Thursday, 18 June 2020

EPFO cuts back on debt, equity play | Global funds dumping Indian corp bonds | China boycott plans lift BHEL fortunes

MORNING NEWSLETTER

19 Jun, 2020 | 08:51 AM IST


Good Morning!

India has company on Google tax. The European Union on Thursday said it could impose taxes on digital giants such as Google, Amazon and Facebook even without a global agreement by the year end. They say tech firms pay too little tax in countries where they do business, because they can shift profits around the globe and it is time to bring corporate taxation into the 21st century. Washington is resistant to these new taxes on Silicon Valley companies. They quit the OECD-organised talks on the first major rewrite of global tax rules to bring them up to date for the digital era, stoking fears of a new trade war.

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MARKET CUES: Where do we stand >>>

    Nifty futures on Singapore Exchange traded 38 points lower at 7 am (IST) signalling a weak start ahead on Dalal Street

    On Thursday, Nifty formed a solid bullish candle on the daily chart with small lower and upper wicks, suggesting the bulls' dominance. The index breached the immediate hurdle at 10,000 and analysts said there are good chances that the index might gain further in the coming sessions.

    Asian stocks traded mixed as low volumes and the absence of fresh catalysts reflected a lack conviction in markets after the risk-asset rally petered out earlier this month. Early gains in Japan gave way to a modest decline. South Korean shares also retreated, while Australia saw gains and Hong Kong was flat.

    US stocks closed mixed overnight as investors weighed a resurgence in coronavirus infections and the possibility of a new round of shutdowns. Dow fell 39.51 points, or 0.15%; while the S&P500 gained 1.85 points, or 0.06%, and the Nasdaq 32.52 points, or 0.33%

    The rupee settled flat on Thursday, registering just 2 paise rise to 76.14 against the US dollar, tracking weak US dollar and gains in the domestic equity market.

    The US dollar strengthened as concerns about a rise in new coronavirus cases globally. The euro weakened about half-a-per cent against the greenback, while Japanese yen strengthened against the euro

    Oil prices pushed higher on Friday after Opec producers and allies promised to meet their supply cut commitments. WTI crude futures climbed 14 cents, or 0.4%, to $38.98 a barrel, while Brent crude futures crawled up 7 cents, or 0.2%, to $41.58

    Gold prices fell for the second day in a row in Indian markets amid flat global prices. On MCX, August gold futures fell 0.05% to Rs 47,316 per 10 gm, following a Rs 250 decline in the previous session. Silver futures shed half a per cent to Rs 48,194 a kg. In global markets, gold rates remained flat at $1,726.69 per ounce.

LOOK WHO'S

PM says India ready for swift rebound… Economic indicators show that India is ready for a swift bounceback as business activity and demand are back to the level seen before the Covid-19 pandemic, Prime Minister Narendra Modi said on Thursday. Modi expressed his optimism while launching the auction of 41 coal blocks for commercial mining, which he said would be another big leap for the sector, which was once mired in scams, excessive state control and inefficiencies. The auction is expected to attract Rs 33,000 crore investments over 5-7 years. Read More

India to launch new rural job programme… India will launch a new rural jobs programme on Saturday to alleviate the distress of hundreds and thousands of migrants who have lost their jobs and returned to their villages due to the strict lockdown aimed at containing the spread of the new coronavirus. Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said the government would spend 500 billion rupees for the programme. Read More

SC asks telcos to pay 'reasonable' AGR dues… The Supreme Court on Thursday sought payment of 'reasonable' amounts from all telcos, as well as their audited balance sheets and I-T returns for last 10 years, including for the year ended March 31, 2020, along with details of AGR dues paid during this period, before it considers a government plan to give them a 20-year window for payments. Telcos owe Rs 1.7 lakh crore by way of AGR dues comprising license fees, spectrum usage charge, interest and penalties to the government as per the court's order. Read More

Highest monthly flow into NRI accounts… NRIs poured in almost $2 billion in April as deposits into their rupee accounts at Indian banks, making it the highest single-month inflow in more than two years as they chase yields amid falling returns in developed markets. As central banks across the world began slashing borrowing costs, Indians overseas found the interest rates in Indian banks more attractive and safe than keeping it elsewhere. In April alone, Indian banks got $1.95 billion as deposits, data from RBI show. Read More

AND WHO'S

SIP discontinuance ratio at record high… Shrinking disposable income in the hands of retail investors and fear of job losses have started affecting inflows through the mutual fund SIP route. The ratio of discontinued SIPs to new SIPs – the discontinuance ratio – hit a record high of 81% in May 2020, Amfi data showed. It was 61% in December 2019 while the 50-month average was 49%. In May, 6.5 lakh SIPs were discontinued, the highest so far, whereas 8.1 lakh new SIPs were registered. The total SIP book dropped to Rs 8,123 crore in May, the lowest in 11 months. Read More

ADB projects Indian economy to shrink 4%... Asian Development Bank expects Indian economy to contract by 4% in FY21 against a growth of 4% projected in April. In a report on Thursday, the ADB also cut the growth forecast for India for FY22 to 5% compared with 6.2% projected in April. It said growth in India's GDP slowed to 3.1% in the last quarter of FY20, its slowest since early 2003 and the economic growth slowed to 4.2% in the whole of FY20 as both exports and investment started to contract. Read More

Home loan portfolio showing a crack… Mortgage, considered the safest segment of lending in India, is showing signs of cracks as delinquencies at India Mortgage Guarantee Corporation nearly doubled from the year-ago levels, reflecting the stress of job losses and salary cuts. IMGC, which has guaranteed loans worth Rs 8,500 crore, has seen the affordable home segment contributing the highest to defaults. With almost a quarter of its guaranteed book under moratorium, the real picture of the stress is expected to be known from September onwards. Read More
EPFO cuts investment in bonds, equities…. India's biggest debt investor EPFO has cut its investments in bonds and equities in the past five weeks as contributions to the corpus decline and claims rise due to the sudden disruptions in salary incomes on account of the nationwide lockdown to combat Covid-19. The fund is estimated to have halved its investments to about Rs 5,000 crore since May, said a senior executive involved in EPFO's decision making. In May alone, it invested about Rs 4,000 crore compared with an average of Rs 8,000-9,000 crore invested every month prior to the lockdown. Read More

Meanwhile...
Chinese firms pull back ads…. Chinese smartphone and electronics firms have decided to scale down marketing and pull back advertisements at least for a week to 10 days, fearing that such activity may backfire as #BoycottChineseProduct trends in the country. Industry executives said companies such as Xiaomi, Vivo, Oppo, OnePlus, TCL and a few others have decided to curb promotions and will review the situation after a few days. They have withdrawn ads from TV, and reduced those on billboards and traffic signals, besides stopping campaigns featuring Indian celebrities on digital, social media and ecommerce sites. Read More
KEY INDICES
14,428 + 180.75
12,111 + 177.19
20,956 + 754.55
14,551 + 72.8
Price Movers|Volume Movers|Near 52 Week High|Near 52 Week Low

For in-depth stock analysis, live market updates & more, download ET Markets App

Stocks to Watch >>>

RIL will raise Rs 11,367 crore more by selling a 2.32 per cent stake in Jio Platforms to Saudi Arabia's Public Investment Fund.

BHEL shares rose 16.6% on Thursday, as expectation grew that the government may restrict import of cheaper Chinese alternatives following an over month-long standoff between Indian and Chinese troops.

UV Asset Reconstruction, which is taking over Aircel and its two units, aims to pay Rs 6,630 crore to financial creditors in five years, failing which they get 74% in the telco, up from 26% now.

Mahindra & Mahindra is looking to attract private equity (PE) funding for its decade-old electric vehicle business. This is part of the company's new strategy of looking at fewer businesses which would be profitable in the long run.

Chemicals maker Vinati Organics aims to double its revenue every three-four years by continuing to develop scalable manufacturing processes for niche chemicals.

UnQuote: LONG-TERM BET
We'll like to buy PSUs at the low fair value than above fair value.
Nilesh Shah, Kotak AMC

The DAY PLANNER

    Q4 Earnings: OIL | PNB | Novartis | Ramco Systems | Zuari | LIC Housing
    Japan May Inflation Print (05.00 am)
    BoJ Money Policy Meeting Minutes (05.20 am)
    RBI Forex Reserve as of June 12 (05.00 pm)
    India Bank Loan/Deposit Growth (05.00 pm)
    India Q1 Current Account Deficit (05.30 pm)
    Fed Chair Powell Speech (10.30 pm)

OUTLOOK

Outlook not that bleak for banking
    Former SBI chairperson Arundhati Bhattacharya says much of the problems in India's banking space were already down, when the pandemic surfced. "Weak accounts had already been identified and there were a lot of provisions. Even in a bank like SBI, provisions have gone up to 83%. If you take away the assets under collection, it is still in excess of 63 per cent. So the provisions for the older NPAs are all there. And if you look at the newer ones, I feel it will be the weaker and smaller accounts that will fall," she says. Read More

Voda-Idea fundamentally strong
    Prashant Singhal of EY says from a fundamental standpoint, Voda Idea is a strong company. "There is a customer base of 230-240 million; maybe closer to 300 million. The fundamentals are strong, and the industry is strong. They just need the support. We can see the telecom sector pull back. There has been a tariff rise in December. The whole sector would soon make enough profits to invest in better quality services as well as to repay some of those debts," says he. Read More

Bet on outward-looking sectors
    Mihir Vora of Max Life Insurance says he is overweight on sectors like IT, chemicals, where there are good exporters, some of the auto ancillaries, which are global in nature, global exporters and pharmaceutical firms because the need for drugs will continue. "The outward-looking sectors are something that we are more overweight on. Locally, we see it taking longer to come back from a slowdown," says he. Read More

STOCKS RECOMMENDATIONS
Indraprastha Gas Ltd. 19 Jun, 2020 | 08:17 AM IST SellSell
Ipca Laboratories Ltd. 19 Jun, 2020 | 07:56 AM IST buyBuy


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