Thursday, 3 October 2019

IRCTC most successful IPO in 20 months | Bond investors seek clarity on RBI's future rate cut | Global funds in Altico revival bid

MORNING NEWSLETTER

4 Oct, 2019 | 08:36 AM IST


Good Morning!

The astounding success of the IRCTC IPO, which was subscribed 112 times, making it the most successful share sale in 20 months, shows there is no dearth of investor appetite on Dalal Street. What's missing is confidence, arising out mainly from what an analyst termed as balance sheet phenomenon. There has been a lot of balance sheet clean-up in both private as well as public sectors. If second quarter earnings offer some clarity on the outcome, there could be better days ahead.

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STREET PULSE: Where we stand
Asian stocks edged higher on Friday, thanks to overnight gains on Wall Street, but the mood remained cautious ahead of a key US job report. Read More

    SGX Nifty traded nearly 26 points higher at 7 am (IST), signalling positivity on Dalal Street after Monday's fall. MSCI index for Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan ticked up 0.16%. Japan's Nikkei rose 0.04% and Australian shares advanced 0.29%.
    After two days of decline, the Dow rose more than 120 points, or 0.5%, while the S&P500 climbed 0.8%, and the Nasdaq 1.1%. US stock futures fell 0.16% in Asia on Friday.

Oil futures edged higher on Friday but were on track for a large weekly loss on fears that slower global economic growth will hurt demand for fuel. Brent futures rose 8 cents, or 0.1%, to $57.79 a barrel while WTI crude gained 12 cents to $52.57. Read More

LOOK WHO'S

Rate-Setting Day… With another rate cut by RBI already baked in, traders say the nascent recovery in India's bonds will gather pace only if the central bank gives a clear indication of further easing later today. All 33 economists surveyed by Bloomberg see a rate cut, though the magnitude differs from 20 basis points to 40 basis points. Ten-year bonds have sold off despite the RBI cutting rates by an unconventional 35 basis points in August. The reason: Governor Shaktikanta Das's comment that a 50 basis-point reduction would have been excessive cast doubt about the size of future decreases. Read More

Give Me More… The Rs 645 crore IPO of Indian Railway Catering and Tourism Corporation was subscribed almost 112 times, making it the most successful share sale in over 20 months. Led by demand from institutions and rich investors, the IPO got bids for 225.6 crore shares compared to the total issue size of 2.02 crore shares, data on the NSE showed. This makes it the best subscribed IPO since Apollo Micro Systems which was subscribed 250.7 times and Amber Enterprises India which was subscribed 115.3 times, both of which had been launched in January 2018. Read More

WHO'S
PMC Potboiler… HDIL promoters Rakesh and Sarang Wadhawan have been arrested in the first detentions over alleged irregularities at Punjab & Maharashtra Cooperative Bank. The Economic Offences Wing of Mumbai police said assets worth Rs 3,500 crore belonging to the realty company, pledged as collateral to the bank, had been provisionally attached. An official pegged the fund diversion at Rs 6,500 crore or more, allegedly facilitated through the creation of more than 20,000 fake bank accounts. The government has roped in Grant Thornton to carry out a forensic investigation into fraud-hit bank. Read More

To Huawei or Not To?… Two big twists were added over two days to the already complicated 5G-Huawei issue. On Thursday, Bharti Enterprises chairman and telecom heavyweight Sunil Mittal rebutted US secretary of commerce Wilbur Ross and argued that India should consider deploying Huawei's 5G network. A day earlier foreign minister S Jaishankar had said 5G was a telecom issue and not a political one and that in terms of negotiations with China, India would "largely take a bilateral approach. Read More

Meanwhile...Two Fed policymakers on Thursday signalled they are open to delivering another rate cut after a report showed the growth in the vast US services sector is slowing, but the Fed's No. 2, speaking late in the day, gave little away on his own thinking. The Fed "will act as appropriate to sustain a low unemployment rate and solid growth and stable inflation," Fed Vice Chairman Richard Clarida said in New York, repeating a phrase Fed Chair Jerome Powell has used ahead of meetings when the Fed did cut rates, as well as in June, when it didn't. Read More
KEY INDICES
15,715  -10.05
12,910  -48.79
28,414  -311.4
15,278  -22.3
Price Movers|Volume Movers|Near 52 Week High|Near 52 Week Low

Stocks to Watch >>>

    Private equity funds SSG, Apollo Global, Oaktree Capital, Brookfield and others are negotiating with lenders to revive the mortgage lender Altico Capital after its key shareholders expressed their inability to invest more equity, three people familiar with the matter said.

    Yes Bank shares rebounded sharply after CEO Ravneet Gill assuaged investor concerns on the bank's financial position and reiterated the its commitment to stable asset quality, retail business growth and increase in its liability franchise.

    United Bank of India has shelved its Rs 1,500-crore capital raising plan ahead of the proposed three-way merger with Punjab National Bank and Oriental Bank of Commerce. The Centre, instead, will pitch in with Rs 1,666 crore.

    The stock of M&M has lost 29% over the past 12 months on account of slack demand. The announcement of its joint venture with Ford India may have a limited effect on its stock valuation given the weak demand for its high-margin tractor division and rising headwinds for the passenger car business in the form of new emission norms.

    Tata Steel is weighing a sale of its stake in an e-commerce joint venture as India's largest steel manufacturer looks to offload non-core assets to pare debt, people with knowledge of the matter said. The company is working with advisers on a potential sale of its 50% stake in mjunction Services, an online marketplace for commodities from steel, diamonds to grains and tea.

UnQuote: STATE OF THE MARKET
Next 5 years, I would buy both gold and equities
Rakesh Jhunjhunwala

Day Planner:

    RBI interest rate decision
    Markit Services PMI for India
    India Sept forex reserve
    Fed Chair Powell Speech
    US Sept unemployment rate
    US Aug balance of trade

OUTLOOK

AUTO STOCKS
    Gautam Shroff of Edelweiss Securities says there is a big scope for two- wheelers to come back in a big way, given the upcoming festive season now. In the four-wheeler space, I would want to stick only to Maruti because the management has come out in the open and given some confidence that we are seeing demand returning.

SILVER
    Kotak Securities says silver along with gold has benefitted from a correction in the US dollar. A rebound in gold and mixed trade in industrial metals has lent support to silver price. Silver has witnessed a sharp recovery after taking support near $16.8/oz level.

RUPEE
    IFA Global says the rupee is expected to remain under pressure as the turmoil in the banking and NBFC space could continue to dampen risk sentiment onshore as investors would want to ascertain the exact scale of the problem. The focus will be on RBI policy review today


STOCKS RECOMMENDATIONS
Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd. 4 Oct, 2019 | 08:31 AM IST buyBuy
HCL Technologies Ltd. 4 Oct, 2019 | 08:29 AM IST buyAdd


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