Thursday 22 August 2019

Gloom & doom on D-Street | Big catch for savers | Painful job cuts in Motown

MORNING NEWSLETTER

23 Aug, 2019 | 08:17 AM IST


Good Morning!

Remember Pranab Mukherjee's fiscal giveaways in 2009? Back then, India Inc played 'cry babies' the same way they are doing now, and fear mongering was as shrill... job losses, gloom and doom. The Finance Minister obliged back then; his government regretted it later. Today's set of policy makers and hard-nosed economy managers can see through the game. Their common refrain that the "rules of the game have changed" is a nuanced way of saying a 'FIRM NO' to a 2009 redux.

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STREET PULSE: Where we stand
Asian shares are struggling as weak US manufacturing activity and uncertainty over how much further the Fed would cut rates have added to a general air of caution. Read More

    SGX Nifty traded flat at 7 am (IST), signalling indecisiveness. MSCI index for Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan edged 0.1% lower, Nikkei added 0.2%, Australian stocks eased 0.1%, while South Korean shares shed 0.3%
    US stocks finished mixed, with Dow eking out a 50-point gain. The S&P500 and Nasdaq slipped 0.1% and 0.4%, respectively.

Oil prices clawed back the Thursday's losses, with Brent nudging above $60 a barrel, as tighter supplies offset slowing demand growth. Brent crude rose 10 cents to $60.02 a barrel, while US crude futures were at $55.38, up 3 cents. Read More
LOOK WHO'S

Indo-US Trade Deal... India and US appear close to a breakthrough on some knotty trade issues and may ink a trade deal next month. Delhi is said to be willing to allow dairy imports from the US if Washington guarantees that they do not violate religious beliefs. India may also fix a threshold price for imported smart phones, beyond which it can levy customs duty. Read More

It's a Steal... Investors looking for an alternative to bank deposits after the rate cuts can lock their money into AAA-rated corporate fixed deposits from companies like Bajaj Finance, PNB Housing Finance and Shriram Transport Finance, which are yet to reduce deposit rates. Bajaj Finance remains the best bet yet, offering up to 8.6% for a five-year tenure. But the window for the same may not last beyond this month. Read More

WHO'S
Grim Outlook… Some leading brokerages have slashed Sensex and Nifty targets as earnings disappointment and a slowing economy have clouded the outlook of what was in recent years the most preferred emerging market. With earnings missing estimates, Nomura has cut its March 2020 Nifty target to 11,880 from 12,900, Citi has trimmed Sensex target to 39,000 from 39,600. Others have cut Nifty's EPS estimates. Read More

    Rupee falls to an eight-month low of 71.82 against dollar >>>
    Govt must clear its dues to ease liquidity crisis: Raamdeo >>>

Relief Package!... Minister Ravi Shankar Prasad has sought urgent relief from Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman for the stressed telecom sector, through a cut in levies such as licence fees and GST as part of a four-step agenda. Prasad has also urged that the Rs 36,000 crore in accumulated input tax credit due to these companies be adjusted against future GST levies. Read More

Meanwhile...
With auto sales declining for the ninth straight month in July, more automotive manufacturers have laid off workers and temporarily halted production. Denso Corp's India unit has laid off about 350 temporary workers at its Manesar plant. Bellsonica, which is part-owned by Maruti Suzuki and makes fuel tanks and brake pads, has let go more than 350 workers. Read More
KEY INDICES
15,175  -307.2
12,119  -270.89
27,034  -684.85
15,632 + 53.85
Price Movers|Volume Movers|Near 52 Week High|Near 52 Week Low

Stocks to watch

    Amazon has agreed to indirectly acquire a minority stake in Future Retail by buying a 49% stake in Future Coupons, with the option to buy all or part of the promoters' shareholding after three years. The size of the deal is estimated at Rs 1,500-2,000 crore.

    Glenmark Pharma is engaged in discussions with PE fund PremjiInvest to sell 25-30% stake in Glenmark Life Sciences, its newly-hived off subsidiary of active pharmaceutical ingredient (API) products.

    HPCL plans to spend Rs 74,000 crore over the next five years on capacity expansion across businesses

    PE firms Blackstone Group, Mapletree Investments, Brookfield Asset Management, Apollo Global and a domestic fund managed by InterGlobe Enterprises' real estate arm have emerged final bidders for Reliance ADAG's headquarters in Mumbai

    Lupin has sold a part of its Japanese company Kyowa Pharma for an undisclosed amount to Abu Dhabi's Neopharma group, a move the company said will help it focus on branded drugs in the country.

UnQuote: SIGNS OF REVIVAL
Go for value buys in next 3-4 months, deterioration phase nearly over
Vikas Khemani, Carnelian Capital

Day Planner:

    India forex reserve
    Japan July inflation rate
    Fed Chair speech at Jackson Hole
    US July new home sales

OUTLOOK
BANK STOCKS
    Venkatesh Sanjeevi of Pictet-Indian Equities Fund says private sector banks are in a better position in terms of earnings visibility as they have fewer issues on asset quality and continue to gain market shares

GOLD
    Kotak Securities says robust ETF inflows are supporting gold prices. Gold holdings with SPDR ETF, the world's largest gold ETF, has risen by 6.74 tonnes to 851.91 tonnes, highest since May 2018

OIL
    The oil market is in a situation where supply is deficit, and geopolitical risks have put even more barrels at risk. Yet, prices continue to languish. The supply deficit and weak demand continue to surprise forecasters

STOCKS RECOMMENDATIONS
MOIL Ltd. 23 Aug, 2019 | 08:01 AM IST buyBuy
Housing Development Finance Corporation Ltd. 23 Aug, 2019 | 08:07 AM IST SellSell


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