Tuesday, 2 June 2020

Maximum City braces for Cyclone Nisarga I Stocks rally showing no sign of abating | DII clout grows on D-Street, but LIC hold weakens

MORNING NEWSLETTER

3 Jun, 2020 | 08:44 AM IST


Good Morning!

While domestic equities delivered solid gains last year at the indices levels, the fact is, midcaps and smallcaps have been in bear market for the past two-and-a-half years. The market action for the whole of last year was concentrated in a handful of top-rung names and that gave Nifty its record high on January 20, 2020. Nifty entered bear market only this March. So, while Nifty's current rebound may have raised eyebrows, top money managers say the way midcaps and smallcaps have come back in past few weeks tells us that the bear market there may have matured and bottomed out in March. Thus, the bounce in that space is likely to continue, irrespective of where Nifty goes from here.

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MARKET CUES: Where do we stand >>>
    Nifty futures on the Singapore Exchange traded some 39 points higher at 7 am (IST) in signs that Dalal Street might continue its winning streak

    On Tuesday, Nifty formed a bullish candle on the daily chart. The 50-pack has been forming higher highs and lows for some time, suggesting that supports have shifted higher. Analysts said the index needs to take out the 10,000 level soon, else profit booking may set in.

    Elsewhere in Asia, the global rally in stocks showed no signs of abating. South Korea's Kospi climbed 2.5% to lead the gains in Asia, while Japanese shares advanced on yen weakness overnight. The Hang Seng rose 1.2%, Shanghai Composite 0.4% and Australia's S&P/ASX 200 Index 0.8%.

    US stocks added to gains overnight, as hopes for the reopening economy continued to outweigh other risk factors. Dow rose 267 points, or 1.05%; the S&P 500 added 25.09 points, or 0.82%; and the Nasdaq 56.33 points, or 0.59%

    Crude oil price rose to a near three-month high on Wednesday amid optimism that major producers will extend production cuts as the world recovers from the coronavirus pandemic. Brent crude was up 22 cents, or 0.6%, at $39.79 a barrel while WTI crude gained 33 cents, or 0.9%, to $37.14

    The rupee on Tuesday rebounded by 18 paise to close at 75.36 against the US dollar after Prime Minister Narendra Modi asserted that the country will get back its economic growth.

    The dollar fell against most Asian currencies on Wednesday as prospects of more government stimulus and a global economic recovery emboldened investors to step up holdings of riskier assets. The Australian dollar hit a five-month high against the greenback. The euro traded close to the highest since March 16. The greenback also slumped against the British pound and the Swiss franc.

LOOK WHO'S

Look, who's calling the shots... DII holding in Indian equities rose to a record high of 14.8% in March quarter 2020 amid sustained exodus of FII money. DIIs's AUM stood at Rs 20.4 lakh crore in April, down 10% since the beginning of 2020, against FIIs' Rs 24.4 lakh crore down 21.3%. Year to date, DIIs have invested close to Rs 72,000 crore while FIIs have pulled out Rs 39,000 crore. The ratio of FPI-DII ownership dropped to 1.2 this April from the peak of 3.8 in April 2015. Read More

Banks may recast Rs 3 lakh cr loans... Domestic lenders have asked RBI to allow them to restructure loans worth about Rs 3 lakh crore given to hospitality, aviation and commercial property companies without downgrading these assets on their books. These sectors are among the worst-hit by the Covid-19 pandemic and subsequent lockdown. At the end of April, banks had an exposure of Rs 2.3 lakh crore to commercial realty, Rs 45,862 crore to hospitality businesses, and over Rs 30,000 crore to aviation firms. Read More

Call for bad banks grows louder... Financial services sector entities batted for a one-time restructuring of all loans and setting up of a bad bank to help revive the economy and shore up weak balance sheets that they said would be seen a year from now due to the impact of Covid-19. Speaking at the 125th annual session of the CII on Tuesday via videoconference, entities representing NBFCs, health insurers and private equity firms also backed the idea of a single financial regulator, besides enabling healthcare insurance for all. Read More

Rs 1.25 lakh cr investments in queue... The government is considering investment proposals worth $16-17 billion (around Rs 1.25 lakh crore) to boost domestic production of air conditioners and its components, furniture and leather footwear, while looking at options, including duty hikes, to reduce import dependence and push exports. For ACs, the government has been advised to increase customs duty on components to discourage imports from China. For furniture, three-four clusters involving investment of over Rs 75,000 crore have been discussed. Read More

AND WHO'S

Maximum City braces for Cyclone... Mumbai is bracing for its first cyclone in at least a century as Cyclone Nisarga with wind speed of up to 120 km per hour is expected to hit the city and neighbouring districts on Wednesday, which is likely to flood low-lying areas in the region. It will be the second severe storm to hit India's coastline in two weeks. Mumbai is likely to be drenched in 200 mm of rain, which is nearly one-fifth of total rainfall the metropolis gets in June. Read More

LIC losing clout on D-Street... LIC's ownership in listed Indian companies hit an all-time low of 3.88% as on March 31. The value of its investments had declined by over Rs 1.7 lakh crore during the quarter due to the selloff following the Covid-19 outbreak. The value of the LIC's holdings in listed stocks dropped from Rs 6.04 lakh crore as on December 31 to Rs 4.24 lakh crore as on March 31. On a free-float basis, LIC's ownership in Indian companies declined to a record low of 7.85 per cent. Read More

PSU bank privatisation mulled... The government has taken baby-steps toward privatising one or more PSU banks to make them stronger, likely undoing a legacy that started with the nationalisation of banks in 1969, said three people familiar with the plans. A group of top government functionaries has begun discussions on the proposal that originated from state-backed think tank Niti Aayog that's aimed at halting future bailouts by the taxpayer. Possible candidates could include Punjab & Sind Bank, Bank of Maharashtra and Indian Overseas Bank, which are not part of the ongoing consolidation plan. Read More

Meanwhile...
Listed firms not revealing Covid impact... Many listed firms are holding back from disclosing the extent of financial damage that the lockdown has inflicted on them, notwithstanding the recent push from the capital market regulator to divulge the exact impact. Most firms, in their exchange filings, said they were unable to quantify the losses on account of the shutdown of plants and operations; though lawyers feel the reluctance could stem from fear of adverse impact on the share price in advance. Read More
KEY INDICES
13,870 + 185.75
11,428 + 205.65
20,530 + 570.3
14,422 + 115.3
Price Movers|Volume Movers|Near 52 Week High|Near 52 Week Low

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Stocks to Watch >>>

HUL on Tuesday said there was some revival in demand for discretionary categories such as hair care, skin care and colour cosmetics, but it was unsure by when it would return to normal levels.

RIL's Rs 53,124 crore rights issue — the largest such offering by a non-financial firm in the world in the past 10 years — was subscribed more than 1.3 times on the penultimate day of the offer.

ReNew Power is close to inking an agreement to sell its wind farms in Karnataka to UK government-backed Ayana Renewable for Rs 1,500 crore, according to people aware of the matter.

Output at J SW Steel climbed to a touching distance of the pre-Covid levels in May, although exports underpinned a significant proportion of the production and helped offset domestic demand at its earliest stage of revival

IndiGo plunged into loss for March quarter from a profit a year earlier on weak operating performance, as air travel fell most of March before being completely suspended in its last week.

Yes Bank has hired six investment banks in the first step to shore up its capital position through a share sale to raise about Rs 10,000 crore

Uday Kotak sold 56 million shares, or 2.8% stake, for more than Rs 6,900 crore through block deals on Tuesday to reduce his stake in Kotak Mahindra Bank to 26.1 per cent to comply with RBI regulations.

UnQuote: BACK TO BASICS
I don't have to revisit how value investing works
Kenneth Andrade, Old Bridge Capital

The DAY PLANNER

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    Markit Services PMI India (10.30 am)
    UK May Nationwide Housing Prices YoY (11.30 am)
    UK April Mortgage Lending (02.00 pm)
    BoE Consumer Credit April (02.00 pm)

OUTLOOK

Auto in nice setup for price action
    Anshul Saigal of Kotak Mahindra AMC says the outlook for auto is quite attractive, because it has been a three-year downcycle in this space and in that period, inventories have completely dried up. "As we exit this lockdown and people want to go out, personal mobility would be much more preferrable than public transport. Then the auto space will also see tailwinds on demand. It is a nice setup for price action," says he. Read More

World can't cut off from China
    Arnab Das, Global Market Strategist, Invesco, says there is no real alternative to China for the US or many other countries at least in the short term. "Because no other country has the kind of industrial and infrastructure ecosystem that China has to offer, we may see a significant amount of tension, noise and maybe some pressure by companies as well as by governments to gradually diversify supply chain and increase resilience. But I do not really think we are heading towards a direct rupture," says he. Read More

Action shifts to midcaps
    Gautam Shah of Goldilocks Premium Research says the midcap index is down 60% from the highs hit in January 2018 and the smallcap index is down close to 70%. "So that tells you the kind of damage that has already taken place. Therefore, from a longer-term perspective if somebody has a three-year or a five-year horizon, this is clearly a fortune-making opportunity. We have maintained the stance for the last six months," says he. Read More

STOCKS RECOMMENDATIONS
Lupin Ltd. 3 Jun, 2020 | 08:27 AM IST buyAdd
Escorts Ltd. 2 Jun, 2020 | 02:35 PM IST buyBuy


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