Sunday 18 August 2019

Your midcap mutual fund SIPs bleeding badly. Plus, what to watch in today's market

MORNING NEWSLETTER

19 Aug, 2019 | 08:29 AM IST


Good Morning!

Earnings estimates for India Inc have become rolling targets, elusive quarter after quarter with no sign of hope on the horizon. This is why a market that was chasing midcaps at crazy valuations till last December are now uneasy about buying them even at a 20% discount to Nifty50. Nifty Midcap100 PE has corrected from 25.6 times in August 2018 to 14.3 times now. Current estimate for FY20 earnings growth of Nifty Midcap100 is 15%.

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STREET PULSE: Where we stand
Stocks rose in Asia this morning as hopes of more stimulus from central banks the world over and steps taken by major economies such as Germany and China soothed investor fears about a sharp global economic slump. Read More

    SGX Nifty showed promise, rising 27 points at 7 am (IST). MSCI index for Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan gained 0.25%. KOSPI rose 0.5% and Nikkei 0.7%.
    Wall Street shares had rebounded on Friday. Dow gained 1.3%, S&P500 1.4% and Nasdaq 1.7%

Crude oil prices rose following a weekend attack on a Saudi oil facility by Yemeni separatists, but an unusually downbeat OPEC demand forecast capped gains. Brent crude rose 45 cents to $59.09 a barrel while WTI crude gained 39 cents to $55.26. Read More

LOOK WHO'S

Picking up the Pieces... Lenders to DHFL have agreed on a three-level resolution plan that includes conversion of debt into equity and issuance of NCDs, steps that will give creditors majority stake in the embattled financier and help resume stalled credit lines. The plan will need green light from RBI as DHFL is a financial institution. Read More

    SBI may extend repo-linked home loan rate for existing customers as well >>>
    Your I-T return form may soon come pre-filled with all the investment data >>>

Rich man's world... HNI investors have nearly doubled purchases of market-linked debentures of NBFCs, helping them raise funds in a cautious environment. Many firms like L&T Finance, Kotak Mahindra Prime, Aditya Birla Finance, IIFL and Tata Capital raised Rs 12,408 crore through such debentures against Rs 6,825 crore raised in the year-ago period. Read More

WHO'S
Your midcap mutual fund SIP is bleeding...

Investors who started SIPs in midcap mutual funds three years ago are staring at losses because of the selloff since January 2018. Value Research data showed three-year SIP returns in 22 out of 25 midcap funds are in the red. In the smallcap space, all 13 funds are in the red. But financial advisers say now is the time to double down on these schemes. Read More

    Sebi has rejected rating agency Icra's consent application in the IL&FS case >>>
    Tata Motors has told suppliers its CV and PV sales could fall by double digits >>>

The Big Bite... US President Donald Trump says Apple CEO Tim Cook is concerned about losing the edge to Samsung because its products, unlike Apple's, won't be subject to tariffs when imported by the US. Trump said Cook offered a very compelling argument about the difficulty. Most Apple's products are due to be hit with 10% tariffs in the next few weeks. Read More

Meanwhile...
Everyone is waiting to see the impact of the economic slowdown on the placement season. India's elite engineering colleges seem to remain insulated. Pre-placement offers are up at IITs this year with IITs in Roorkee, Madras and Guwahati seeing an 8 to 25% jump compared with last year. IIT-Hyderabad has already crossed last year's total PPO tally. Read More
KEY INDICES
15,817 + 51.75
12,585 + 14.42
28,217 + 197.8
15,365  -100.9
Price Movers|Volume Movers|Near 52 Week High|Near 52 Week Low

Stocks to watch

    M&M has retrenched 1,500 temporary workers since April and decided to defer 15-20% of investment plans owing to slow offtake.

    Coffee Day Group promoters plan to restart talks with Coca-Cola to sell a chunk of their stake in Café Coffee Day chain to further cut the group's debt.

    Forest Advisory Committee has agreed to transfer a clearance granted earlier to steelmaker Posco for its Odisha steel project in favour of a greenfield plant that JSW Steel is planning.

UnQuote: STIMULUS, ANYONE?
It's a business cycle downturn. A lot rides on govt response
Raamdeo Agrawal, Motilal Oswal

Day Planner:

    Japan July balance of trade
    Euro Area July inflation print
    Euro Area June Current Account
    Russia July unemployment rate

OUTLOOK
CRUDE OIL
    OPEC sees a 'somewhat bearish' outlook for crude oil in the rest of 2019. In its latest report, OPEC said global supply could grow by 1.97 mb/day this year, significantly outpacing demand growth. It also said the forecast is "subject to downside risks stemming from weaker growth globally."

GOLD
    Anuj Gupta of Angel Brooking says demand for the precious metal may slow down slightly owing to some easing in trade tensions between the US and China, but he sees domestic gold prices at Rs 39,000-40,000 per 10 gm by Diwali

IT
    Siddharth Sedani of Anand Rathi says IT is definitely a favourable space if the rupee is depreciating. The overall perspective in IT is largecap-oriented. TCS would be one stock to look at for a target of Rs 2,500.

STOCKS RECOMMENDATIONS
Wipro Ltd. 16 Aug, 2019 | 09:14 AM IST SellSell
Zee Entertainment Enterprises Ltd. 16 Aug, 2019 | 09:12 AM IST buyBuy


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