Thursday, 5 September 2019

Indiabulls Housing-LVB merger in limbo | US bond yields rebound | Sun Pharma sent for forensic audit

MORNING NEWSLETTER

6 Sep, 2019 | 08:18 AM IST


Good Morning!

Which basket of stocks is more problematic? On Thursday, one Dalal Street veteran reeled out a set of numbers that showed when you exclude auto and NBFC sectors, midcap PAT growth for 2018-2019 actually stood at 49 per cent while largecap PAT grew just 14.5 per cent. And if you take the banks away, largecap PAT growth would be 7 per cent and midcap PAT growth 20 per cent. That trend held true even in June quarter, when midcap companies delivered better value than largecaps in terms of PAT growth. Are then midcaps victims of misperceptions?

71002706

STREET PULSE: Where we stand
Asian stocks tracked global peers and rose while safe havens such as government bonds and the yen were sold amid signs of easing US-China trade tensions and as firm US economic data bolstered risk appetites. Read More

    SGX Nifty traded 39 points higher at 7 am (IST), signalling buoyancy ahead on Dalal Street. MSCI index for Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan added 0.2 per cent, putting it on track for a 2 per cent weekly gain. Australian stocks gained 0.5 per cent, South Korea's KOSPI 0.3 per cent and Japan's Nikkei 0.6 per cent.
    US stocks rose overnight. The Dow added 1.4 per cent, the S&P500 climbed 1.3 per cent and Nasdaq rose 1.75 per cent.

Oil prices edged higher, with crude benchmarks poised for multi-week gains amid a sharp drawdown in US crude inventories. Brent crude rose 3 cents to $60.98 a barrel, while WTI crude gained 8 cents to $56.38. Read More
LOOK WHO'S

The Rebound... After August's historic drop, it was starting to seem like US Treasury yields could only fall. And then came Thursday, when an enormous surge reminded even well-entrenched bulls that the world's biggest bond market isn't a one-way street. US Treasuries fell in price and yields rebounded from multi-year lows on Thursday as investors moved out of safety assets into equities after US and China agreed to hold high-level talks early in October and US data showed private payrolls increased in August at their fastest pace in four months, while US services industry rebounded to its fastest expansion since February. Read More

    RIL stock can double in a few years>>>
    It's best time to enter the small-cap space >>>

Historical Advantage… The start of the September derivatives series has been rocky for the Indian stock market after the index logged the third consecutive series of decline last week amid continuing worries of economic slowdown. However, the indices may still eke out some gains in the September series if historical data is anything to go by. It shows since the inception of derivatives in the Indian market, Nifty has had just once instance of four consecutive negative expiries in October 2002. Read More

WHO'S
Loan Woes… Home, auto and personal loan rates may not fall sharply as expected after RBI's directive on Wednesday, as bad debt-laden banks strive to protect profitability with higher spreads over benchmark rates. Bankers and analysts said rates may either rise in the short term or stay where they are, as banks' cost of funds is linked to deposit rates, which are sticky and not benchmarked and they may begin to charge a higher risk premium to cover the cost of deposits. Read More

A Merger in Limbo... The deal to merge Indiabulls Housing Finance and Lakshmi Vilas Bank hangs in balance with the proposed transaction turning out to be a waiting game for various parties. RBI, which received the application four months ago, is yet to take a decision. While one of the financial services regulators has given its NOC, Enforcement Directorate and I-T department haven't shared their findings. Read More

Meanwhile...
Sebi has ordered a forensic audit of Sun Pharmaceutical Industries' financial statements for the financial years ending March 31, 2016, March 31, 2017 and March 31, 2018 as part of the ongoing investigation on a whistleblower complaint in October last year. Read More
KEY INDICES
15,497 + 46.5
12,496 + 89.93
26,920  -204.15
16,031  -1.55
Price Movers|Volume Movers|Near 52 Week High|Near 52 Week Low

Stocks to watch >>>

    RIL is looking to buy fashion and child-focused retailers abroad and partner with global sports and beauty brands as part of its expansion into consumer markets,

    Two years after its listing, Aditya Birla Capital raised Rs 1,000 crore from PE fund Advent International as part of a larger Rs 2,100 crore capitalisation exercise

    Tech Mahindra has won a more than $1 billion contract from its largest customer AT&T, as the US telecom provider looks to modernise its IT network

    Bajaj Finance has engaged investment banks Nomura and JM Financial to raise around $1.2 billion through share sale to boost capital and bring down leverage ratio

    The NCLT has approved JSW Steel's Rs 19,700 crore bid for debt-ridden steelmaker Bhushan Power and Steel

    Cognizant CEO Brian Humphries said that the company could see a slew of job cuts as early as end-October to ensure that its ongoing restructuring does not drag out over time

UnQuote: Bulls or Bears
Don't call it a bear market, there has simply been a slowdown
Prashant Jain, HDFC AMC

Day Planner:

    US-India 2+2 Dialogue
    India August forex reserves
    Euro Area Q2 GDP Growth Estimate
    US Aug unemployment rate
    Fed Chair Powell Speech

OUTLOOK

CEMENT STOCKS
    Sunil Subramaniam of Sundaram Mutual says sectors like cement, building materials will lead market rally in October, November, December and there will be very sharp bounceback as government starts spending on capex, which will directly transfer into capital goods orders for small and midcap firms.

SILVER
    Sakina Mandsaurwala of Narnolia Financial Advisors says silver prices will act positively as the top three silver-producing countries -- Peru (-10%), Chile (-7.2%) and Mexico (-4%) -- have reported a drop in mine production in the first half of 2019.

DOLLAR
    Currency markets are illustrating a shift... the US dollar is playing a passive role as markets wait for the next trade tweets to drop, says Michael McCarthy, chief market strategist at brokerage CMC Markets in Sydney.


STOCKS RECOMMENDATIONS
Hindustan Unilever Ltd. 6 Sep, 2019 | 08:04 AM IST SellSell
GAIL (India) Ltd. 6 Sep, 2019 | 08:00 AM IST buyBuy


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