Thursday 28 November 2019

F&O data shows financials to rally in Dec | HDFC MF marks down Simplex exposure | India stares at slowest GDP growth in 6 years

MORNING NEWSLETTER

29 Nov, 2019 | 08:34 AM IST


Good Morning!

Midcaps are the talk of the town. As investors scour for potential multibaggers among the second-rung stocks, one solid idea could be to look for companies that did not invest at the peak of the cycle, but used cash flows to deleverage and clean up their books. As market veteran Ajay Srivastava points out, there are companies that did not borrow, did not do capex, but kept on giving steady dividends all through the slump. There is some inherent strength in them, the cash flows are good but the stocks are down!

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STREET PULSE: Where we stand
Nifty futures on Singapore Exchange traded some 6 points down at 7 am (IST), signalling indecisiveness on Dalal Street. Elsewhere in Asia, shares ticked up, but hesitated to test an all-time peak as investors worried a new US law backing Hong Kong protests could derail the nations' efforts to end their trade war. HERE'S WHAT TO WATCH

    MSCI index for Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan ticked up 0.05% in early Friday trade. Japan's Nikkei gained 0.27%.

    US stock futures declined across the board on Thursday following a flareup in tensions between the US and China. Dow futures were off by as much as 144 points before paring losses. The index was last down 71 points, or 0.3%. US bourses were closed on Thursday for Thanksgiving.

    Oil prices were little changed on Friday, but looked set to have one of the best performances in recent months in November. Brent futures are up 6.0% so far this month, marking the biggest gain since April. On Friday, US crude futures were little changed at $58.09 a barrel early, up 7% for this month.

    The rupee dropped by 27 paise to close at 71.62 against the US currency on Thursday, ending its two-day winning run due to month-end dollar demand from oil importers and growth concerns ahead of GDP data release on Friday
LOOK WHO'S

Millionaires in the Making... Salesforce, Microsoft, Cohesity and Uber are set to offer crore-plus pay packages for the cream of engineering talent at IITs, where the final placements start this Sunday. Only two companies, Microsoft and Uber, had offered compensation packages in excess of Rs 1 crore last year. "Despite all the talk about a slowdown, it is shaping up to be a strong placement season. There are more companies this year offering big salary packages," said a placement coordinator at an IIT. Read More

Green Shoots in Rural India... Demand for daily household products and groceries in rural markets recovered sharply in September quarter, even as economic growth is likely to have slipped further in the quarter. Rural market by volume grew 4.4% in the July-September period from a year earlier when it had declined 2.4%, data from consumer research firm Kantar Worldpanel showed. The overall market expanded 3.1% during the quarter compared with a 1.7% contraction in the year-ago period. Read More

WHO'S
Slowest GDP Growth in 26 Quarters?... India's economy probably expanded at its weakest pace in more than six years in the quarter to September, a Reuters poll showed, as consumer demand and private investment weakened further and a global slowdown hit exports. The median of a poll of economists showed annual growth in gross domestic product of 4.7% in the quarter, down from 5.0% in the previous three months and 7% for the corresponding period of 2018. If the latest figure for expansion of gross domestic product is 4.7% or less, the quarter will have registered the slowest expansion in 26 quarters, since 4.3% in January-March 2013. Read More

Stocks Rally Set to Slow Down... F&O traders rolled over more Nifty shares than their three-month average, but the rolls were lower than that of the previous month. For Bank Nifty, the rollover from November to December was greater than the three-month average as well as that of October, signalling that the bank index could continue to outperform the bellwether index. Nifty rollover for November was 79.64% against the three-month average of 75.31%, but lower than 84.09% for October, which suggests the positive momentum might continue but the pace of buying may slow, analysts said. Read More

NBFC Loan Taps Dry Up… Credit disbursals by NBFCs have continued to slide despite government measures to boost bank funding to the sector. Loan sanctions fell 34% in September quarter, a year after unexpected defaults at IL&FS sparked off the NBFC liquidity crisis. Total NBFC sanctions fell to Rs 1.9 lakh crore at the end of September from Rs 2.9 lakh crore during the same period last year, CRIF High Mark credit bureau data showed. Read More

Meanwhile...
US President Donald Trump signed legislation expressing US support for Hong Kong protesters on Wednesday, prompting China to threaten retaliation just as the two nations get close to signing a phase one trade deal. Protesters in Hong Kong responded by staging a "Thanksgiving" rally, with thousands of people, some draped in US flags, gathering in the heart of the city. The law requires the State Department to certify, at least annually, that HK is autonomous enough to justify favourable US trading terms that have helped it become a world financial centre. It also threatens sanctions for human rights violations. The bill prompted China to warn of "firm counter-measures", unsettling financial markets globally. Read More
KEY INDICES
17,212 + 168.8
13,497 + 59.88
32,123 + 247.0
15,122 + 99.65
Price Movers|Volume Movers|Near 52 Week High|Near 52 Week Low

Stocks to Watch >>>

    A debt scheme of HDFC Mutual Fund has marked down the value of its holdings in Simplex Infrastructures after rating agency CARE downgraded the company from BBB to BB+.

    CCI has approved Amazon's proposed acquisition of minority stake in Future Group, paving the way for a closer integration of one of country's leading retail chain into the Amazon India online marketplace.

    SBI has refused to fund on its own Pantajali Ayurved's buyout of edible oil maker Ruchi Soya under the IBC for Rs 4,350 crore and demanded other lenders who benefit from the deal also to chip in

    Piramal Capital & Housing Finance is likely to test investor appetite with a Rs 1,000-1,500 crore bond sale, expected in the next few weeks.

    The Department of Investment and Public Asset Management has appointed Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu as advisor for the strategic sale of BPCL

    NCLT has ruled that Aircel has the 'right to use' its spectrum and directed the Department of Telecommunications not to suspend its licences.

UnQuote: ALPHA GENERATORS
Metal, pharma, and private banks to generate more alpha as economy turns around
Ajay Srivastava, CEO, Dimensions Corporate Finance Services

The DAY PLANNER

    India Q2 GDP growth rate
    India Oct infrastructure output
    RBI foreign exchange reserves
    India fiscal deficit for Oct
    ECB Lane Speech
    Oct mortgage lending

OUTLOOK

NBFC STOCKS
    Ajay Tyagi of UTI AMC says when the dust settles, a lot of NBFCs will have to do a lot of work in terms of rewriting their script and rewriting the rules of the games for themselves. The transition could actually take long. Some of the NBFCs, where the issues were much less grave, would be back on their feet fairly quickly and those who always conducted their affairs with prudence would be smiling all the way with a much better market share.

RIL
    Deven Choksey of KR Choksey says RIL's consumer-facing businesses -- Jio and the retail platform -- are probably going to be the money-spinning segments going forward. Sometime in 2021, the profit generated out of Jio platform could exceed the profit generated by refining and petrochemical polymer businesses.

PHARMA
    Ajay Srivastava of Dimensions Corporate Finance Services says the pharma sector which has underperformed for some time, is ready for a big jump because they sorted out a lot of US issues. "The domestic industries are doing well and there is no sign of price control. Corporate tax rate is going to give them some benefit; if dividend distribution tax goes, that is going to be big benefit," he said.

STOCKS RECOMMENDATIONS
Lupin Ltd. 29 Nov, 2019 | 08:17 AM IST buyBuy
Raymond Ltd. 29 Nov, 2019 | 08:13 AM IST buyBuy


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