Thursday, 7 November 2019

MSCI ups weightage for China A shares | Free cash flow dries up for India Inc | Share pledge rule hits borrowing plans

MORNING NEWSLETTER

8 Nov, 2019 | 08:21 AM IST


Good Morning!

The market dynamic has shifted in favour of largecaps, with the biggest chunk of government benefits going to them and global liquidity chasing these stocks at a time when equity indices are no longer reflecting the fundamentals. As Ajay Srivastava of Dimensions Corporate Finance puts it, historic lows of growth and historic highs of market do not sound good together. "We are very clear that India is for largecaps, there is no point of bottom fishing," says he.

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STREET PULSE: Where we stand
Stocks rallied to near record highs on Friday after China said it had agreed with the US to cancel tariffs in phases. HERE'S WHAT TO WATCH

    SGX Nifty traded some 50 points lower at 7 am (IST), signalling possible weakness ahead on Dalal Street. MSCI index for Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan edged up 0.2% in early trade while Tokyo's Nikkei jumped 0.75% to hit a 13-month high.
    In overnight trade, US stocks pared gains on the report of the opposition to the deal in Washington, but Dow and S&P500 did close at all-time highs. Nasdaq missed a record close by less than two-tenths of a point. S&P500 ended 0.27% higher at 3,085.

Crude oil futures fell. WTI crude slipped 15 cents, or 0.2%, to $57 a barrel. The contract rose 1.4% on Thursday. Read More

The rupee pared its initial losses to settle flat at 70.97 against the US dollar on Thursday after the US-China trade deal hopes enthused investor sentiments.

LOOK WHO'S

Thaw Before the Deal... China and the US have agreed to roll back tariffs on each others' goods in a "phase one" trade deal if it is completed, officials from both sides said on Thursday, sparking division among some advisers to President Donald Trump. The Chinese commerce ministry said the two countries had agreed to cancel the tariffs in phases. A US official confirmed the rollback would be part of the first phase of a trade agreement. Read More

Advantage Mumbai... Mumbai Metropolitan Region is the second largest market in terms of stuck housing projects, and experts believe the maximum resolution through the government's Rs 25,000 crore lifeline can be achieved in this region. Potential to attract price realisation and better demand pattern are expected to push revival of several unfinished residential projects in the region with the help of the stress fund, industry experts said. Read More

WHO'S
Cash-Less?... Free cash flow of 98 manufacturing companies in the BSE 200 index turned negative in FY19 for the first time since FY13, showed data from Bloomberg. FCF, which is the cash left after paying for operating expenses and capital expenditure, reflects the ability to invest in future growth. It was negative Rs 13,258 crore in FY19 compared with over Rs 73,632 crore in FY18 and much lower than the peak of Rs 1 lakh crore hit in FY16. About one-third of the sample companies reported negative cash flow. Read More

Funding Drought… A major source of raising funds for promoters has dried up with lenders tightening the terms of borrowing against shares as collateral. Promoters are finding it unviable to take loans from mutual funds against pledged shares after Sebi recently tightened norms, while NBFCs have become choosy about lending against shares, as tight liquidity conditions and an uncertain market outlook have heightened concerns over defaults. Mutual funds and NBFCs have been the biggest lenders to promoters in recent years. Read More

China's A game... Global index provider MSCI said mainland Chinese stocks, or A shares, will rise to a weight of 4.1% in the MSCI Emerging Market Index, up from 2.55% currently, as it implements the final step of the weight increase of Chinese shares in its widely-followed emerging markets benchmark. Read More

Meanwhile...
The government has no plan to participate in the rescue of DHFL saddled with nearly Rs 1 lakh crore debt. A consortium - led by Union Bank and SBI - was set up to restructure DHFL's debt a month after it first defaulted in June. But having struggled to come up with a rescue plan, the banks last week turned to the government for help. Read More
KEY INDICES
16,796 + 114.4
13,546 + 73.02
30,633 + 23.55
15,624 + 63.1
Price Movers|Volume Movers|Near 52 Week High|Near 52 Week Low

Stocks to Watch >>>

    The Bombay High Court on Thursday directed DHFL promoters Dheeraj and Kapil Wadhawan to stay in the country until the mid-month hearing in a case filed by its creditor, 63 Moons Technologies

    The board of fraud-hit CG Power & Industrial Solutions has sought a moratorium of 18-24 months from lenders to help revive the company and repay its "legitimate" loans. A plan is being worked out with the lenders, said Narayan Seshadri, independent director and now one of the custodians overseeing the company's resurrection.

    Baring PE Asia has emerged as the sole bidder to acquire a controlling stake in CanFin Homes, a Canara Bank subsidiary. Two other contenders Aditya Birla Capital and Warburg Pincus pulled out on Thursday

    Textile-focused conglomerate Raymond will demerge its core lifestyle business and list it as a separate entity. This will create two separate companies and the new entity will house the core branded textile, branded apparel and garment businesses.

    Adani Transmission aims to raise up to $500 million (about Rs 3,500 crore) through the issue of foreign currency bonds to refinance its debt, the company said on Thursday.

    The government has ordered a probe by SFIO into the affairs of CG Power and its associate entities after a report submitted to the MCA found instances of alleged 'related-party' transactions and 'suspected fund diversions'

    Qatar Airways said on Thursday that it is interested in investing only in IndiGo, and not Air India, but that it is not the right time to invest in the private carrier.

UnQuote: THE HIT
Fall in small stock transactions, IPOs pulled down BSE revenue
Ashishkumar Chauhan, BSE

The DAY PLANNER

    Q2 earnings: M&M | Ashok Leyland | Allahabad Bank | BoB | Bharat Forge | Crisil | Eicher Motors | GAIL | Indiabulls Realty | IDBI | IDFC I MRF | Sobha | Tata Power
    RBI forex reserves
    RBI loan/deposit
    US Oct vehicle sales
    China Oct balance of trade

OUTLOOK

NBFC STOCKS
    Aashish Sommaiyaa of Motilal Oswal AMC says his fund is looking very actively at mortgage finance NBFCs. "Just because of what happened last year, one should not think the sector is either not needed or to be excluded. There are very good companies which actually have no issues with liability franchise," he says

TITAN
    Devang Mehta of Centrum India says Titan is a buy or an accumulator for him. "The management came out and talked straight forward about cutting the guidance from 20% to around 11%. It does not hamper the prospects of a company, which has been at the forefront of all these businesses. My view is if you get another 5-7% correction, you should start accumulating Titan if you want to construct a portfolio for the next two-three years.

GOLD
    Vandana Bharti of SMC Comtrade says if the trade talks go further in a positive direction, there will be more pressure on gold. "If prices fall below $1,480 an ounce, we will see a fresh low at $1,465." The yellow metal is inching down and losing some of its safe-haven appeal after China said that it had agreed with the US in the past two weeks to a phased cancellation of the additional tariffs

STOCKS RECOMMENDATIONS
Raymond Ltd. 7 Nov, 2019 | 08:12 AM IST buyBuy
SRF Ltd. 7 Nov, 2019 | 08:00 AM IST buyBuy


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