Sunday 22 September 2019

D-Street sees major gains ahead for Nifty | FM pledges no expenditure cut | New twist in DHFL recast

MORNING NEWSLETTER

23 Sep, 2019 | 08:29 AM IST


Good Morning!

The benefit of the Modi Government's $20 billion tax-cut for India Inc, touted as biggest and boldest response from the Centre since 1991, is dropping straight to the bottom lines. Counting the benefits for the full financial year, Nifty earnings growth estimate straightaway rises to 12 per cent from an earlier projection of 5 per cent, while at the NSE500 level, it will have an approximately 7 per cent positive impact of annual standalone EPS. That explains is why 12-month Nifty targets have suddenly topped 13,000.

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STREET PULSE: Where we stand
Asian shares started higher on Monday on hopes of an interim Sino-US tariff deal after the two countries described their talks as "productive" and "constructive". Read More

    SGX Nifty traded 70 points higher at 7 am (IST), signalling positive start ahead on Dalal Street. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan up 0.5%. The E-mini futures for U.S. S&P 500 climbed 0.5% while Dow minis were up 0.46%.
    US stocks fell on Friday on news that Chinese officials were cutting short their visit to the US, dampening hope around trade negotiations. The Dow closed 159 points lower, at 26,935, while the S&P500 pulled back 0.5% and the Nasdaq 0.8%

Oil prices rose to their highest amid concerns about oil supply disruptions from Saudi Arabia and elevated tensions in Middle East. Brent crude futures increased to as much as $65.50 a barrel. Read More

LOOK WHO'S

On a High... Sensex and Nifty could advance 6-11% by December as last Friday's corporate tax rate cuts rekindle hopes of a revival in demand and growth as well as earnings boost, said the majority of participants in an ET poll of 23 fund managers and brokerage research heads. Axis Bank, ICICI Bank, HDFC Bank, ACC and Britannia Industries were among the top picks of the participants. About 79% of the poll participants believe that the worst is over for the markets. Read More

No Expenditure Cut!... Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman has ruled out any cutback in expenditure, allaying apprehensions sparked by hefty corporate tax rate cuts, and said the government would instead push spending as the country looks to stave off the economic slowdown that pulled down growth in the first quarter of this financial year to a six-year low. She said she would take stock of the fiscal situation during the revised estimate exercise. Read More

Howdy, Modi… Prime Minister Narendra Modi declared from the 'Howdy, Modi!' stage in Houston, in the presence of US President Donald Trump, that the withdrawal of Article 370 from J&K was the will of Parliament and the world must applaud it. He took potshot at Pakistan, saying the only one country that has failed itself is criticising this decision. "On this, I must thank President Trump for his full support," he said. Addressing the gathering, President Trump said India "never had a better friend in the White House than President Trump". He promised to safeguard the interests of Indian Americans while praising their contribution to the US economy. Read More

WHO'S
DHFL Resolution… The government may take charge of the debt resolution proceedings of the crisis-hit DHFL by putting in place a new framework invoking a provision of the insolvency law, a senior government official told ET. Banks have reached an inter-creditor agreement to restructure the Rs 1 lakh crore debt of the mortgage financier, but have not been able to reach an agreement with bondholders, stalling a resolution. The government is keen to avoid any developments that could have a spillover impact on the financial markets or the economy. Read More

No RBI Heavy-Lifting... The RBI may cut the benchmark rate by up to a quarter percentage point in October against an anticipated 25-40 basis points after the Finance Minister announced a host of fiscal measures on Friday, showed an ET survey of market participants. "This fiscal stimulus would help reduce the pressure on monetary policy to do the heavy-lifting to counter the slowdown through lower interest rates," said Gaurav Kapur, chief economist at IndusInd Bank. Read More

Meanwhile...RBI's decision on the proposed merger of Lakshmi Vilas Bank with Indiabulls Housing Finance could largely be guided by the precarious state of the bank's finances, its urgent need for capital and the desire to reassure nervous financial markets about systemic stability of banks and other financial firms. LVB's losses have almost doubled to Rs 237 crore in June quarter from Rs 124 crore reported for a year ago, as lower income and higher provisions for bad loans ate into the capital. At the end of June 2019, the bank's gross NPAs were at 17.30% rivalled only by its public sector peers and up 10.73% year-on-year. Read More

KEY INDICES
16,333 + 904.25
13,204 + 500.98
28,982 + 2223.9
15,491  -31.35
Price Movers|Volume Movers|Near 52 Week High|Near 52 Week Low

Meanwhile watch them >>>

    Negotiations between the promoters of Altico Capital, lenders and investors are locked in a stalemate as a demand to raise promoters' equity into the NBFC is gaining ground to meet immediate debt obligations

    Reliance Capital's debt worth around Rs 17,000 crore has been downgraded to 'default' by credit rating agency Care Ratings due to a delay in servicing of the coupon on several NCDs.

    Petronet LNG and US liquefied natural gas developer Tellurian signed an initial agreement under which the Indian company and its affiliates will negotiate to buy up to 5 million tonnes per annum of LNG

    The UK-based private equity firm Actis and Tata Realty and Infrastructure, a subsidiary of Tata Sons, are looking to raise $1 billion for their commercial properties under their platform.

    Ahmedabad-based textile major Arvind is planning to raise long-term credit worth Rs 490 crore to replace short-term loans as part of plans to improve its financial profile

    SBI is expected to launch a co-lending business model soon with 4-5 medium to large-sized NBFCs, an SBI said.

UnQuote: INDIA SLOWDOWN
It is okay to bite the bullet on fiscal deficit for a mega reform like this
Arvind Panagariya, Former VC, NITI Aayog

Day Planner:

    ECB Lane Speech
    Fed Bullard Speech
    US Markit composite PMI flash for Sept

OUTLOOK
TAX CUT
    Vikas Khemani, Founder, Carnelian Capital Advisors, says the Finance Minister has done four things: a) Released liquidity in the system through various measures, b) Brought the credit cycle back, c) Encouraged the investment cycle and d) Released a lot of equity in the system

GOLD
    The global outlook still looks quite unfavourable and central banks around the globe will continue to ease monetary policy, which will be beneficial for gold, says FXTM analyst Lukman Otunuga.

RUPEE
    Forex advisory firm IFA Global says with crude oil cooling off, the rupee may get some reprieve, but with tension in West Asia remaining elevated and outflows continuing from Indian equities, the rupee may remain under pressure.

STOCKS RECOMMENDATIONS
HCL Technologies Ltd. 23 Sep, 2019 | 08:29 AM IST buyBuy
Tata Power Company Ltd. 23 Sep, 2019 | 08:20 AM IST buyBuy


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