Tuesday, 3 September 2019

India Inc faces further downgrades | NBFCs' overseas borrowing slows | Long queue for IL&FS assets

MORNING NEWSLETTER

4 Sep, 2019 | 08:33 AM IST


Good Morning!

Former Fed Chair Alan Greenspan has the credit for popularising the phrase 'quasi-recession'. Some economists think India is now a fit case for its use, after economic growth fell below the long-term trend for two consecutive quarters. But others point to a different pattern: Bulk consumption items are slowing down, but premium products are doing well. People are slow in taking loans, but have been aggressive in investing in mutual fund SIPs and insurance products. It's a paradigm shift somewhere!

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STREET PULSE: Where we stand
Asian stocks dipped in early trade after poor US economic data stoked global recession fears and further soured investor sentiment already hurt by heightened trade war concerns. Read More

    SGX Nifty traded 42 points higher at 7 am (IST), signalling buoyancy ahead on Dalal Street. MSCI index for Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan traded a shade lower after losing 0.85% the previous day. Australian stocks lost 0.8% and Japan's Nikkei fell 0.3%
    US stocks closed sharply lower. Dow fell 1.1%, or 285 points, the S&P500 shed 0.7% and the Nasdaq 1.1%.

US crude oil futures dipped 0.04 per cent to $53.92 per barrel, adding to the previous day's losses. The contracts had shed more than 2 per cent on Tuesday after the weak US ISM data raised concerns about a weakening global economy. Read More
LOOK WHO'S

New Lease of Life... In a significant development, the NCLAT has set aside a lower court order to liquidate debt-ridden Sterling Biotech, allowing its promoters to take back control of the company once they make full payment to the lenders. The ruling may set a precedent that will have ramifications for companies willing to clear dues after they are admitted for insolvency resolution. Read More

    Recycling of old gold has increased 15-20% in Aug >>>
    SBI says Oct-Nov crucial for economic turnaround >>>

Long Queue for IL&FS Assets… Global infrastructure investment fund I Squared Capital, the National Investment and Infrastructure Fund, Singapore-based infrastructure investment platform Cube Highways and Edelweiss have shown interest in buying road assets worth about Rs 20,000 crore from the IL&FS group. Fourteen entities have submitted bids for 10 road assets with debt of Rs 17,700 crore, which accounts for nearly one-fifth of total IL&FS group debt. Read More

WHO'S
Further Downgrades?… India Inc faces further earnings downgrades. An analysis of estimates for both nominal GDP growth and revenue expansion shows that Dalal Street is factoring in significantly higher revenue growth than nominal GDP. That leaves room for more downgrades. Nominal GDP growth dropped to 7.9% in the June quarter, the lowest in 16 years, making analysts more circumspect. For 2019, consensus earnings growth for the Nifty and BSE500 index are 19% and 12%, respectively. Read More

    Trade deal to be tougher post election: Trump >>>
    British lawmakers defeat PM's no-deal Brexit plan >>>

NBFC Fund Squeeze... India's shadow banks are getting increasingly squeezed by a crisis of confidence at home, forcing them to cough up more for funds overseas. And that's just for the lucky ones. NBFCs have struggled to raise funds abroad this year, as defaults in India's credit market spread after a shock failure by major shadow lender IL&FS Group last year. They've signed $1.5 billion of foreign-currency loans so far in 2019, down from $2 billion in the same period last year. Read More

Meanwhile...
As bond traders around the world rejoice in this year's dizzying debt rally, the mood is more tempered in India. Yields have barely budged despite the government's recent measures to lift Asia's third-biggest economy. The reason: traders are worried the weak GDP print may force the government to deliver a big revival package, which it has so far resisted. Fears of stimulus adding to already record borrowings led to benchmark sovereign notes capping their worst performance in 16 months in August. Read More
KEY INDICES
15,375  -277.0
12,370  -164.88
26,824  -603.7
15,985  -25.5
Price Movers|Volume Movers|Near 52 Week High|Near 52 Week Low

Stocks to watch >>>

    In a partial relief to real estate developer HDIL, NCLT has stayed the constitution of a committee of its creditors.

    The Union cabinet has approved a Rs 9,300 crore capital infusion in IDBI Bank, with LIC providing Rs 4,743 crore

    A court has rejected a request from Anheuser-Busch InBev to stay a three-year sales ban imposed by New Delhi city authorities

    US PE group Advent is in advanced talks to invest Rs 1,200-1,300 crore in Aditya Birla Capital for a 6-7% stake

    Indiabulls Housing Finance has put a prime 12,100 sq ft bungalow in south Mumbai's Cuffe Parade on the block for Rs 121 crore

UnQuote: BANK MERGER
If size alone mattered, then dinosaurs would not have been extinct.
Nilesh Shah, Kotak AMC

Day Planner:

    India Markit Services PMI for Aug
    BoJ Gov Kuroda Speech
    China Aug services PMI
    US July export-import data

OUTLOOK

WHERE TO INVEST
    Atul Suri of Marathon Trends - PMS says insurance stocks are his best bet. "Plus, AMC companies selectively have become a very good place as is consumption, which are through a down-cycle and are expensive, but they are the real wealth creators. In financials & NBFCs, stay with high quality names."

CRUDE OIL
    Oil will struggle to make substantial headway topside this week with no progress on trade talks or meetings even, soft data from Asia and a possible cracking of Opec's resolve to control production, says Jeffrey Halley, senior market analyst at OANDA

RUPEE
    Weak monthly auto sales data, core infra data, PMI data and GDP print have weighed on the rupee. Plus, the dollar index has climbed to the highest in more than two years as uncertainty over the planning of US-China trade talks' underpinned demand for the US currency, says VK Sharma of HDFC Securities.

STOCKS RECOMMENDATIONS
Cadila Healthcare Ltd. 4 Sep, 2019 | 08:21 AM IST buyBuy
Ambuja Cements Ltd. 4 Sep, 2019 | 08:19 AM IST SellSell


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