Tuesday, 5 November 2019

FM says bold reforms coming | Sebi tightens P-notes rules | South, West realtors tap NCR deals

MORNING NEWSLETTER

6 Nov, 2019 | 08:18 AM IST


Good Morning!

How long can PE expansion drive a stock? Factors like extra liquidity, momentum buying, comparative advantage and broader economic sentiment inflate this measure for stocks all the time. And Sunil Singhania of Abakkus Asset Manager says in many such PE expansion cases in Indian market, if the stocks continue to grow at the rates they have grown at in last 5-10 years, it is going to be very tough for investors to make money in them. Point to ponder, surely.

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STREET PULSE: Where we stand
Asian shares were little changed this morning as investors awaited new developments toward scaling back a bruising trade war between the US and China. HERE'S WHAT TO WATCH

    SGX Nifty traded some 20 points lower at 7 am (IST), signalling possible weakness ahead on Dalal Street. MSCI index for Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was unchanged. Australian shares rose 0.14%, while Japan's Nikkei gained 0.35%.
    US stocks closed mostly higher Tuesday, with the Dow and Nasdaq ending the day at record highs, as investors welcomed better-than-expected data on the service sector and grew optimistic for a US-China trade deal. Dow rose 30.52 points to hit 27,492.63, Nasdaq edged 1.48 points to 8,434.68 but S&P500 ended 3.60 points lower.

Oil prices dropped on Wednesday after industry data showed a larger-than-expected build-up in US crude stockpiles. Brent crude futures fell by 23 cents to $62.73 a barrel, while WTI crude futures slipped 21 cents to $57.05. Read More

The rupee gained 8 paise to close at a fresh five-week high of 70.69 against the US dollar on Tuesday following foreign fund inflows and gains in Asian peers after Chinese central bank cut interest rates.

LOOK WHO'S

Bold Reforms Coming... Finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Tuesday said the government will soon use its strong electoral mandate to usher in the next wave of reforms, and not to miss the bus this time. Without naming the reform measures unsuccessfully attempted by the Modi government in its first term, she said government's efforts last time were thwarted by the poor numbers in the Upper House. Read More

Real Opportunity... Property developers in the Delhi-NCR region are partnering large builders from the country's South and West to restart projects, in the backdrop of a severe cash crunch, the stringent RERA and the threat of being taken to the NCLT. Financially strong firms like Prestige Group, Godrej Properties and Kalpataru Group have entered into joint ventures, joint development and development management agreements in the country's largest property market by volume. Read More

P-Notes Clampdown: Sebi has tightened rules on participatory notes (p-notes), or offshore derivative instruments issued by brokers to foreign investors not registered locally, while easing some operational norms for select overseas funds. The market regulator said FPIs would have to make separate registrations for issuing p-notes for underlying derivatives. However, this requirement is waived for p-notes against underlying cash equities. Read More

WHO'S
SBI in Fresh Bank Fraud?... CBI says it has registered 42 new cases of bank fraud amounting to about Rs 7,200 crore after conducting searches in 187 places across the country. The primarily loan fraud cases were detected at 15 banks, including the country's largest state-run lender SBI. Of the 42 cases, four involved a fraud amount of more than Rs 1,000 crore each, the agency said. Read More
Auto Rally Fizzling Out… The rally in auto stocks may hit a speed bump after the recent rally in the last one month in anticipation of strong festival season sales. Analysts say they will watch out for November and December sales to discern the sustainability of demand. The BSE Auto index has gained 13% in last one month. However, the rally is losing steam, with the index ending in the red in four out of the last five sessions. Read More

Services Growth Shrinking... India's services sector activity declined for the second straight month in October, the first back-to-back reduction since the second quarter of 2017-18, dragging business confidence to its lowest level in almost three years, a private survey showed on Tuesday. Although the IHS Markit Services PMI rose to 49.2 last month from 48.7 in September, it remained below the 50-mark threshold that separates contraction from expansion. Read More

Meanwhile...
China is seeking the roll back of US tariffs on as much as $360 billion of Chinese imports before President Xi Jinping agrees to go to the US to sign a partial trade deal with President Donald Trump. Negotiators asked the Trump administration to eliminate tariffs on about $110 billion in goods that were imposed in September and lower the 25% tariff rate on about $250 billion that began last year. Read More
KEY INDICES
16,682  -182.7
13,522  -108.62
30,220  -113.25
15,533  -57.85
Price Movers|Volume Movers|Near 52 Week High|Near 52 Week Low

Stocks to Watch >>>

    Edelweiss has emerged as the highest bidder for three road assets put on the block by IL&FS, the bankrupt infrastructure lender told bankers on Tuesday.

    BlackRock, Nomura, GIC of Singapore and others have lapped up shares of Bajaj Finance in the Rs 8,500 crore private placement to qualified institutional investors.

    Troubled-CG Power & Industrial Solutions plans to raise about Rs 800 crore through an equity issue to tackle the liquidity crisis that it is facing

    Suzuki Motor Corporation has revised the FY20 sales forecast for Maruti Suzuki, saying they will plunge 20% on dismal first half performance against an earlier projection a 4% growth.

    DHFL has urged its two top lenders, SBI and Union Bank, to help lift a moratorium on repayments so that the stressed mortgage lender could begin repaying its depositors.

    Titan reported an 1.8% increase in net profit at Rs 320 crore for September quarter, when business was impacted by high gold prices and subdued consumer sentiment.

UnQuote: P/E PUZZLE
It is tough to make money in stocks where trailing PEs are up 70-80 times
Sunil Singhania, Abakkus Asset Manager

The DAY PLANNER

    Q2 earnings: Tata Steel | Canara Bank | Cipla | Corp Bank | Godrej Consumer | Indiabulls Housing | SCI | Lupin | Bajaj Electricals | Bosch
    BoJ Monetary policy meeting minutes
    US API crude oil stock change
    US Oct total vehicle sales

OUTLOOK

AUTO
    Sanjiv Bhasin of IIFL Securities says the best thing is that the worst performing sector of the last two months has seen the best gains. Maruti from Rs 5,500 has touched Rs 7,700 and Eicher has risen from Rs 16,000 to Rs 23,000. "Autos will see a huge uptick in 2020 and we are not investing with a three-month view," he said.

MIDCAPS
    Deven R Choksey of KR Choksey Investment Managers, says investors should pick up smaller and midsized companies with quality fundamentals, but that should not be at the cost of quality companies. "Your portfolio should have a balance of quality companies as well as some of the emerging companies which are showing signs of growth," he said

RUPEE-DOLLAR
    IFA Global says the central bank probably wants the rupee to not rise sharply, thus refraining market participants from placing large bets in going long on rupee. The 71.00 - 71.05 range is the crucial resistance zone while the 70.20-70.40 range will act as a strong support. The pair is likely to trade with bearish bias unless it breaks and closes above 71.20 level

STOCKS RECOMMENDATIONS
Hindalco Industries Ltd. 5 Nov, 2019 | 09:50 AM IST buyBuy
Larsen & Toubro Ltd. 5 Nov, 2019 | 09:52 AM IST buyBuy


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