Wednesday, 21 August 2019

IMF gives Trump an earful | FPIs chase contra plays on D-St | Airtel to give JioFiber a run for its money

MORNING NEWSLETTER

22 Aug, 2019 | 08:34 AM IST


Good Morning!

Stock markets merely reflect business cycles and human behaviour. The problem with the current downcycle in the Indian market is that many cycles are at play at the same time: business cycle, economic cycle, fiscal cycle, and also investor behaviour cycle. As one analyst puts it: "If you have spent adequate number of years in the market, you know this too will pass; things will turn around." And, as always, fortune will favour the brave!

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STREET PULSE: Where we stand
Asian shares are down as fresh worries about a globAsian shares edged ahead this morning after Wall Street got a boost from strong retail resultsal recession led investors to dump risky assets, with US President Donald Trump showing no sign of backing down in his trade war with China. Read More

    SGX Nifty looked dull, down 15 points at 7 am (IST). MSCI index for Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan inched up 0.1%, Japan's Nikkei rose 0.4% and Australian shares 0.3%
    In overnight trade on Wall Street, the Dow gained 0.93%, while the S&P500 rose 0.82% and the Nasdaq 0.90%.

Oil prices rose on Thursday following a drawdown in US crude inventories, but global growth concerns capped the gains. Brent futures climbed 27 cents to $60.57 a barrel while WTI crude futures rose 35 cents to $56.03. Read More
LOOK WHO'S

Did We Hear 50 bps?... The US Fed debated cutting interest rates more aggressively at its last meeting, although central bankers were united in wanting to avoid the appearance of being on a path to more rate cuts, records from the meeting showed. Minutes for the meeting published on Wednesday showed a couple of participants indicated that they would have preferred a 50 basis points cut. Read More

    Fixing weak growth is not highest priority for RBI, show Aug 5 MPC minutes >>>
    Sebi relaxes several requirements for FPIs to address key concerns >>>
    In a breather for auto firms, govt will not set deadline for transition to EVs >>>
Contra Play... Overseas funds have turned contrarian on Dalal Street, buying into select telecom, NBFC and auto stocks all through June quarter. They raised stakes in Bharti Airtel and Vodafone Idea in telecom; Shriram Transport, Gruh Finance, Equitas Holdings and Muthoot Finance from among NBFCs and Maruti and M&M in the auto space. Read More

WHO'S
Performance pressure showing up in India Inc...

The pressure on the occupants of India Inc's corner offices seems to be growing, if exits of CEOs and MDs at listed companies are any indication. As many as 58 MDs or CEOs who were also on the boards quit in the first seven months of 2019 due to stress across sectors, declining tolerance for underperformance at the highest level and increased scrutiny of performance and ethics. Read More

Tough Talk!... In unusually blunt language, the IMF has warned that US President Donald Trump's policy moves are counterproductive, won't achieve the desired results, and will slow the global economy, IMF chief economist Gita Gopinath said in a blog titled 'Taming the Currency Hype.' Read More

Meanwhile...
CBI arrested senior Congress leader and former Union Finance Minister P Chidambaram from his residence late Wednesday evening in connection with the INX Media corruption and money laundering case hours after the Supreme Court refused to grant immediate hearing on his plea for interim protection from arrest and listed the matter for Friday. Read More
KEY INDICES
15,482  -246.35
12,390  -180.0
27,719  -263.4
15,578  -19.6
Price Movers|Volume Movers|Near 52 Week High|Near 52 Week Low

Stocks to watch

    To take on JioFiber's new offerings, Airtel will bundle a customised Android-based smart set top box to deliver converged digital entertainment and fast broadband services from Sept

    RPG Group's flagship infrastructure company KEC Intl has diversified into civil construction as orders in its core business of power transmission have slowed down

    YES Bank holding firms YES Capital and Morgan Credits have prepaid part of Rs 790 crore loans taken from Franklin Templeton and Reliance Nippon MF after a plunge in bank shares

    ITC plans to increase the salary of CMD Sanjiv Puri by more than 45 per cent and the remuneration of three Eds by 30 per cent in the absence of Esops for them

UnQuote: SIGNS OF TIMES
Roller-coaster ride that you get by investing in smallcaps may not be worth it
Dhirendra Kumar, Value Research

Day Planner:

    Jackson Hole Symposium kicks off
    ECB July policy meet minutes
    US weekly jobless claims
    UK Economist Intelligence Unit

OUTLOOK
BASE METALS
    Weak demand dominates base metals, where there is no imminent supply concern. Nickel and lead are upbeat on supply issues/concerns, while the rest are either stuck in downward trends or bouncing along support levels.

GOLD
    Oanda analyst Craig Erlam says the yellow metal has much more going for it and while more Fed easing will naturally be welcomed by gold bulls, record global negative yields and more easing on the horizon have left it in good shape.

IT
    Rahul Shah of Motilal Oswal says IT has done well since last few quarters and largecap IT names will continue to do well. So, Infosys, TCS and HCL Tech remain top bets. But in the midcap IT space, one has to be very selective.

STOCKS RECOMMENDATIONS
SRF Ltd. 22 Aug, 2019 | 08:30 AM IST buyBuy
Ujjivan Financial Services Ltd. 22 Aug, 2019 | 08:12 AM IST SellSell


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