Monday, 2 September 2019

Titan trims growth guidance | Airtel gets one up on Jio | Private lenders to gain from bank mergers

MORNING NEWSLETTER

3 Sep, 2019 | 08:36 AM IST


Good Morning!

The government's mega bank merger plan aimed at creating bigger and healthier lenders may look ambitious, but sectoral analysts say the move is a huge negative for public sector lenders. As these already weak banks get busy with the integration process and navigate challenges related to staff, branch and process overlaps for a prolonged period, private lenders will take the advantage to further consolidate their market share

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STREET PULSE: Where we stand
Global stocks were hit by US-China trade frictions on Tuesday while the British pound flirted with 2 1/2-year lows as Prime Minister Boris Johnson indicated he could call an election to stymie lawmakers' efforts to avert a no-deal Brexit. Read More

    SGX Nifty traded flat at 7 am (IST), signalling indecisiveness ahead on Dalal Street. MSCI index for Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan shed 0.2 percent in early trade while Japan's Nikkei was flat.
    US markets were closed overnight for Labour Day holiday

Oil prices weakened after new import tariffs imposed by the US and China came into force, raising concerns about a further hit to global economic growth and demand for crude. Brent crude futures settled fell 59 cents to $58.66 a barrel, while WTI crude slipped 33 cents to $54.77. Read More
LOOK WHO'S

Bank on the Best... India announced an extensive consolidation of state-owned banks that will see 10 of them being merged to form four bigger lenders to strengthen a sector struggling with a bad-loan cleanup and aimed at creating lenders of global scale that can support the economy's surge to $5 trillion by 2024. But equity analysts predict the move will slow loan growth, and many brokers advise buying shares of private banks who stand to benefit from the uncertainty. Read More

Going for Moon… India's second lunar mission moved a step closer to the moon after landing module 'Vikram' — along with rover 'Pragyan' — was successfully separated from the orbiter on Monday, five days ahead of the planned touchdown on the unexplored lunar south pole. The milestone event came 42 days after the mission was launched onboard India's most powerful rocket GSLV-MkIII-M1. Isro said all systems of Chandrayaan-2's orbiter and lander were healthy. Read More

WHO'S
Grim Outlook… Economists have cut their forecasts for India's economic growth and predicted deeper interest-rate cuts after data showed a sharper-than-expected slump in output. Goldman Sachs and Citigroup lowered their growth projections to 6% for the fiscal year through March 2020, while Oxford Economics said there's a risk the expansion could be weaker than that. Data late Friday showed GDP rose 5% in June quarter from a year ago, the slowest pace in six years and lower than all the forecasts in a Bloomberg survey of economists. The weakness was broad-based, with consumption and export growth slowing while investment remained subdued. Read More

Motown Pain... Auto industry body SIAM has sought immediate steps from the government, including a reduction in GST rates and initiation of scrappage policy, as sales continued to plummet with passenger vehicle makers witnessing a decline of 30 per cent offtake in August. SIAM said even commercial vehicles and two-wheeler sales are significantly negative, indicating that various measures initiated by the Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman last month have had no effect. Read More

Meanwhile...
Manufacturing activity in India slumped to a 15-month low in August as sales slowed, forcing factories to cut back on production, a private survey showed, while separately released government numbers showed muted output rise in the infrastructure sector in July. The twin sets of data indicated the lack of any indications of recovery, both in demand or investment, in the economy in the second quarter from the six-year low it touched in the June quarter. Read More
KEY INDICES
15,652 + 147.25
12,535 + 104.2
27,428 + 122.65
16,010 + 125.85
Price Movers|Volume Movers|Near 52 Week High|Near 52 Week Low

Stocks to watch >>>

    Titan has trimmed its FY20 guidance for revenue growth in its watches division to account for the slowdown in demand, even as the company expects recovery to start in six months.

    Tata Steel Europe has signed a deal with Japanese steel giant JFE Shoji Trade Corporation for selling its subsidiary Cogent Power

    Maruti Suzuki will make all the small cars in its portfolio available in CNG variants to reduce dependence on imported oil and cut down on vehicular pollution.

    Bharti Airtel has launched a digital entertainment services platform christened Airtel Xstream, three days before Reliance Jio Infocomm's home broadband was set to go live

UnQuote: When Will FIIs Return?
I see money coming into India left, right and centre
Prem Watsa, Fairfax Financial Holdings

Day Planner:

    US Aug manufacturing PM
    US July construction spending

OUTLOOK

AUTO STOCKS
    Prasanth Prabhakaran of Yes Securities says auto dealers are talking of an extended bad run continuing for next six months. Many have at least 30 days inventory on their books.

DOLLAR
    Paul McNamara, a London-based fund manager at GAM UK, says at the moment, when people want certainty, when they want a safe haven, they tend to go to the dollar, leading to its ascent

CRUDE OIL
    Commerzbank analyst Eugen Weinberg says given the considerable production discipline shown by Opec, even a moderate demand growth is likely to result in tightening of supply, which will support rising prices.

STOCKS RECOMMENDATIONS
GAIL (India) Ltd. 3 Sep, 2019 | 08:20 AM IST buyBuy
Cummins India Ltd. 3 Sep, 2019 | 08:16 AM IST SellHold


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