Thursday, 13 August 2020

Well-heeled investors find new goldmine | DHFL bonds selling at 80% discount | Retail ownership of top stocks hits a high

MORNING NEWSLETTER

14 Aug, 2020 | 08:55 AM IST


Good Morning!

Market analysts have begun making projections on US presidential polls. Fidelity International says a sweeping victory for Joe Biden plus Democratic majorities in both houses of Congress would be the best outcome for the US economy in the long run, though investors might take fright in the first few weeks. UK fund manager Schroders says markets are not yet pricing in a Biden victory, but they should. Some Wall Street analysts are warning a Biden presidency will not be good for the stock market. Jim Cramer of Mad Money fame blamed Wednesday's stocks rout on Biden. "This to me is a Biden move," he said.
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MARKET CUES: Where do we stand >>>

    Nifty futures on the Singapore Exchange traded 8 point lower at 7 am (IST) this morning, signaling a weak start for Dalal Street.

    On Thursday, Nifty ended flat but managed to hold above the 11,300 level. The index once again formed a Spinning Top on the daily chart, suggesting indecisiveness.

    Asian shares traded flat to negative early Friday as markets weighed a pause in Wall Street's multi-month stock rebound. Japan's Nikkei was up 0.19 per cent but Singapore's Strait Times, China's Shanghai Composite and Hong Kong's Hang Seng traded with cuts.

    In overnight trade, the S&P 500 ended slightly lower after briefly trading above its record closing high level for a second day. Dow dipped but the Nasdaq nudged higher.

    The Indian rupee closed nearly flat at 74.84 to the US dollar on Thursday, tracking listless domestic equities and higher crude oil prices.

    The dollar drifted higher on Friday, helped by strong US jobs data. It traded firmly against the risk-sensitive Australian and New Zealand dollars. The Japanese yen and the pound also soften while other majors were mostly flat, but the euro hovered above $1.18.

    Oil prices advanced on Friday and were heading for a second week of gains. Brent crude rose 14 cents, or 0.3%, to $45.10, while WTI gained 12 cents, or 0.3%, to $42.36

    Gold prices steadies at Rs 52,701 per 10 gm on subdued global cues and weaker dollar, while silver rose to Rs 67,439 per kg on Thursday. On MCX, gold futures for October touched Rs 52,823 after rising 1% while silver futures for September rallied 6% to Rs 70,690. In international markets, spot gold rose 1.5% to $1,947.08 per ounce, after slipping below $1,900 on Wednesday.

LOOK WHO'S

Tatas confirm bid for Air India… The Tata Group has begun due diligence on beleaguered national carrier Air India and may make a formal bid close to the official deadline at the end of this month. The focus at the moment is to examine business synergies and viability, it is learnt. Officials said it is too early for discussions around funding or the possible business structure till the due diligence is complete. Read More

Retail ownership of top stocks hit a high… Retail ownership of India's biggest stock indices — the Nifty 50 and Nifty 500 — reached a decadal high in the June quarter, with 3.5 million new savers opening demat accounts in the last five months to buy into India's growth story. And the rise in retail ownership in Nifty 50 companies suggests small investors are buying quality companies this time — unlike in the past. Read More

Global bonds new flavor of the well-heeled… After a few asset managers and private banks started offering "leverage options" to increase gains, global bond portfolios have turned a big draw for these investors. In fact, over half a dozen investment firms with offshore offices have individually raised $25–40 million over the past few months, industry sources said, even though the product is only distributed in a closed loop by a small segment of top-end wealth managers. Read More

Overseas investors lap up distressed debt… Overseas debt investors appear to be buying Indian distressed assets again after a prolonged pause. About Rs 7,000 crore of Dewan Housing Finance (DHFL) bonds changed hands in the secondary market in the past few weeks, albeit at discounts of 70-80%. Deutsche Bank (DB) was the sole buyer of the bonds, top industry sources told ET, likely on behalf of clients overseas. Read More

IDFC First Bank, IDFC mull reverse merger… Four years after it was first suggested, the proposal of a reverse merger between IDFC First Bank and IDFC Ltd has been revived, two top industry sources told ET. This will involve the holding company being absorbed by the bank, which will seek regulatory approval for such a move on the grounds that it will simplify the structure, they said. Read More

AND WHO'S

Stock rally fails to life MF SIP book… The current rally in the benchmark equity indices after a sharp fall in March is yet to result in a recovery in the SIP book. In July, 7.2 lakh SIP accounts were discontinued, the highest in any month since April 2016, when the Amfi started disclosing the data. The number of discontinued accounts has been rising for the past three months. Read More

MSCI halves Airtel weightage… Global index service provider MSCI has almost halved Bharti Airtel's weightage on its Indian and MSCI indices from September 1, a move that could force foreign investors to cut exposure to the stock. Macquarie said in a sales note that the cut in weight was caused by a fall in free float to 23% from 45% following the change in foreign ownership limit from 74% to 49%. Shares of Bharti Airtel declined 2.25% to Rs 535 on Thursday. Read More

Retail inflation inches closer to 7%... Retail inflation inched close to the 7% mark in July, accelerating higher than expectations on the back of hardening food prices. The consumer price index rose an annual 6.9% in the previous month, higher than the upwardly revised 6.2% in June, dashing hopes of any interest rate cuts for now. Food inflation soared to an annual 9.6% in July from 8.7% in the previous month as supply disruptions continued to take toll. Read More

Domestic air traffic drops 82%... India's domestic airlines registered a 82.3% decline year-on-year in the number of passengers flown in July, as depleted demand for travel due to the pandemic continued to impact air travel. Local carriers carried about 2.1 million passengers in July, compared with 11.9 million a year ago but slightly more than about 2 million passengers in the previous month. Read More

Meanwhile...
Faceless tax assessment to all taxpayers… Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Thursday expanded the faceless assessment scheme to all taxpayers, unveiled a single-page Taxpayers' Charter and promised a faceless appeal mechanism from next month. He urged citizens to be more tax-compliant, pointing to the fact there are just 1.5 crore taxpayers in a country with a population of 130 crore. Read More
KEY INDICES
16,525 + 255.95
13,940 + 105.52
22,196  -67.65
18,107 + 41.2
Price Movers|Volume Movers|Near 52 Week High|Near 52 Week Low

For in-depth stock analysis, live market updates & more, download ET Markets App

Stocks to Watch >>>

Larsen & Toubro Infotech and Mindtree will avoid client overlaps and competing in same categories till parent entity L&T decides on their merger, the chief executives said.

Tata Steel posted a Rs 4,648 crore loss for June quarter as demand dropped due to the new coronavirus and output reduced after its plants scaled down operations during the lockdown.

The ED wrote to SBI last month to freeze nine accounts in one of its branches, including that of JK Tyre & Industries, under the Prevention of Money Laundering Act.

Hit hard by the coronavirus disruption, the country's largest two-wheeler maker Hero MotoCorp reported a 95% drop in June quarter profit at Rs 61 crore against Rs 1,257 crore in the year-ago period.

Eicher Motors subsidiary Volvo Eicher Commercial Vehicles has entered a 'business transfer agreement' with Volvo Group India to acquire its Swedish partner's bus business in India for just over Rs 100 crore.

UnQuote: AUTO OUTLOOK
Vibes are good in auto; ancillaries should do better
Kunj Bansal, Partner & CIO at Sarthi Group

The DAY PLANNER

    Earnings: Berger Paint | Fortis | Glenmark | Hindalco | MRF | NTPC | Voltas
    China July House Price Index (07.00 am)
    China July Industrial Production (07.30 am)
    China July Unemployment Rate (07.30 am)
    India July WPI inflation (12.00 pm)
    Euro Area June Balance of Trade (02.30 pm)
    RBI Forex Reserve as of Aug 7 (05.00 pm)
    July India Bank Loan/Deposit Growth (05.00 pm)
    July India Balance of Trade (05.30 pm)
    US July Industrial Production (06.45 pm)

OUTLOOK

Why Airtel remains a laggard
    Kunj Bansal of Sarthi Group says on Airtel and ICICI Bank, the view of almost all market participants is 100 per cent positive. "Now what typically happens in the market is when the view becomes one-sided, the market does not listen to any of you. It tests your patience, takes a lot of time before reacting to that. The view may be right, but the timing may not be right. Remember, Airtel was one of the very few outperformers for two years now. So a lot of expectations have already been built in," says he. Read More

Rate cut transmission good for NBFCs
    Nirmal Jain of IIFL Finance says the liquidity scenario has improved significantly. "Not only has liquidity improved, we are also seeing softening of interest rates. Rate cut transmission was not happening in the NBFC sector earlier, and there was a huge divergence in AAA borrowing cost and below AA. But in the last couple of weeks, we are seeing even that narrow down," says he. Read More

Largecaps to lead for 18 months
    Sunil Subramaniam of Sundaram Mutual says if one is looking for asset allocation within equities with a three-year horizon, a 50-30-20 largecap-midcap-smallcap would be a good mix. "With that understanding in mind, I think double-digit returns are definitely on the table. Your asset allocation must be this way, because over the next 18 months, largecaps will continue to be the leader. Then midcaps and smallcaps will begin their journey," says he. Read More

STOCKS RECOMMENDATIONS
Galaxy Surfactants Ltd. 13 Aug, 2020 | 12:39 PM IST buyBuy
Hindalco Industries Ltd. 13 Aug, 2020 | 10:49 AM IST buyBuy


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