Thursday 29 August 2019

F&O positions signal grim Sept | DHFL may hive off builder loans | Icra sacks CEO Thakkar

MORNING NEWSLETTER

30 Aug, 2019 | 08:24 AM IST


Good Morning!

RBI's annual report offers its prognosis of the current economic slowdown. It's a soft patch mutating into a cyclical downswing, with several structural problems remaining unaddressed, says the central bank. It then goes on to recommend fiscal readjustments to boost growth without accumulating public debt, and more spending on infrastructure and social sector. But it stops short of suggesting any expansion of the fiscal deficit, meaning the strategy to reverse the downswing would require austerity, including pruning of various subsidies.

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STREET PULSE: Where we stand
Asian shares rose on Friday as China struck a hopeful tone on trade with the United States but continued fears about a global growth slowdown, or even a recession, capped sharp rallies. Read More

    SGX Nifty traded flat at 7 am (IST), signalling indecisiveness. MSCI index for Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan climbed 0.6%. Japan's Nikkei jumped 1%, South Korea's KOSPI 1.5% and Australian shares 0.9%.
    US stocks posted strong gains overnight. Dow advanced 326 points, or 1.3%, while S&P500 rose 36 points, and the Nasdaq 116 points

Oil prices eased after three days of gains on concerns over possible global slowdown. Brent crude slipped 10 cents to $60.98 a barrel, while WTI crude fell 6 cents to $56.65. Read More
LOOK WHO'S

Make in India... India is targeting companies including Apple, Foxconn and Wistron Corp with a charm offensive to encourage them to shift business out of trade war-hit China. Indian officials met on August 14 and listed out "target companies" that also include Taiwan-headquartered Pegatron Corp and have started meeting them, trying to help identify best investment zones. The government is targetting nine sectors, including electronics, auto, pharma and telecom. Read More

    Sebi exonerates 3 former NSE execs in co-location case >>>
    FM hints at new measures to boost consumption, infra >>>
    ADB says RBI's surplus trasnfer to stimulate economy >>>

Festive Bonanza... Expect to be spoilt for choice this festive season. Auto makers are pulling out all stops to make the most of the festive season, amid a crippling slowdown. As buyers dither to enter showrooms, companies are literally landing up at their doorsteps to make a sales pitch. Retail chains are set to increase marketing and promotional expenditure to revive footfalls and consumer spending after the end-of-season sales flopped. Apart from discounts, lifestyle and apparel retailers also plan to showcase widest range of new products. Read More

WHO'S
Grim Outlook… Stock traders rolled over more short positions into the September F&O series on continued concerns over economic slowdown in India and globally and US-China trade tensions, which trumped the measures announced by the government last week to boost liquidity and withdrawal of the controversial surcharge on FPIs registered as trusts. Nifty ended the August series down 2.7% – the third consecutive series where the index has ended in the red – while Bank Nifty fell 6%. Read More

Strict Vigil... About 275 systemically important NBFCs, which would include entities from Shriram Group and Bajaj twins, will face tighter central bank scrutiny, particularly on their interlinkages with commercial banks, as RBI seeks to ensure greater stability in India's credit landscape. Together, these NBFCs account for 85 per cent of the total assets in the sector, and are at the forefront of ensuring last-mile credit to Indians buying television sets, air conditioners, home gadgets, or cars. NBFCs constitute around 12 per cent of total assets in the banking and non-banking space. Read More

Meanwhile...
China has indicated that it wouldn't immediately retaliate against the latest US tariff increase announced by US President Donald Trump last week, emphasising the need to discuss ways to de-escalate the trade war between the world's two largest economies. Read More
KEY INDICES
15,505  -55.75
12,430  -77.96
27,305  -499.1
15,885 + 4.65
Price Movers|Volume Movers|Near 52 Week High|Near 52 Week Low

Stocks to watch >>>

    Lenders to DHFL are considering hiving off a chunk of the mortgage firm's loans outstanding from builders and transferring that to companies created specifically to hold the debt.

    Businessman Gautam Thapar has been ousted as chairman of CG Power and Industrial Solutions by the company's board after a probe revealed financial and governance irregularities.

    The new top management of Coffee Day Enterprises met investors and lenders in Mumbai earlier this week and assured an early resolution of outstanding debt at the coffee retailer,

    The government wants to fully exit Air India as it embarks on another effort aimed at divesting the loss-laden carrier after a plan to sell a 76% stake last year failed.

    Moody's India unit ICRA on Thursday sacked its CEO Naresh Takkar, saying the decision was taken in the best interests of the company and its various stakeholders

UnQuote: THE TAX AXE
Government should scrap capital gains tax, go for higher STT
Samir Arora, Helios Capital

Day Planner:

    India Q2 GDP growth print
    India July Infra Output Print
    India Aug bank deposit growth
    India Aug bank loan, forex reserve
    India July-end Budget deficit

OUTLOOK

MIDCAPS
    Vipul Prasad of Magadh Capital says midcaps may not have become very attractive as a basket. "I am still not looking at them from a top-down perspective. Probably from a bottom-up perspective, some stockc are looking interesting," says he.

SILVER
    Many analysts have attributed the jump in silver prices to a catch-up rally after a sharp rise in gold prices. The white metal has benefitted from firmness in gold price and some stability in industrial metal. But it is likely that silver is in an overbought condition, and is likely to see a brutal pullback, they say.

RUPEE
    Rahul Gupta of Emkay Global says the rupee continues to face resistance around 72.20. As long as it trades below this level, the view will be bearish. However, further developments in US-China trade war will keep Chinese yuan, rupee and other emerging market currencies on edge.

STOCKS RECOMMENDATIONS
Cummins India Ltd. 30 Aug, 2019 | 08:22 AM IST SellHold
State Bank of India 30 Aug, 2019 | 08:18 AM IST buyBuy


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