Thursday, 25 June 2020

July rollovers hint at limited Nifty upside | Will Hexaware delisting deliver good gains? | AAA-rated NCDs beat bank returns

MORNING NEWSLETTER

26 Jun, 2020 | 08:38 AM IST


Good Morning!

The Indian market for skin lightening products is estimated at Rs 28,000 crore ($4 billion). There have been backlashes against the industry from time to time with movie stars and activists slamming India's obsession with fair skin, which they say highlights a bias against darker faces. Unilever has put at stake Rs 3,000 crore in annual revenue by renaming its 45-year-old melanin-suppressing cream Fair & Lovely. The move followed US giant Johnson & Johnson's withdrawal of skin-whitening creams amidst the 'Black Lives Matter' protests. P&G, Nivea, Garnier, Emami and Dabur would also face similar pressure now. Finally, the fair thing to do!

76636500
MARKET CUES: Where do we stand >>>

    Nifty futures on Singapore Exchange traded 58 points higher at 7 am (IST) signalling a positive start ahead on Dalal Street

    Nifty on Thursday formed a small bullish candle on the daily chart with lower highs and lows compared with the previous session, indicating a negative bias. Analysts believe the index may test the 10,190-10,150 range soon.

    Asian stocks climbed this morning after a late rally in US shares. Shares rose in Japan and South Korea, on below-average volumes. Australia also saw gains, while Hong Kong reopened to modest declines following Thursday's holiday. China was closed.

    On Wall Street, Dow led the way to a strong finish despite worse-than-expected jobless claims and rising coronavirus fears. The index rallied 1.2%, the S&P500 rose 1.1% and the Nasdaq 1.1%

    The rupee erased its initial losses and settled 7 paise higher at 75.65 against the US dollar on Thursday tracking positive domestic equities and foreign fund inflows.

    The dollar edged higher. The yen was little changed against the greenback as did the offshore yuan. The euro was steady at $1.12

    Oil prices rose in early trade on Friday, extending gains from the previous day on optimism about recovering fuel demand worldwide. WTI crude futures gained 15 cents to $38.87 a barrel and Brent futures 22 cents to $41.27

    Gold prices jumped to Rs 48,070 from Rs 48,060 per 10 gm, while silver fell to Rs 47,600 from Rs 48,450 per kg on Thursday. In global markets, prices rose 0.2% to $1,764.20 per ounce. The yellow metal had hit a near eight-year high of $1,779.06 on Wednesday.
LOOK WHO'S
One-time relief for distressed biz… The finance ministry has initiated steps for a one-time restructuring for businesses that were viable in the pre-Covid period, but are struggling under the weight of the pandemic, the government said on Thursday. While the government has announced stimulus packages for various sectors, some businesses that were viable before the pandemic have not got fiscal support. Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said the government is in intense engagement with RBI for a one-time restructuring of debt and finances for businesses. Read More

AAA-rated NCDs draw HNIs… As interest rates on bank fixed deposits drop, the hunt among investors is for alternatives that are safe and offer better rates. One such option is non-convertible debentures (NCDs) of AAA-rated finance companies that are traded on the stock exchanges. While a fixed deposit by SBI fetches 5.3%, some of these NCDs could return 7-9% if held to maturity. Many high net worth investors (HNIs) like these NCDs because taxes on this instrument held in the demat form are not deducted at source. Read More

Quick buck in Hexaware delisting… Investors could make a quick buck from Hexaware Technologies' delisting. Analysts said a 20% gain is likely in three months if the shares are bought now and tendered in the buyback for delisting. The stock is currently trading at Rs 325, while its parent Barings Private Equity has offered Rs 285 per share to take the company private. "Previous delisting proposals in India give a cue about the hefty premiums demanded — up to 100% — by minority shareholders and the indicative offer price at Rs 285 appears significantly lower than what they would be willing to accept," say analysts. Read More

HUL does the 'fair' thing… Hindustan Unilever is dropping the word 'Fair' from its iconic skin-care brand Fair & Lovely, the country's top consumer goods firm said, amid global outrage and anti-racism protests triggered by the police killing of an African-American in the US last month. Rival Emami, too, will "most likely" rebrand its Fair & Handsome cream, said an executive. HUL's Fair and Lovely, which has an annual revenue of over Rs 3,000 crore, is sold in more than a dozen markets, primarily in Asian countries such as Sri Lanka, Indonesia and Pakistan, but India remains its biggest market. Read More

AND WHO'S
Nifty rollovers promise little upside… Traders may be expecting limited upsides from current levels in the July derivatives series if trends in rollover of futures contracts and build-up of positions are to go by. After the 8% jump in the Nifty in June series, which expired Thursday, traders have been less enthusiastic about carrying forward long positions. Analysts said indicators suggest higher build-up of bearish positions at higher levels with the Nifty expected to face hurdle at 10,500-10,600 levels. Nifty rollovers on expiry day stood at 71.6%, higher than the three-month average of 69.7% but lower than previous month's rollover figure of 75.7%, as per provisional data. Read More

EPSO may cuts interest rate for FY20… The Employees' Provident Fund Organisation (EPFO) may reduce the 8.5% interest rate declared for FY20 because of declining return on investments and tepid cash flow, lowering the payout on retirement savings of its 60 million subscribers. The interest rate was declared based on the earnings of FY20, but the payout to subscribers will be made in the second half of the current financial year. Read More

Home sales plunge across markets… Housing sales and launches have plunged to a new low across India's top seven cities in the second quarter of 2020 as the lockdown brought business and economic activities to a standstill. Sales of residential properties in top Indian cities plummeted 81% on-year during April-June, to just 12,720 units against 68,600 units a year ago, a study by real estate consultants Anarock Research said. Mumbai and Bengaluru accounted for 52% of total sales in seven cities from April to date. Other cities in the list are Delhi-National Capital Region, Kolkata, Chennai, Hyderabad and Pune. Read More

India Inc's interest coverage down… The economic slowdown aggravated by the nationwide lockdown has severely affected the ability of companies to service debt. According to the ET Intelligence Group's analysis of 32 of the Nifty 50 companies that have declared results so far excluding banking and finance companies, the aggregate interest coverage ratio for FY20 fell to a six-year low of three after staying between four and six since FY15. The trend is expected to continue in the current fiscal given the expectations of a contraction in economic activities. Read More

China splits chemicals industry… China has split India's chemicals industry down the middle. There's one set of companies that could carry on just fine without much help from the northern neighbour. But then there are others that appear tied to their elaborate supply chains based in China's industry hubs. D-Street believes the companies that could gain from anti-China rhetoric in the short term include SRF, Aarti Industries, Atul, Bharat Rasayan, Navin Fluorine and Excel Industries because of little raw-materials dependence on China, while others like Rallis, Dhanuka, Sumitomo India, Insecticides India, Coromandel, Fine Organic and Bayer Cropscience could face temporary disruptions due to their dependence on China. Read More

Meanwhile...
Formal job creation hit… Formal employment generation was hit in the first month of the nationwide lockdown, as the monthly net subscriber addition at retirement fund body Employees' Provident Fund Organisation (EPFO) in April fell to the lowest since 2017 when the government started compiling this data. The EPFO added 1.33 lakh subscribers on a net basis in April. Net additions under the Employees State Insurance Corporation (ESIS) totalled 2.41 lakh in April, while those under the National Pension Scheme (NPS) stood at 64,647. Read More
KEY INDICES
14,941 + 131.45
12,606 + 95.37
21,506 + 79.35
14,411  -170.25
Price Movers|Volume Movers|Near 52 Week High|Near 52 Week Low

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Stocks to Watch >>>

Sajjan Jindal-led JSW Steel has asked for time until March next year to complete the acquisition of Bhushan Power & Steel as part of an insolvency resolution plan.

CBI filed its first chargesheet in a case alleging criminal conspiracy between Yes Bank co-founder Rana Kapoor and DHFL promoters Kapil and Dheeraj Wadhawan to sanction loans in a quid pro quo arrangement.

Bharti Airtel has rolled out performance bonus for employees but held back the hikes and will take a call when the business turns around sustainably.

Indian Overseas Bank has booked net profit during the March 2020 quarter after 18 straight months, while reporting net non-performing assets below 6% of advances for two consecutive quarters.

UnQuote: RED FLAG
Excessive central bank support may create zombie markets
Mohamed El-Erian, Chief Economic Advisor, Allianz Group

The DAY PLANNER

    Q4 Earnings: ITC | Century Ply | Coal India | EIH | Eldeco | Gati | Glenmark | IRCTC | OIL | Ruchi Soya | Sun TV | UCO Bank
    US Fed Stress Test Results For Big Banks (2.00 am)
    UK May Car Production (01.30 pm)
    RBI Forex Reserve as of June 19 (05.00 pm)
    Q1 Current Account Deficit (05.00 pm)
    US May Personal Spending (06.00 pm)

OUTLOOK
Stock pickers' dream market
    Sumeet Nagar of Malabar Investments says this is a stock pickers' dream market. "You have seen a fairly steep correction in the market in March and April and as a result stock prices of many companies came below the intrinsic values. That is usually a good environment to be able to invest and find good opportunities. What made it more challenging was that in this environment, the intrinsic values of companies also got impacted to some extent," says he. Read More

Realtors need no subsidy
    Irfan Razack of Prestige Group says what Union Minister Piyush Goyal really meant was that if there is a ready inventory of real estate, you may as well sell and liquidate and pay off the banks and that the government is not there to support or subsidise it. "The real estate industry is not looking up to the government for any subsidy. Since we are an industry that supports almost 250 ancillary industries and we also are the largest provider in terms of employment for the unorganised sector and since we churn the GDP, we need some government support," says he. Read More

Cement firms using only 55% capacity
    Jamshed Naval Cooper of Heidelberg Cement says capacity utilisation for many cement companies will be hovering between 55% and 60%. "Today many of these companies will have a very high breakeven. When you have high debt, you want to service it. When you service it at a lower volume, you have got to make a little more margin than what you are making at 70% utilisation. If you are to break even at 50% and if you are operating at 50%, you are not making any margins," says he. Read More

STOCKS RECOMMENDATIONS
State Bank of India 26 Jun, 2020 | 08:28 AM IST buyBuy
Bharti Airtel Ltd. 26 Jun, 2020 | 08:16 AM IST buyBuy


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