute. Brent crude futures rose 14 cents to $59.10 a barrel while WTI crude futures advanced 18 cents to $53.49. Read More

LOOK WHO'S

Saffron Sweep… Exit polls have predicted a resounding victory for the BJP in the Maharashtra and Haryana assembly elections. Most polls have given nearly three-fourths majority to the ruling BJP-Shiv Sena combine in Maharashtra, and a similar margin to it in Haryana. In Maharashtra, the BJP-Shiv Sena is projected to win 180 to 243 seats, comfortably above the halfway mark of 144, while in Haryana, most polls gave the BJP more than 70 seats in a House of 90. Read more

Realty rescue... With banks and NBFCs turning their back on real estate, private equity funds are coming to the rescue of the cash-starved sector. On the backdrop of the liquidity squeeze, private equity funds have invested $3.8 billion in Indian real estate in the first nine months of the calendar year, 19% higher than the $3.2 billion invested during the same period a year ago. Read more

India Opportunity... JP Morgan global CEO Jamie Dimon says the time is ripe for India to grab a chunk of global trade and strengthen its manufacturing industry as the US and China trade war intensifies, threatening the three-decade-old global economic order. But investments would be conditional on accompanying reforms. India can get back to 7-8% economic growth if it continues to 'attack' the potential bottlenecks, he said. Read more

WHO'S
Infy Jolt… Infosys saw its ADRs on New York Stock Exchange sink by over 12 per cent on Tuesday, after the revelation that a group describing itself as 'whistle-blower staffers' had accused the management of hiding the true financial picture. Indian market was closed on Monday due to state elections. Brokerages expect the stock to see similar selling pressure on Tuesday. Read more

Divorce Deal... British Prime Minister Boris Johnson was dealt another blow on Monday when Parliament Speaker denied him a second shot at winning MPs' approval for his EU divorce deal, with Brexit looming in just 10 days' time. He will try again today to get the first stage of a withdrawal bill through Parliament. Read more

Meanwhile...US President Donald Trump on Monday sounded upbeat about the possibility of the Phase 1 of a China trade deal at the November APEC summit, but Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross said an initial trade deal doesn't need to be finalised next month, emphasizing the need to get the right deal. White House adviser Larry Kudlow said tariffs on Chinese goods scheduled for December could be withdrawn if talks go well. Read more
KEY INDICES
16,214 + 326.7
13,127 + 212.74
29,120 + 130.8
15,410 + 128.2
Price Movers|Volume Movers|Near 52 Week High|Near 52 Week Low

Stocks to Watch >>>

    The board of ONGC Videsh will likely consider a proposal to float its shares at its next meeting in November following a government nudge to do so, people familiar with the matter said.
    Catalyst Trusteeship has moved the Debt Recovery Tribunal against Dewan Housing Finance, acting on behalf of the retail bondholders of the home financier that has defaulted on some of its payments.
    Several existing overseas investors of Ujjivan Financial Services may pick up stake in its banking arm, Ujjivan Small Finance Bank, through the Rs 1,200 crore IPO the lender plans to launch before Dec.
    SBI has sought immediate government intervention to salvage gas-based power plants with total capacity of 25,000 mw before some Rs 1 lakh crore loans become non-performing assets.
    Vodafone Idea has urged the telecom regulator to defer scrapping interconnect charges from the January 2020 deadline, saying there will always be a cost of terminating a call.
    The board of Bharti Infratel Monday said it would not be possible to complete the merger with Indus Towers by the October 24 deadline since regulatory approvals had not been received.

UnQuote: REAR VIEW
Approaching stock market with a multibagger mindset is arrogance
Bharat Shah, Executive Director, ASK Group

The DAY PLANNER

    Q2 Earnings: Asian Paints | Axis Bank | Bajaj Finserve | Bajaj Finance | CEAT | ICICI Pru Life | Kotak Bank | M&M Financial |RBL Bank
    Fed Kaplan Speech

OUTLOOK

RIL
Axis Capital says said RIL could be a $220 billion entity by FY24, which implies 17 per cent stock return CAGR over four years. Investor concerns on debt levels seem overdone as RIL is likely to generate over Rs 4.4 lakh crore in cash flows over FY19-24E and expects its Tower InvIT to fetch Rs 11,800 crore.

CRUDE OILCrude oil prices suffered after data showed that China's economic growth remained weak. This weighed on an already gloomy mood after the weekly EIA [US Energy Information Administration] report earlier showed crude oil inventories rose 9.3 million barrels the previous week, say analysts at ANZ.

NEGATIVE RATES"We still have tools which could be used as necessary (to improve growth)," says Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda. "I don't think the effect of monetary policy has declined significantly or materially Still, a prolonged low interest rate situation could have side effects on the financial system. You have to be careful," says he.

STOCKS RECOMMENDATIONS
18 Oct, 2019 | 01:20 PM IST buy
TVS Motor Company Ltd. 18 Oct, 2019 | 01:23 PM IST buyBuy


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