Tuesday, 26 November 2019

Huge P/E comfort in midcaps | Will systems cleanup hurt more brokers? | Only 13 Indian stocks among 500 world toppers

MORNING NEWSLETTER

27 Nov, 2019 | 08:45 AM IST


Good Morning!

The current market high is an illusion. While Sensex and Nifty are at all-time highs, that's not the case with smallcaps, midcaps or dollex. The P/E premium of the MSCI India index over the MSCI Midcap index has reached a five-year high of 56.3%, but the ratio of midcaps to largecaps has dropped to the lowest level since 2012. This makes the risk-reward favourable for midcaps.

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STREET PULSE: Where we stand
Nifty futures on Singapore exchange traded 6 points down this morning, signalling indecisiveness on Dalal Street. Elsewhere in Asia, shares ticked higher on Wednesday as more upbeat signals from Sino-US trade talks fanned hopes of an imminent end to tariff hostilities. HERE'S WHAT TO WATCH

    MSCI index for Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan rose 0.14%. Australian shares added 0.46% and Japan's Nikkei gained 0.41%..

    On Wall Street, all three indices notched record closing highs on Tuesday: Dow Jones rose 0.2% to 28,121.68, the S&P500 gained 0.22% to 3,140.52 and the Nasdaq added 0.18% to 8,647.93.

    Crude oil price slipped after an industry report showed an unexpected build in US crude inventories, but optimism around the signing of the first phase of a US-China trade deal capped a deeper slide in prices. Brent futures dropped 19 cents, or 0.3%, to $64.08 a barrel while WTI crude futures fell 17 cents, or 0.29%, to $58.24

    The rupee on Tuesday rose by 24 paise to settle at an over two-week high of 71.50 against the US dollar as persistent foreign fund inflows and hopes about US-China trade logjam breakthrough boosted forex market sentiment.
LOOK WHO'S

Son-Rise at Arcelor... Aditya Mittal, scion of the LN Mittal empire, is likely to chair the board that will run Essar Steel, with directors drawn from the two acquiring partners — ArcelorMittal and Nippon Steel Corp of Japan. Top industry sources said both companies are working on putting together a core strategy and integration team as the world's biggest maker of the infrastructure alloy gets ready to take Essar Steel into its fold, marking Arcelor-Mittal's first major foray into India. Read More

Pharma Pricing Deal... The domestic drug industry and trade have agreed to the government's proposal to cap trade margins for all medicines outside price control at 30%, a move that will reduce the prices of nearly 80% of formulations. A consensus to this effect was reached at a meeting held on Friday between the drug pricing regulator, pharma lobby groups and industry associations. Read More

Bond ETFs Coming… The Union cabinet will soon consider what would be the country's first exchange traded fund for corporate bonds, Bharat Bond ETF, a government official has said. "The product is ready to be rolled out. It will soon go to cabinet for approval," he said. It is likely to be rolled out in mid-December, the person said. The ETF will have bonds of some central public sector units as underlying. Read More

WHO'S
Karvy Scam Skeletons... Hyderabad-based Karvy Stock Broking pledged securities worth Rs 2,300 crore of almost 95,000 clients with three private banks and a large NBFC as collateral to raise loans worth over Rs 600 crore for itself, two persons with direct knowledge of an ongoing Sebi probe into client positions of a number of retail brokers said. The outcome of the Sebi probe is yet to be made public. Last week, the markets regulator banned Karvy from taking new clients over client defaults worth Rs 2,000 crore. Read More

Indian Stocks Laggards Globally… Shares of Indian companies have been laggards in the ongoing global equities rally. Bloomberg 500, a list of top 500 companies by market capitalisation across the globe, has only 13 Indian stocks out of which eight have failed to even break into the top 200 in terms of year-to-date performance. Read More

Red Flag Over Mudra Loans… RBI deputy governor MK Jain on Tuesday raised red flags over rising non-performing assets in loans disbursed under the government's Mudra loan scheme and urged banks to monitor the repayment capacity of borrowers before disbursement. The Pradhan Mantri Mudra Yojana is a central government scheme under which small businesses can avail collateral-free working capital loan up to Rs 10 lakh. Read More

Meanwhile...
Institutional investors still assessing and lending to residential realty projects lately prefer projects seeking first-time funding while insisting a certain contribution from promoters as against refinancing deals that were in vogue a couple of quarters ago. In the backdrop of liquidity concerns and sluggish sales momentum, investors have turned more selective with type and structures of deals. Read More
KEY INDICES
16,915  -145.8
13,411  -50.94
31,718 + 162.45
14,922  -178.45
Price Movers|Volume Movers|Near 52 Week High|Near 52 Week Low

Stocks to Watch >>>

    ED has alleged that Bhushan Power & Steel acquired assets worth Rs 27,559 crore during a period when funds out of loans received from banks were "diverted and routed back as equity" by the company.

    Sebi has asked fraud-hit CG Power & Industrial Solutions to provide its ousted chairman Gautam Thapar and others' information they had sought on audit findings of financial irregularities in the company

    DoT has veered around to the view that Reliance Jio needs to shoulder some of Reliance Communications' over Rs 21,140 crore AGR-based dues, for the spectrum that the Mukesh Ambani-led telecom operator had bought from the bankrupt telco in 2016.

    Reliance Capital on Tuesday said it has defaulted on payments towards its obligations on bonds and interest generated towards the same.

    The Tata Group has infused Rs 231 crore into its three-year-old ecommerce business, Tata CLiQ, so far this fiscal and has increased authorised share capital of the venture from Rs 1,150 crore to Rs 1,500 crore.

    Oman India Joint Investment Fund II, a private equity fund co-sponsored by SBI and State General Reserve Fund of Oman (SGRF), has invested Rs 84 crore in Capital Small Finance Bank for a 9.90% stake

    A Competition Commission of India probe has found that units of Tata Steel, Sweden's SKF and Germany's Schaeffler colluded on the pricing of bearings

UnQuote: GROWTH CAPITAL
Don't take capital for granted, earn it by providing appropriate returns
Nilesh Shah, MD, Kotak AMC

The DAY PLANNER

    Nov API Crude Oil Stock Change
    ECB Lane Speech
    US GDP Growth Rate QoQ 2nd Est Q3
    US Nov Initial Jobless Claims
    MSCI semi-annual review of indices

OUTLOOK

MIDCAPS
    Sunil Subramaniam of Sundaram Mutual Fund says midcaps have clearly outperformed largecaps in earnings growth even for September quarter. "So if the largecaps have moved higher, it means from value perspective, midcaps have to catch up. It may take a little bit of time but all the bets we have taken will pay off," he says.

FMCG STOCKS
    Deven R Choksey KR Choksey Investment Managers says if you buy any of the FMCG companies, they have probably priced in things for next two years. "You should not be expecting any return out of them. On the contrary. you should be buying these companies if you want to have them in the portfolio by doing an SIP into this kind of stocks," he says.

RBI RATE CUT
    Sakshi Gupta, senior India economist at HDFC Bank, says further rate cuts by RBI are likely to have a limited impact on the economy as cost of borrowing is not the pressing issue. "Lack of risk appetite and fragile sentiment are holding back fresh investment in the economy," she said.

STOCKS RECOMMENDATIONS
Larsen & Toubro Ltd. 27 Nov, 2019 | 08:44 AM IST SellNeutral
AIA Engineering Ltd. 27 Nov, 2019 | 08:42 AM IST SellSell


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