Wednesday, 27 November 2019

FII positions signal more upside for Nifty50 | Top PE players eye DHFL stake | HDFC target price rises to Rs 2,000

MORNING NEWSLETTER

28 Nov, 2019 | 08:19 AM IST


Good Morning!

High prices of select stocks when the economy is at a low is suggesting a disconnect between the economy and the market. NSE Midcap index is almost 20-25% below peak, and the Smallcap index 40% off peak. But that's not the case with largecaps. Analysts say with the liquidity tap on, the market in giving robust valuation multiples to companies wherever there is comfort on growth, ignoring the rest, which is what has created these aberrations.

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STREET PULSE: Where we stand
Nifty futures on Singapore Exchange traded 22 points down at 7 am, signalling weakness ahead on Dalal Street. Elsewhere in Asia, share markets wobbled as concerns that tensions over Hong Kong could stymie a US-China trade deal cast a pall over Thanksgiving cheer from unexpectedly positive US economic data. HERE'S WHAT TO WATCH

    MSCI index for Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was little changed in early trade, while Japan's Nikkei flitted in and out of positive territory. Australia's S&P/ASX 200 touched a record intraday high in early trade, and was up 0.3%.

    Wall Street indices hit fresh record highs overnight buoyed by trade deal hopes. Dow rose 0.15%, the S&P500 0.42% and the Nasdaq 0.66%.

    Oil prices fell on Thursday, extending losses from the previous session after official data showed US crude and gasoline stocks rose against expectations and production hit a record. Brent crude futures slipped 16 cents, or 0.3%, to $63.90 a barrel while WTI crude fell 21 cents to $57.90

    The rupee on Wednesday appreciated by 15 paise to close at more than two-week high of 71.35 against the US dollar on gains in domestic equities and sustained foreign fund inflows.
LOOK WHO'S

MFs Get Zee Money... HDFC Mutual Fund, ICICI Prudential MF and Aditya Birla SL Mutual Fund have received payments from the Essel group after the promoters sold stake in Zee Entertainment Enterprises to repay lenders. The recovery is on loans that were given to Essel, with ZEE shares used as collateral. In a filing with the stock exchange, HDFC Mutual Fund said it has received Rs 167 crore toward part repayment of debt instruments, along with interest. Read More

FIIs Turn Bullish... Foreign funds have bought big in India this month and the last, pushing higher the broadest stock indices. And sustained reversal of their earlier bearish bets suggests the current 'bull' run will be of some duration, taking stock gauges even higher. Until November 27, FIIs have been net buyers of Indian shares worth Rs 22,710 crore this month. This short-covering and the likelihood of foreign funds turning net purchasers of index futures contracts could drive Nifty higher on further short squeeze. Read More

No Floor for Telecom Tariff… Setting a floor for mobile phone tariffs is now off the table, with the regulator and the telecom department unable to agree on the matter and private telcos Bharti Airtel, Vodafone Idea and Reliance Jio along with BSNL having decided to increase prices from next month, a senior government official said. Telcos appear to broadly agree there is no immediate need to set a floor price, given their intention to raise tariffs. Read More

WHO'S
No Recession Fears... Finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman said the Indian economy may be facing a slowdown but there's no danger of a recession taking hold. The government will make policy changes as and when required. "Every step being taken is in the interest of the country," the minister said in her reply to a discussion on the economic situation in the upper house of Parliament on Wednesday. "Looking at the economy in discerning view, you see that growth may have come down but it is not recession yet; it won't be recession ever." Read More

Tyagi Warning… Sebi Chairman Ajay Tyagi says brokers won't be allowed to misuse clients' securities as rules clearly prohibit it. He said the markets regulator was also looking at improving the existing norms on related party transactions for companies and concerns over independent directors not being "truly independent" especially in promoter-dominated companies. Tyagi's comments come in the wake of the regulator's recent crackdown on Karvy Broking for misusing clients' securities by pledging them with banks and an NBFC for raising funds for itself. Read More

Meanwhile...
Bad news for cab aggregators. The central government plans to cap the commission earned on rides by firms such as Uber and Ola to a maximum of 10% of the total fare in its upcoming rules for taxi aggregators, people privy to the matter said. This is the first time the government is looking to regulate the commission collected by such firms, which currently stands at about 20%. Further, state governments, if they choose to, could levy a charge on the aggregators' earnings. Read More
KEY INDICES
17,043 + 127.75
13,437 + 26.15
31,876 + 157.6
15,022 + 100.0
Price Movers|Volume Movers|Near 52 Week High|Near 52 Week Low

Stocks to Watch >>>

    KKR is doubling down on the India renewables story and is in advanced talks to buy the solar portfolio of Shapoorji Pallonji Group for Rs 1,500-1,750 crore

    Lenders to CG Power have appointed Belgium-headquartered auditing firm BDO to track daily fund flows of the firm and transactions by its management

    PE firms Apollo Capital and Cerberus are competing with the Adanis for a stake in DHFL, as they work out a revival package for the first financial company to be taken to NCLT

    The Blackstone Group, KKR & Co, Apax Partners, Advent International and Bain Capital are among the leading global private-equity companies engaged in early-stage discussions to acquire Granules India

    The country's second-largest credit card provider SBI Cards and Payment Services, is looking to raise around Rs 9,000 crore through an initial public offering where both the partners State Bank of India and Carlyle will together sell 14% stake, valuing the company at Rs 65,000 crore.

UnQuote: GROWTH CAPITAL
Not the leaders, bet on underdogs next 6-12 months
Dipan Mehta, Elixir Equities.

The DAY PLANNER

    US market holiday
    ECB Cœuré Speech
    US Fed Beige Book

OUTLOOK

AUTO STOCKS
    Rahul Shah of Motilal Oswal says he is looking at value buys in auto space. "Most auto stocks ran up 15% to 20% from their recent lows in the first leg. Now, only the stocks which have value and have good fundamentals would go up. Two-wheelers look more promising in that space," he said.

MIDCAPS
    Harsha Upadhyaya of Kotak AMC says total mutual fund allocation to Nifty stocks is currently at about 64%. In the past, whenever this ratio has crossed 65%, some sort of shift happened from largecaps to midcaps. We would soon see the peak for the largecap indices. In the next few months, the mid and smallcaps are likely to start performing much better than the largecaps.

HIGH PE STOCKS
    Pankaj Pandey of ICICIdirect.com says index multiple is going up because it has high multiple PE stocks. "It is a very stock-specific market. We have seen cracks in largecaps also and very good performance from some tier one companies, including midcaps and smallcaps. "My sense is wherever there is comfort on growth, the market has been giving robust multiples to a number of companies -- be it largecap, midcap or smallcap."

STOCKS RECOMMENDATIONS
Amara Raja Batteries Ltd. 27 Nov, 2019 | 12:52 PM IST buyBuy
Berger Paints (India) Ltd. 27 Nov, 2019 | 01:00 PM IST SellSell


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