Wednesday, 7 August 2019

D-Street nearing bottom, but won't see V-shaped recovery! Plus, what else to watch in today's market

MORNING NEWSLETTER

8 Aug, 2019 | 08:14 AM IST


Good Morning!

Inflation, however low, still means price rise. When interest rates fall, they bring down future returns for savers, dent consumer confidence and make them stingy as it becomes harder to live off the accumulating capital. Plus, a slowing economy hits earnings confidence by reducing job prospects and lowering pay hikes. If the slowdown is on demand side, can bringing down real interest rate really help revive consumption?

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STREET PULSE: Where we stand
    SGX Nifty traded flat at 7 am (IST), signalling a possible positive start for Dalal Street. Asian share markets were wobbly in early trade, as investors tried to find footing after a string of heavy losses. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan eased 0.03%, but Nikkei inched up 0.1%. On Wall Street, the Dow fell 22.45 points in overnight trade, while the S&P500 gained 2.21 points and the Nasdaq 29.56 points. Read More

    Crude oil futures more than $1 a barrel amid a weaker dollar, after tanking over 4% on Wednesday amid concerns over a global slowdown. Brent rebounded by $1.29 to $57.52 a barrel, while WTI crude futures jumped $1.30 to $52.39. Read More

LOOK WHO'S

Shopping Season... Morgan Stanley says Indian shares are getting to a bottom as per valuation and sentiment indicators, following a 9% drop from their record highs, but said risks related to the real economy and slowing global growth remain. The risk-reward favours buying equities now, but a V-shaped recovery in stocks depends on actions of policy makers, it said. Read More

Cheaper Loans, ahoy!... Home, car loans set to cost less soon as the RBI governor nudges lenders to pass on rate cuts. Minutes after governor Das reminded high-street banks about their poor record in policy rate transmissions, largest lender SBI reduced lending rate by 15 basis points across tenures. Read More

WHO'S
Bold J&K move triggers neighbour's envy...

Reacting to the change in status for J&K, Pakistan announced a downscaling of diplomatic ties with India, suspension of bilateral trade and vowed to approach the UN Security Council for intervention. Pakistan expelled the Indian high commissioner and said it would also not be sending an envoy to India. Read More

Motown blues... Hit hard by falling sales, automakers have made a pitch for a GST cut to 18% from 28%, sought higher depreciation benefits and called for a favourable scrappage policy to boost demand. They also asked for extra time to offload BS-IV inventory while many questioned the push for an early switch to electric vehicles. Read More

Meanwhile...
While RBI stuck to its stand to not create a bailout package for the NBFC sector, governor Das said the regulator won't allow any big non-bank lender to collapse. It has increased monitoring and eased lending norms & exposure limits to alleviate stress in this space. Read More
KEY INDICES
15,685  -118.55
12,482  -13.55
27,702  -320.05
15,583 + 68.55
Price Movers|Volume Movers|Near 52 Week High|Near 52 Week Low

Stocks to watch

    RIL is partnering with iconic US-based luxury jeweller Tiffany & Co to open a line of stores in the country, adding yet another marquee name to its growing portfolio of brands.

    PE funds Advent International, Blackstone Group, CVC Capital, Carlyle Group and Brookfield have placed initial bids to buy around 30% in Shriram Capital from existing investors Piramal Enterprises and TPG Capital

    IndiGo co-founder Rakesh Gangwal found support from independent board member Anupam Khanna, who wrote a letter to chairman M Damodaran, saying a safeguard is needed to restrain fellow co-founder Rahul Bhatia's IGE Group

    Airtel and Voda Idea have obtained payment terms of up to three years — as against the usual 3-6 months — for renewed and fresh equipment contracts.

    Maruti Suzuki India cut production in July by 25.15 per cent, making it the sixth month in a row when the country's largest car maker reduced output.

UnQuote: The prospects!
Depending on risk appetite, there are opportunities in the Indian stock market
Rajat Rajgarhia, Motilal Oswal Securities

Day Planner:

    Q1 Earnings: Adani Ent | Coffee Day Ent | EIL | Godrej Prop | Max India | NBCC
    China July export/import data
    US August initial jobless claims
    Japan current account data for June

OUTLOOK
DOLLAR
    Tohru Sasaki of JP Morgan Securities expects the dollar to rise to 7.35 yuan and fall to 104-103 yen by the end of the year, which will make the US administration very uncomfortable.

GOLD
    Oanda analyst Edward Moya says the gold rally seems set to roll on as no one is expecting any immediate progress on the trade front and an end to the proactive easing by central banks globally.

CRUDE OIL
    Vandana Hari of Vanda Insights says oil market is not expecting the economic headwinds from trade war to disappear anytime soon, certainly not in 2019.

STOCKS RECOMMENDATIONS
Hero MotoCorp Ltd. 7 Aug, 2019 | 09:09 AM IST buyBuy
Reliance Industries Ltd. 7 Aug, 2019 | 09:08 AM IST SellSell


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