Sunday 16 August 2020

Sebi mulls T+1 settlement for stocks I Is RBI considering gold buying? I Amazon stake throne in RIL-Future talks

MORNING NEWSLETTER

17 Aug, 2020 | 08:40 AM IST


Good Morning!

By definition, growth stocks are the ones that have the potential to outperform because of better scope for future earnings expansion, while value stocks are the ones currently trading below what they are worth. On Wall Street, the value group now trades way below their growth peers. The P/E ratio of iShares Russell 1000 Value ETF stood at 17.1 on August 11 against iShares Russell 1000 Growth Index ETF's 35.3. The former is up mildly from 16.8 in December 2019 while the latter has gone up from 27.4. Analysts attribute this to sky-high valuations of technology names. That, some argue, should change as value should do well when investors are willing to look forward and estimate better future earnings. Will that be a trend everywhere?

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MARKET CUES: Where do we stand >>>

    Nifty futures on the Singapore Exchange traded 11 point higher at 7 am (IST) this morning, signaling a tepid start for Dalal Street.

    Last Friday, Nifty shuttled between a high and low of 11,366 and 11,111 levels before closing 122 points, or 1.08 per cent, down at 11,178. In the process, the index formed a large bearish engulfing candle on the daily chart. Analysts said the upside may remain capped in the coming sessions.

    Stocks in Asia began the week mixed as investors assessed soured US-China ties as well as cash injections by the Chinese central bank. The market opened modestly higher in China after the central bank injected liquidity into the financial system. Equities in Japan and Australia were lower, while South Korea closed for a holiday.

    US stocks closed mixed on Friday after reports showed the economic recovery slowed and stimulus talks reached a stalemate. The S&P500 fell less than 0.1% after fluctuating near all-time highs for much of the day, the Dow edged 0.1% higher while the Nasdaq ended in the red.

    The rupee settled 6 paise lower at 74.90 against US dollar on Friday tracking weak domestic equities.

    The dollar slipped in Asian trade. The yen gained 0.1% to the greenback as did the offshore yuan. The euro was little changed.

    Oil prices climbed higher on Monday, lifted by China's plans to ship in large volumes of US crude in August and September. Brent crude rose 21 cents, or 0.5%, to $45.01 while WTI crude gained 27 cents, or 0.6%, to $42.28.

    Gold prices fell sharply in India last week, tracking a decline in global markets. On Friday, October gold futures fell 1.5% to Rs 52,170 per 10 gm. For the week, gold was down about Rs 2,600. Silver slumped 5.5% to Rs 67,220 per kg. In global markets, spot gold fell 4.4% for the week to $1,945 in London.

LOOK WHO'S

Sebi weighs T+1 stock settlement… A faster trade settlement system for Indian stocks is in the offing. Sebi is considering a reduction in the settlement cycle for completion of share transactions to T+1 — an abbreviation for 'trade plus one day' — from the existing T+2. The move, when implemented, is expected to improve liquidity, boost efficiency and reduce risks to the system. Read More

Banks may offer some home loan rejig… Lenders, including SBI, are working on restructuring options for home loans where the overall tenure of the loan does not extend by more than two years, even after relaxing the repayment schedule. The options include allowing EMI deferment for a few months in cases where the borrower has suffered total loss of income or allowing step-up EMIs, with a lower payout for a couple of years to make up for a reduction in salary or loss of income due to the pandemic. Read More

General insurers log solid growth… The general insurance industry has posted 18 per cent year-on-year growth at Rs 17,011 crore in July, compared with the year-ago period. The industry has seen premiums of Rs 56,340 crore till July — a recovery to pre-Covid levels. This growth has been driven by fire, crop and health insurance. Read More

E-comm firms forecast mega festive sales… India's two biggest ecommerce marketplaces, Amazon and Walmart-owned Flipkart, expect this year's festival-season business in smartphones, television sets, refrigerators, washing machines and apparel to nearly double for some categories and increase at least 40% in others, top industry executives told ET. The platforms have accordingly asked sellers to place large orders with the respective brands. Read More

AND WHO'S

RBI weighs slowing dollar buying… RBI's central board meeting last week weighed if it should keep amassing forex reserves or start buying more gold. Some of the board members said the recent build-up of reserves has created adequate cover and the cost of buying more dollars may outweigh the gains from an overflowing reserves chest. A few board members felt there was probably a need to diversify the allocation of reserves more in favour of gold. Read More

Amazon stake thorn in RIL-Future deal… Amazon, Reliance group and Kishore Biyani's Future are engaged in hard-nosed negotiations over the extent of stake the Seattle-based retail giant will hold in the combined Reliance-Future entity, people close to the negotiations said. While Reliance is willing to cede only a minor stake of 1-2%, Amazon wants to hold atleast 5-6%, these people added. The purchase of a minority stake in a key Future group holding company last year gave Amazon special rights and also veto power over any investment or sale of stake by promoter Kishore Biyani. Read More

Diesel sales drop by one-fifth in Aug… Diesel sales dropped by a fifth in the first half of August compared with a month ago, indicating that extended regional lockdowns, sluggish economic recovery and high prices are blocking full revival of fuel demand. Demand for diesel slipped 19% while that for petrol gained 2% during August first half compared with the same period in July, according to the provisional sales data of state-run oil companies. Read More

NCR realty fails to look up… The National Capital Region (NCR)'s real estate has lost its sheen — the region now contributes just 9% of sales to overall cities' tally, selling a tenth of its peak numbers while other cities including Mumbai, Bengaluru and Pune are now two-three times bigger, surging both in terms of sales as well as investor return, according to a study by Knight Frank that analysed data of first half of 10 years of top eight cities. Read More

Meanwhile...
Trade balance in deficit again, but rupee safe… India's trade balance may have slipped back into deficit, but it may not get out of hand and hurt the rupee as it did in the past. Analysts expect the current account to be in surplus in the current fiscal year due to factors such as low crude oil prices as well as tepid demand for gold. Read More
KEY INDICES
16,383  -141.55
13,855  -84.46
21,679  -516.95
18,023  -84.55
Price Movers|Volume Movers|Near 52 Week High|Near 52 Week Low

For in-depth stock analysis, live market updates & more, download ET Markets App

Stocks to Watch >>>

Prices of natural gas in India are likely to be cut to $1.9-1.94 — the lowest in more than a decade — from October, denting revenues of producers such as ONGC who are already incurring huge losses on gas production.

Reliance Industries is in talks to buy e-commerce companies Urban Ladder and Milkbasket, say sources, even as the conglomerate is also reportedly in talks to acquire e-pharma Netmeds and lingerie retailer Zivame.

Greenko, backed by GIC and ADIA, leads the race to acquire US-based large-scale battery installer NEC Energy Solutions at an enterprise valuation of $300-400 million.

Industrial and warehousing parks developer Indospace has emerged as the frontrunner to acquire Bengaluru-based Embassy Industrial Parks at an enterprise value of Rs 1,800 crore.

IDBI Bank rejected a revised offer from Mauritius-based Royal Partner for Essar group arm EPC Constructions, after the investor sought a 10% discount on its previous offer of Rs 1,150 crore citing the company's "value erosion" during insolvency proceedings.

UnQuote: HELICOPTER MONEY
Money printing by Fed and RBI is never going to make you rich
Marc Faber, author of Gloom, Boom & Doom Report

The DAY PLANNER

    Japan Q2 GDP Growth Preliminary Print (05.20 am)
    Japan June Industrial Output (10.00 am)
    Canada June New Car Sales (06.00 pm)
    Aug US NAHB Housing Market Index (07.30 pm)

OUTLOOK

Why is everyone talking of a selloff
    Rahul Shah of Motilal Oswal says the market has seen a very good rally in last two months. "It is far ahead of the valuations and of ground reality. Nifty had a fantastic run and we are just 6-7 per cent away from Pre-Covid levels. There could be a correction of 5-6 per cent now. Bank Nifty or banking stocks have been laggards so far. The underperformance of bank stocks are around 25-28 per cent. We could see some kind of a selloff in the near term," says he. Read More

Why global cyclicals are the place to be
    Aditya Narain of Edelweiss Securities says in their model portfolio, his team has taken a distinct overweight view on global cyclicals. "On things like metals and commodities, including soft commodities, we have taken a pretty aggressive call on some of the Indian businesses catering heavily to global markets, where the export ability and momentum can be quite large. From our perspective, the relative pump-priming of global markets is something that is going to drive the economic recoveries quicker," says he. Read More

How to play financials now
    Sridhar Sivaram of Enam Securities says in financials, his team's preference has been for larger private sector banks. "They all have managed to raise capital. We do expect that there could be a spike in NPAs. Not the banks, none of us can even guess right now what exactly that number is going to be hypothetically. We take the number what Reserve Bank has suggested and if the actual number for the private sector banks were to be lesser than that, there is an upside to these stock prices for the private sector banks," says he. Read More

STOCKS RECOMMENDATIONS
Aurobindo Pharma Ltd. 14 Aug, 2020 | 11:21 AM IST buyBuy
Ashok Leyland Ltd. 14 Aug, 2020 | 11:29 AM IST buyBuy


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