Tuesday 19 November 2019

DHFL may be headed for NCLT | PMS ticket size set to double | FIIs get a high on midcaps

MORNING NEWSLETTER

20 Nov, 2019 | 08:37 AM IST


Good Morning!

Equity investing is not about the current, but about looking into the future. While current earnings are bad and economic growth rate has probably beeen the slowest, the market is feeling the worst is behind us and things will start improving soon. But high frequency data continues to disappoint and the rural economy remains fairly slow. Commentaries from some of the consumer names have not been encouraging either. All of that raises doubts if the market has gone slightly ahead. Have an ear to the ground!

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STREET PULSE: Where we stand
SGX Nifty traded some 25 points lower at 7 am (IST), signalling indecisiveness on Dalal Street. Elsewhere in Asia, shares lumbered lower as the Sino-US trade talks produced nothing but a stream of conflicting messages. HERE'S WHAT TO WATCH

    MSCI index for Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan slipped 0.25%. Japan's Nikkei eased 0.2% and South Korea's KOSPI 0.4%.

    An aggressive tone from President Trump on trade talks unsettled Wall Street in overnight trade and Dow ended down 0.36%, while the S&P500 lost 0.06%. The Nasdaq added 0.24%.

    Brent crude futures stood at $60.91 a barrel early on Wednesday, after sliding 2.6% overnight, after figures from the American Petroleum Institute out late Tuesday showed a far larger rise in crude stocks than expected. WTI crude recouped a single cent to $55.22.

    The rupee recovered from initial losses to settle higher by 13 paise at 71.71 against the dollar on Tuesday, propped up softening crude oil prices and gains in domestic equity markets
LOOK WHO'S

Tighter PMS Rules... Sebi is likely to tighten rules for portfolio management services and shorten the timeline for rights offers. These decisions, along with a few others, are expected to be taken at the market regulator's board meeting on Wednesday. Accordingly the net worth requirement for portfolio managers may more than double to Rs 5 crore from Rs 2 crore, minimum investment ticket size in such products may rise to Rs 50 lakh from Rs 25 lakh and broker commissions set to get tighter. These norms are aimed at reducing mis-selling and weeding out fly-by-night operators. Read More

High on Midcaps... Overseas funds had raised ownership in more than 60 midcaps in the September quarter. Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, Eastspring Investments, Euro Pacific Growth Fund, Fidelity, Government Pension Fund, Nomura and Norges Bank have continued this trend in the third quarter, buying more into HDFC Life, Apollo Tricoat Tubes, Yes Bank, Welspun Corp, Fortis Healthcare, Eris Lifesciences and Dishman Carbogen Amcis in the past one month. Read More

WHO'S
DHFL Heading for NCLT... Lenders are likely to ask the RBI to refer DHFL to the NCLT after rules were changed last week to bring nonbanking financial companies within the ambit of the bankruptcy code. The referral, which will happen after the RBI informs the government and a notification is issued, will help ease DHFL's troubles that began in September 2018 with the credit crunch caused by the collapse of IL&FS. Another person close to the development said the RBI has already informed the department of financial services about referring DHFL and two other NBFCs to the NCLT. Read More

Independent Director Exits… The exit of independent directors from India Inc. boards has gained momentum, with the number more than doubling in the first six months of this financial year. An estimated 291 independent members of boards of companies in the Nifty500 resigned in the six months ended September compared with 126 a year earlier. Half the directors quit when their terms ended, while the remainder left, citing other reasons. Read More

Slower Job Growth… The pace of employment growth in India slowed in the last two years with job creation growing at 3.9% in 2017-18 and 2.8% in 2018-19, a study by ratings agency CARE Ratings showed. Based on a set of 1,938 companies spread across sectors, the study said the value of sales in FY19 was Rs 69 lakh crore, thus covering the entire corporate sector. It includes all listed public sector entities but the SME segment may find less representation in this sample. Read More

Meanwhile...
In conflicting signals from US-China trade talks, US President Donald Trump on Tuesday threatened to raise tariffs further if China would not agree to a deal that he liked. Hopes for progress on the dispute had risen earlier in the day when Bloomberg reported that the previous talks that failed in May were being considered as a benchmark on what US tariffs on China would be rolled back. Read More
KEY INDICES
16,968 + 36.05
13,405 + 41.9
31,236 + 244.15
15,305 + 9.6
Price Movers|Volume Movers|Near 52 Week High|Near 52 Week Low

Stocks to Watch >>>

    Tata Motors is embarking on its most ambitious rationalisation of product portfolio as Bharat Stage VI emission norms kick in by April 2020. It will have 400 new product programmes and 1,000 variants, come April, shedding 120-140 models from its portfolio

    The rush by airlines to add planes and launch flights on slots vacated by Jet Airways has led to overcapacity in the Indian market, slashed fares and losses piling up for carriers. According to the winter schedule, airlines have announced a high double-digit increase in capacity

    Reliance Jio said it would raise tariffs in the "next few weeks" and take other steps that the regulator would recommend to strengthen the industry and sustain investments.

    Britannia Industries has postponed product launches due to a consumption slump, which it expected to revive in 9-12 months

    Vodafone Idea and Bharti Airtel lost over 49 lakh users in September this year, while rival Reliance Jio added 69.83 lakh new users to its network, as per data from sectoral regulator Trai.

UnQuote: GROWTH REBOUND
Add alpha generators, but don't ditch the Nifty cos yet
Mahesh Patil, Aditya Birla Sun Life AMC.

The DAY PLANNER

    API Nov crude oil stock change
    Japan Oct balance of trade
    ECB financial stability review
    ECB Lane Speech

OUTLOOK

YES BANK
    Sudip Bandyopadhyay of Inditrade Capital says he has been bullish on Yes Bank for the last couple of months. "When it was around Rs 40, we have been recommending a buy. I think all the bad news has been factored in and it has got a large retail franchise, it has got a developed business, it has got a fantastic set of people at different levels. It cannot be written off when people were talking about value coming to zero and things like that," he said.

ESG INVESTING
    Margaret Franklin of CFA Institute says the ESG (environmental, social, and governance) trend is accelerating in both developing and developed markets and it has added a third dimension to the traditional world of risk and return. "Traditionally, we have looked at the two-dimensional world of risk and return. ESG adds the impact of a third dimension," she says.

CEMENT
    Deven R Choksey of KR Choksey Investment Managers says the price regime has quite stable in cement and that is looking positive. "Input costs are also remaining positive. Selectively we like companies with a larger capacity where they get the advantage of this kind of a better demand scenario and better price outlook. So, cement is certainly a commodity play," he said.

STOCKS RECOMMENDATIONS
Oil India Ltd. 20 Nov, 2019 | 08:31 AM IST buyBuy
Berger Paints (India) Ltd. 20 Nov, 2019 | 08:32 AM IST SellSell


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