Monday, 12 August 2019

Tectonic shift in biz to give RIL stock a big lift. Plus, what else to watch in today's market

MORNING NEWSLETTER

13 Aug, 2019 | 08:31 AM IST


Good Morning!

It's a skewed market! While Nifty trades above its 10-year average P/E ratio, over half of the index stocks trade at a discount to their 10-year average price-to-earnings ratios, while 32 trade at a discount to their 10-year average price-to-book (P/B) ratios — a valuation gauge based on assets of a business. This has given rise to a situation where majority of the Nifty stocks trade at lower valuations while a few continue to command premiums.

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STREET PULSE: Where we stand
    SGX Nifty traded some 25 points higher at 7 am (IST), signalling a possible positive start for Dalal Street. Asian shares fell as fears of a drawn out Sino-US trade war & Hong Kong protests haunted investors. MSCI's index for Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan fell 0.26% while Nikkei tumbled 1.28%. Wall Street fell overnight, as bond yields resumed their August downturn, raising concerns about the state of the economy. Dow fell 1.5%, while S&P500 dropped 1.24% and the Nasdaq 1.2%. Read More

    Crude oil prices edged lower, offsetting narrow gains in the previous session. Brent crude futures fell by 11 cents to $58.46 a barrel while WTI futures slipped by 12 cents to $54.81. Read More

LOOK WHO'S

Embracing Change... Reliance Industries on Monday signalled a tectonic shift in its decades-long, successful business model of going it alone by proposing to offload stake in its oil-to-chemicals business to Saudi Arabian giant Aramco. It also announced plans to forge partnerships for major businesses with global giants and confirmed reports of strategic interest in telecom and retail businesses. The move comes amid investor concern about the ability of new businesses to generate cash flows to repay debt. Chairman Mukesh Ambani said RIL aims to be a 'zero net-debt company' in 18 months. Analysts said the move should earn the stock a re-rating. Read More

Startup booster... Early-stage technology and startup deal activity is set to intensify further with venture capital firms such as Accel Partners and Lightspeed Venture Partners expected to raise fresh capital and several other funds, both old and new, stepping up investments in the country. Apart from the bigger and better known VCs, a group of funds from the US, Japan, South Korea and China, which were looking at India from the sidelines, are now co-investing with larger funds. Read More

WHO'S
Once a high-flier, now no taker...

Creditors' hopes of resurrecting Jet Airways and salvaging some value from the bankrupt airline were dealt a fresh blow on Monday as two potential investors Vedanta promoter Anil Agarwal's family trust Volcan Investment backed out while Etihad Airways, which already owns a minority stake in Jet, said it was not interested in reinvesting in the airline. Read More

Takeover battle... In a major setback for the Lodhas in their fight for control of the MP Birla Group, a court-appointed committee has decided not to support a resolution seeking Harsh Vardhan Lodha's reappointment as director on the board of the group's three listed entities — Birla Corporation, Vindhya Telelinks and Birla Cable. Lodha, who currently heads the group, has challenged the move in Calcutta High Court. Read More

Meanwhile...
Sales of residential units in top cities remained flat in June quarter even as fresh launches rose. Hyderabad (33%), followed by Kolkata (25%) were among five cities that saw higher sales, while NCR posted the steepest drop in sales at 19%.
KEY INDICES
15,947 + 152.05
12,700 + 125.25
28,432 + 321.45
15,821  -46.6
Price Movers|Volume Movers|Near 52 Week High|Near 52 Week Low

Stocks to watch

    Bharti Airtel on Monday said there was no proposal to sell a stake in the company, responding to a news report that Soft-Bank was in preliminary talks to acquire a stake directly or indirectly.

    Reliance Capital is all set to file a Rs 10,000 crore defamation suit against its erstwhile auditor PwC. Some shareholders of Reliance group companies are also expected to file a class action suit against PwC for eroding value of their investment.

    BP will pay about Rs 7,000 crore for acquiring a 49% stake in Reliance Industries' fuel retailing network, billionaire Mukesh Ambani said on Monday.

    LIC Housing Finance's asset quality touched a near-four-year low in Q1, with gross NPA ratio falling to 1.98 per cent mainly because of pain emanating from non-retail loans.

UnQuote: VALUE BUYING!
Typically in a cycle, the best falls last. You will get some opportunity there at a certain price because you will get to add the leaders which have corrected
Hiren Ved, Alchemy Capital

Day Planner:

    Q1 Earnings: ONGC | Coal India | PFC | Glenmark | Apollo Hospital
    India July Inflation Rate
    Britain June employment rate
    US July core inflation rate
    Opec monthly report

OUTLOOK
RUPEE
    Nomura Securities has revised its forecast for the rupee and expects the currency to weaken to 72.5 to the dollar in 2019, a sharper depreciation than the 69.5 to a dollar it expected earlier.

CRUDE OIL
    Bernstein Energy says if OPEC cuts are merely extended through 2020, prices are going to fall further from current levels. OPEC needs to cut by a further one million barrels a day in 2020 to defend oil prices at $60 a barrel.

RIL
    Sushil Choksey of Indus Equity Advisors says based on the roadmap which Mukesh Ambani charted at AGM, we can see that $100 billion market cap will go up to $140-150 billion in next two quarters.

STOCKS RECOMMENDATIONS
Hero MotoCorp Ltd. 9 Aug, 2019 | 09:02 AM IST buyBuy
Bajaj Finance Ltd. 9 Aug, 2019 | 09:00 AM IST buyBuy


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