Wednesday, 11 September 2019

OFS bonanza in RNAM, SBI Life | Goodwill gestures signal US-China thaw | iPhone rally lifts Apple back to $1 trillion

MORNING NEWSLETTER

12 Sep, 2019 | 08:28 AM IST


Good Morning!

Ending of a selloff should by no means be read as a signal to buy stocks. India's midcap and smallcap stocks have tanked 50-70% in 2019 amid souring sentiment over defaults, corporate governance issues, liquidity squeeze and what not! In last five sessions, they are rebounding: Midcap index is up 3% and the Smallcap index 4%. There lies the catch: what looks like a recovery may turn out to be pre-mature optimism, because fundamentally key drivers needed to boost these stocks -- economic and corporate earnings recovery -- are both missing. Beware!

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STREET PULSE: Where we stand
Asian stocks rose on hopes for a thaw in US-China trade frictions and expectations that the ECB will kick off another wave of monetary easing by global central banks. Read More

    SGX Nifty traded 41 points higher at 7 am (IST), signalling buoyancy ahead on Dalal Street. MSCI index for Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan rose 0.2%; Japan's Nikkei gained 1% and Australian shares 0.41%.
    Overnight, Dow rose 227 points, S&P500 21.54 points and the Nasdaq 85.52 points

Oil prices rose in Asia, rebounding from a tumble on Wednesday, on hopes OPEC members will cut output to support prices. Read More
LOOK WHO'S

Bonanza!... Investors can buy shares of Reliance Nippon Life Asset Management and SBI Life Insurance in the share sales by their promoters on Thursday and Friday as both stocks are trading at huge discount to their peers, say analysts. Reliance Nippon shares have rallied 40% in last two months but still trades at 35 times its trailing 12-month earnings as against HDFC AMC's Price to Earnings ratio of 56 times. SBI is selling 4.5% stake in SBI Life Insurance at a floor price of Rs 770 when analysts estimate the fair value of the stock at Rs 900-910 per share. Read More

    iPhone rally brings Apple back above a $1 trillion value >>>
    Adani bids for Rs 45,000 crore Navy sub project >>>
    Airtel goes on up with Xstream Fibre >>>

The Thaw… China on Wednesday said it would spare a number of US products from punitive tariffs in what is seen as an olive branch by Beijing in the protracted trade war ahead of high-level talks next month. However, the goods do not include big-ticket agricultural items that could be crucial to the ultimate success of any agreement between the two sides. US President Donald Trump agreed to delay an additional increase in tariffs on Chinese goods by two weeks at the request of China's Vice Premier Liu He "as a gesture of good will." Read More

Back to Basics… Sharp cuts in bank deposit rates in the last one year have prompted investors to sift a portion of their money to traditional products like government bonds and post office time deposits, which offer higher rates. Fixed deposit rates of top banks have fallen by an average 0.5-1% to 6.5-7.1%. In comparison, government bonds and post office deposits of longer durations are fetching about 7.5-7.75%. Read More

WHO'S
Big Selloff… Azim Premji and the promoter group of Wipro have sold stocks worth over $1 billion or Rs 7,300 crore in the buyback programme announced by India's fourth-largest IT services company. The bulk of the funds will likely be used to boost the philanthropic initiatives of India's most generous billionaire whose eponymous foundation is one of the five largest private endowments in the world and the biggest in Asia. Read More

Downgraded!... Credit Suisse has downgraded India to 'market weight' in its country model portfolio with the country falling to number 8th spot from 6th spot. The brokerage said global monetary easing will help India more than most Asian markets but the depth of the economic downturn is beginning to translate into EPS cuts just as consensus forecasts for previously hard-hit north Asian markets are stabilising. Read More

Meanwhile...
The government is considering a fund that will provide guarantees for those who won't otherwise be eligible for a housing loan, allowing them to borrow funds to acquire a home, said a senior finance ministry official. It's being envisaged as part of a package being prepared by the government to help the housing sector, which is burdened by heavy debt, stalled projects and unsold homes. Read More
KEY INDICES
15,940 + 140.9
12,892 + 181.97
27,776 + 271.55
15,702  -217.6
Price Movers|Volume Movers|Near 52 Week High|Near 52 Week Low

Stocks to watch >>>

    Cash-strapped CG Power has failed to raise working capital loans as banks are reluctant to lend to it amid a probe into alleged wrongdoings that led to the sacking of its chairman.

    JSW Steel will move a higher court to seek immunity against claims arising from alleged money laundering frauds at Bhushan Power & Steel, which it wants to buy for Rs 19,700 crore.

    Dalmia Cement has put in a bid for Emami Group's cement business. Though it held talks with funds such as CPPIB and Piramal-Bain for a joint bid, it has now decided to go solo

    Strides Pharma Science on Wednesday said it has acquired 70% stake in Switzerland-based Fairmed Healthcare AG for CHF 2.2 million (over Rs 15.50 crore).

    Tata Motors reported a 32% decline in global vehicle sale for August at 72,464 units. This includes sales for commercial and passenger vehicles under Tata, JLR and Tata Daewoo brands

    Vodafone Idea is looking to selectively bundle fast home broadband services with its top-end 4G postpaid and prepaid mobility plans in priority markets to scale up its unit YOU Broadband

UnQuote: RISK RALLY?
A risk rally is starting now, go for midcaps and smallcaps
Mark Matthews, Julius Baer

Day Planner:

    India Industrial Production data for July
    India Inflation Rate for August
    ECB Interest Rate Decision
    US August inflation rate

OUTLOOK

RUPEE
    Domestic brokerage ICICIdirect says it expects the USD-INR pair to find support at lower levels. "Use downsides in the pair to initiate long positions," it added. The dollar-rupee September contract on the NSE was at 71.84 in the previous session. Open interest declined 3.49%.

REAL ESTATE
    Dipan Mehta of Elixir Equities says real estate stocks, especially companies are focussed on the economy segment, would do well from here on. Companies like Kolte Patil, Prestige Estates and to an extent even Godrej Properties could certainly do well

CRUDE OIL
    Opec's monthly report suggests there will be a 2020 supply surplus of 340,000 bpd if the organisation of oil producers keeps pumping at August's rate and other things remain equal, it will be more than the surplus forecast in last month's report.

STOCKS RECOMMENDATIONS
Ashok Leyland Ltd. 12 Sep, 2019 | 08:19 AM IST SellSell
Jindal Steel & Power Ltd. 12 Sep, 2019 | 08:14 AM IST buyBuy


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