The curve continues to confuse. The spread between US three-month bill rates and 10-year yields has been inverted since May, but talks of recession have since become spasmodic. Now the spread between two- and 10-year yields has inverted, but Fed biggies like ex-chair Janet Yellen say markets may be wrong in trusting it as a recession signal. The Fed has a habit of ignoring this signal and usually raised policy rates after an inversion. This time, it has gone the other way and cut rates. Keep your fingers crossed !
STREET PULSE: Where we stand Stock markets are lacklustre this morning and major indices are heading for weekly losses amid conflicting messages on the Sino-US trade war added to worries for the global economy. Talk of aggressive central bank stimulus have driven bond yields to fresh lows.
Read More  | SGX Nifty showed promise, jumping nearly 45 points at 7 am (IST). But MSCI's Asia-Pacific index outside Japan eased 0.17%, while Nikkei fell 0.5%. |
| On Wall Street, E-Mini futures for S&P500 rose 0.24%. Overnight, Dow rose 0.39%, S&P500 0.25%, but Nasdaq dropped 0.09%. |
Crude oil prices rose this morning, buoyed by a rise in US retail sales. Brent crude rose 31 cents to $58.54 a barrel while WTI crude gained 43 cents to $54.90.
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Stimulus Coming... Prime Minister Narendra Modi took stock of the economy on Thursday at a meeting attended by the Finance Minister and top officials of the ministry. This raised expectations that the government would announce measures to perk up the economy, including sector-specific sops and a possible rollback of the tax surcharge on FPIs.
Read More | India will make most violations under Companies Act civil offences. Only the gravest breaches will remain criminal offences. >>> |
| In a major military reform, PM plans to create a Chief of Defence Staff for coordination among Army, Air Force and Navy. >>> |
A Good Deal... The IT industry may be seeing stray job cuts, but pays and perks of existing staff are set to go up. Major players are doubling down on efforts to prevent young employees skilled in digital technologies – and other high-performers — from jumping ship. They are looking to stem talent outflow through better salary increases, promotions and bonuses for top talent, as well as other value propositions.
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Innerwear sales telling a story, if you may...
The 'men's underwear index', conceived by US Fed ex-Chairman Alan Greenspan, is signalling acute slowdown for Indian economy. Innerwear sales growth fell sharply in June quarter, signalling that consumers struggled to stretch budgets to cover discretionary spending. Page Industries reported 2% sales growth in June quarter, weakest since 2008, while Dollar Industries and VIP showed 4% and 20% declines. Lux sales were flat.
Read More | JLL says 2.2 lakh housing units, worth Rs 1.56 lakh crore, launched in 2011 and before in 7 major cities are still incomplete. Delhi-NCR realtors biggest defaulters. >>> |
| India Inc's growth slowed in June quarter. Quarterly profit of 2,037 firms, excluding banks, fell 12.8% YoY while sales growth in single digits for 2nd straight quarter. >>> |
Downgraded!... Select banks, graphite makers and auto companies have seen biggest target price cuts after June quarter earnings. An analysis of BSE500 constituents showed 227 have seen target price cuts. Yes Bank saw consensus price target come down by 51%.
Read More Meanwhile... As China vowed to counter the latest US tariffs on $300 billion of Chinese goods and asked Washington to meet them halfway if they want a deal, US President Donald Trump said the negotiators were holding 'productive' talks and he did not think Beijing would retaliate.
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