Wednesday 17 June 2020

What Sebi changed in takeover rules | Quant funds beat Sensex in choppy market | TaMo to link production to demand

MORNING NEWSLETTER

18 Jun, 2020 | 08:38 AM IST


Good Morning!

Retail sales numbers and myriad surveys are giving some glimpses into how Covid-19 has changed consumer behaviour. Financial pressure and job insecurity are making many consumers to redistribute spending and save in certain areas. A Nielsen study showed spending patterns will particularly affect the areas of fashion, takeaways, travel/holidays and replacement purchases. People may now be planning more road trips instead of air travel. Wardrobe upgrades may take a backseat, and people are expressing a desire to work more from home and cook more at home in future. But there is demand for home furnishing stuff, books, music and sporting goods.

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MARKET CUES: Where do we stand >>>
    Nifty futures on Singapore Exchange traded 72 points lower at 7 am (IST) signalling a weak start ahead on Dalal Street

    On Wednesday, Nifty's fall was the third in last five sessions, when the NSE barometer could not close above the psychological level after claiming it in intraday trade. This does not bode well for the bulls. Analysts said Dark Clouds are looming as the weekly scale indicates that the upside will remain capped

    Stocks in other Asian markets dropped as optimism over policy stimulus gave way to recovery concerns caused by rising infection numbers in some locations. Shares fell in Japan, Australia and Hong Kong as the global equity rally seen earlier this week continued to show signs of fatigue.

    US stocks erased earlier gains on Wednesday, as new coronavirus outbreaks in Beijing and rising cases in the US spooked investors. The Dow fell 170 points, or 0.65%, snapping a three-day winning streak, while the S&P500 lost 11.25 points, or 0.36%, and the Nasdaq 14.66 points, or 0.15%

    The rupee pared early losses and settled 4 paise higher at 76.16 against the US dollar on Wednesday tracking gains in the domestic equity market and a weakening US dollar.

    The dollar held onto gains as growing concerns about a rise in coronavirus cases underpinned safe-haven demand for the US currency. The British pound traded in a narrow range before a BoE meeting. The yen edged up slightly while the sterling inched down and was on course for a third day of losses.

    Oil prices fell more than 1% in early trade on Thursday as a spike in new coronavirus cases in China and the US renewed fears that people would stay home and stall a recovery in fuel demand. WTI crude futures slipped 1.6%, or 60 cents, to $37.36 a barrel while Brent futures fell 1.1%, or 45 cents, to $40.26

    Gold and silver prices in India fell on Wednesday after a big jump in the previous session. On MCX, August gold futures slipped nearly 1% to Rs 47,114 per 10 gm after surging about Rs 600 in the previous session. Silver fell half a per cent to Rs 48,125 a kg, following a Rs 900 gain in the previous session. Globally too, gold prices fell pressured by a stronger dollar and as optimism over a potential COVID-19 drug

LOOK WHO'S

Auto firms seeing demand revival… Wheels are moving again for India's auto industry — the top three car makers are seeing bookings and enquiries rise to 85% of pre-Covid levels. This reflects pent-up demand, says the industry. Maruti Suzuki, Hyundai and Mahindra & Mahindra — which account for 75% of the overall market — have witnessed bookings of roughly 200,000 units over a month-and-half, indicating a swift pick-up. Typically, 85-90% of bookings translate into sales. Even if conversion goes down somewhat, executives said sales will still be healthy. Read More

RIL bonds go one up on PSU ones… Returns on the foreign currency bonds of RIL exceeded those of even sovereign-backed papers in the first half of 2020 after India's biggest company by all financial yardsticks lowered its debt through a record ten rounds of equity sale at Jio Platforms. The dollar-denominated ten-year bonds have rallied 5.1% until June 16 compared with 1.7% at IRFC and 0.9% for NTPC bonds since the beginning of the year. RIL bonds, issued on August 26, 2015, will mature in mid-January 2026. Read More

Hotels doles out discount to draw tourists… Tourism may be impossible now amidst lockdown and fear of Covid-19, but that's not stopping hotels from doling out discounts, freebies and other offers to woo consumers. ITC Hotels has launched the Welcombreak all-in getaway package where customers can book now and pay later with bookings valid for stays till October 31. Starting at Rs 5,299 plus taxes, the offer is valid for ITC hotels. Indian Hotels has launched its 4D travel experience package, Dream, Drive, Discover, Delight, which includes all meals besides spa experiences and guest transfers through 'sanitised cars' at 'special rates'. Read More

Govt set to allow more flights… The government has decided to allow airlines to increase the number of flights by a third to 44% of the pre-Covid-19 levels, although carriers are operating only 65% of the total daily approved flights. The aviation ministry is likely to issue an order in this regard on Thursday and ask airlines to operate more flights. While the government is set to allow more flights, airlines have not been able to utilise the existing approvals. Passenger loads on these flights are also a concern, as airlines have been able to fill up only half the seats on the flights. Read More

AND WHO'S

Border hostility to draw curbs on China… Border hostilities could invite tighter scrutiny of bids by Chinese companies for key infrastructure projects. Offers by Chinese companies for project implementation or the supply of heavy machinery are likely to be vetted more intensely from a security standpoint. The government has in any case made Atmanirbhar Bharat Abhiyan (self-reliant India mission) the cornerstone of its economic stimulus programme. The government will also bar Chinese companies from providing any telecom equipment to state-run phone companies and may prohibit private mobile operators from using gear supplied by the likes of Huawei and ZTE. Besides place tighter restrictions are likely to be placed on the import of 371 items — ranging from toys and plastic goods to sports items, and furniture — which worth $127 billion. Read More

Bolton spills the beans for Trump… Former US National Security Advisor John Bolton writes in a new book that President Donald Trump asked Chinese leader Xi Jinping to help him win re-election by buying more US farm products, according to an excerpt published by the Wall Street Journal. The disclosure is part of a devastating portrayal of Trump's conduct of foreign policy by Bolton, the most senior official in this White House so far to publish an account of his experience. The book is poised to further burden Trump's already struggling effort to secure a second term. Read More

Indian MFs turn defensives… Domestic fund managers are shifting their portfolio exposure away from growth stocks to defensive bets. Their allocation to sectors including consumer, healthcare, telecom, technology, and utilities reached a multi-quarter high of 35.5% in May 2020, an increase of 810 bps from the December 2019 quarter, as per data compiled by Motilal Oswal. The consumer and healthcare sectors together formed 50% of the defensive exposure of mutual funds in May 2020. Read More

Meanwhile...
RBI to redefine home financing… RBI has proposed tougher rules for housing finance companies, including lending and investment curbs in group entities to prevent conflict of interest, while setting thresholds to identify the bigger players that are systemically important to the mortgage industry. In parallel, the central bank looks to change the definition of 'housing finance' and has proposed to include loans to builders for construction of residential dwelling units, schools and hospitals within its purview, while excluding loans against property from it. Read More
KEY INDICES
14,247 + 16.2
11,934 + 83.91
20,202  -94.95
14,478 + 27.65
Price Movers|Volume Movers|Near 52 Week High|Near 52 Week Low

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Stocks to Watch >>>

    IRB Infrastructure is raising a loan of Rs 6,600 crore from SBI and Union Bank of India in the largest debt tie-up for a single project.

    Tata Motors is conserving cash and tightly coupling its production plans to demand to help prevent an inventory buildup, and is banking on the eventual carve-out of its passenger car division into a unit to make the business more competitive.

    Bharti Airtel has acquired a 10% stake in Edtech startup Lattu Media for an undisclosed sum as part of the telco's startup accelerator programme.

    Sebi is probing whether a few employees of Nippon Life AMC traded in Zee Entertainment shares on the basis of insider information when it crashed on January 25, 2019.

UnQuote: WORD OF CAUTION
New investors should completely avoid smallcaps & midcaps
Dhirendra Kumar, Value Research

The DAY PLANNER

    Q4 Earnings: GSFC | IRB Infra | Thermax | MOIL | Thomas Cook
    Australia May Unemployment Rate (07.00 am)
    India Top Court Verdict on Telecom AGR Dues
    BoE Interest Rate Decision (04.30 pm)
    US June Initial Jobless Claims (6.00 pm)

OUTLOOK

Rebound from Covid-19 faster than expected
    Sahil Kapoor of Edelweiss Securities says the rate of recovery from the Covid disruption has been faster than many people had expected. "I think a lot of theories about V, L, N, W-shaped recoveries in many countries are now being abandoned. The second thing is quite clear that people know how this ends. So this is a crisis where the end is known; whether it is through a vaccine or completely flattening of the curve across the globe. In most earlier recessions or market decline, you generally do not know what the solution is," says he. Read More

Credit risk funds very risky
    Avnish Jain of Canara Robeco says credit risk funds have the capacity to give higher returns during good times but have some issues. "If something goes wrong, like downgrades or defaults, it could drastically reduce your return. So investors should clearly look at funds which have high quality paper in their portfolio. They can also look at long duration funds. Typically a lot of funds which are in a short duration basket are high quality funds but again, they need continuous monitoring," he says. Read More

Outlook improving for financials
    Hemang Jani of Motilal Oswal says incremental data points for the economy have been extremely positive for the financial sector. "Moratorium Two is much better than Moratorium One. Even in terms of disbursements, the situation is getting a bit better. The biggest relief for the entire financial space was the Supreme Court verdict that happened on June 12, where the talk was only about the interest part on the moratorium. So the Rs 2 lakh crore issue has now become too small in the overall scheme of things," he said.Read More

STOCKS RECOMMENDATIONS
Ashoka Buildcon Ltd. 18 Jun, 2020 | 08:32 AM IST buyBuy
Emami Ltd. 18 Jun, 2020 | 08:01 AM IST buyBuy


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