Thursday 2 April 2020

Financial, auto stocks under bear gaze | IndusInd seeks confidence capital | Aurobindo calls off Sandoz deal

MORNING NEWSLETTER

3 Apr, 2020 | 08:39 AM IST


Good Morning!

As strong volatility becomes the new normal on Dalal Street, investors face a big dilemma: if the market gains 20-30% tomorrow, they will miss out on the opportunity. But the point is, markets do not always move in one direction. There will be phases of consolidation, which will throw up enough opportunities. If the rally begins tomorrow, even at a slightly higher price level, you would still get your favourite stock 20 per cent lower, if not 30 per cent. At least, you would know it won't go further down. So, it makes sense to wait out, and let the cues come.

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STREET PULSE: Where we stand
Nifty futures on the Singapore Exchange traded some 60 points higher at 7am (IST), signalling possible gains ahead on Dalal Street. Elsewhere in Asia, stock markets looked to latch onto Wall Street's overnight gains after crude prices notched their biggest one-day surge on record, helping offset concerns about the depth of a global recession. Read More

    Across Asia, stocks fluctuated in Australia and South Korea, gained in Japan, and opened lower in China and Hong Kong. While Australia's S&P/ASX 200 Index was flat, Kospi rose 0.4%, Hang Seng fell 0.9% and Shanghai Composite 0.3%.

    On Wall Street, the Dow rose 2.2%, the S&P 500 gained 2.3% and the Nasdaq added 1.7% in overnight trade after US President Donald Trump said he expects Russia and Saudi Arabia to announce an oil production cut of up to 10 million to 15 million barrels.

    Benchmark US crude fell more than 1% in early trade on Friday, coming off its biggest one-day gain in the previous session. WTI crude fell 1.4%, or 36 cents, to $24.96 a barrel, after having surged 24.7% on Thursday.

    As for the rupee, India's currency market was shut on April 1 on account of the annual closing of accounts, while April 2 was a public holiday for Ram Navami.

WHO'S

BIG IT STARES AT SLOWDOWN… India's IT giants will see a significant slowdown in growth this financial year as they grapple with the upheaval wrought by the Covid-19 pandemic. Analysts say top software exporters TCS, Infosys and HCL Technologies will be impacted by reduced technology spending by clients in the US and Europe following the lockdowns across the globe. Read More

MANUFACTURING AT 4-MONTH LOW… Slow increase in output and new business, coupled with a steep decline in exports following the global coronavirus pandemic, pulled down India's manufacturing activity to a four-month low in March, a private survey showed on Thursday. The IHS Markit India Manufacturing PMI fell to 51.8 in March from 54.5 in February. A reading above 50 indicates expansion, while a figure below signals contraction. Read More

RETAILERS, CINEMAS SEEK RENTAL WAIVER… India's largest restaurant chains, retailers and multiplexes such as McDonald's, Jubilant FoodWorks-operated Domino's Pizza, Speciality Restaurants, Reliance Retail, Future Group, Spencer's Retail and PVR have written individually to mall owners invoking the force majeure clause to seek waiver of rentals up till May amid the lockdown. They have cited zero revenues in the immediate term and about 50% drop in revenues for several months to come. Read More

LOOK WHO'S

BIGGIES BOND WITH CHEAPER CASH… RIL has announced plans to raise up to Rs 25,000 crore in proposed non-convertible bond issues, even as several of its large peers including the Tata Group, the Birla Group and L&T and top Indian banks are busy negotiating mutually-beneficial investment deals after a special central bank facility allowed lenders to borrow cheaply. The Reliance announcement came a day before RBI's second instalment of targeted long-term repo operations scheduled for Friday, when Rs 25,000 crore will enter the system out of a Rs 1 lakh crore package. Read More

INDUSIND HUNTS CONFIDENCE CAPITAL... The Hinduja family-backed IndusInd Bank is looking to raise as much as $500-750 million "confidence capital" from marque global investors to soothe investor nerves frayed by worries over rising bad loans due to the Covid-19 outbreak and outflow of deposits after the collapse of Yes Bank. The private lender, arguably the worst-hit bank stock since the coronavirus outbreak, has mandated Morgan Stanley and Citi to tap a handful of PE funds, like Blackstone, Apax Partners, General Atlantic, Advent, TPG and Carlyle. Read More

EXITING LOCKDOWN... Prime Minister Narendra Modi has called for a "staggered re-emergence" from the Covid-19 lockdown that's scheduled to end on April 14. Modi told state CMs in a video-conference to come up with suggestions for a common "exit strategy", the PMO said. This suggests the government may not seek to extend the lockdown that has shuttered factories and offices, bringing economic activity to a halt. Read More

Meanwhile...
REALTY FACES PRICE CUTS... India's real estate market is likely to see a significant price correction for the first time in a decade as the coronavirus pandemic stalls businesses across the country, according to a half-dozen industry insiders. "Property prices may come down by 10-20% across geographies, while land prices could see an even higher reduction of 30%," said realty consultancy firm Liases Foras. "It is a complete buyer's market. So if somebody really wants to do the deal, they have to reduce prices," said Raheja Realty in Mumbai. Read More
KEY INDICES
11,471  -232.8
9,507  -102.01
18,208  -935.65
12,046  -717.8
Price Movers|Volume Movers|Near 52 Week High|Near 52 Week Low

For in-depth stock analysis, live market updates & more, download ET Markets App

Stocks to Watch >>>

    Private equity giant Blackstone is consolidating its position in IT services firm MPhasis by acquiring additional stake, taking advantage of the fall in share price.

    Fitch Ratings on Thursday said it has downgraded Future Retail's rating and put the company on Rating Watch Negative list reflecting heightened risk to its liquidity position.

    Zydus Cadila said it has received final approval from the US health regulator to market generic Lamotrigine extended-release tablets, used to treat certain types of seizures.

    ONGC will lose about Rs 4,000 crore in revenue and start making cash losses after the government slashed the natural gas prices by a steep 26 per cent by benchmarking it against rates prevalent in gas-surplus nations.

    Aurobindo Pharma on Thursday said the $900 million deal to acquire Sandoz Inc's US-based generic oral solids and dermatology businesses, has been mutually called off.

    TVS Motor on Thursday reported a 55.5 per cent decline in total sales in March at 1,44,739 units.

    Novartis AG on Thursday scrapped the $1 billion sale of US generic pill and skin drug assets to India's Aurobindo Pharma as regulators balked, setting back the Swiss drugmaker's shift to more profitable.

UnQuote: SECTORAL BETS
Underweight on BFSI, overweight on IT, pharma:
Manish Sonthalia, Motilal Oswal PMS

The DAY PLANNER

    RBI's Foreign Exchange Reserves
    China Caixin Services PMI for March
    Euro Area Markit Services PMI for March
    UK Markit/CIPS UK Services PMI March
    US March Unemployment Rate
    US Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count

OUTLOOK
HAVE MONEY? PAY UP
    Keki Mistry of HDFC says only about 1% customers have written to the mortgage lender seeking an EMI deferment. "When you avail of it, you must understand, it is not a deferment of interest. It is only a deferment of cash flow. Therefore, the interest will continue to accrue on the account. If you have the liquidity, people would be to not avail of the deferment," says he. Read More

THINK LOCAL, FORGET GLOBAL
    Dipan Mehta of Elixir Equities says sectors that are globally focused and externally oriented may get impacted more, as India might come out of the Covid-19 crisis earlier than some of the European nations and the US. "Once the lockdown gets over, the best stocks to invest in would be FMCG companies, and thereafter the discretionary products and then the last would be entertainment and travel," says he. Read More

PHARMA, CHEMICALS WELL POISED
    Daljeet Singh Kohli of Valentis Advisors says it is too early to say which sectors will be the leader of the next market rally. "It appears to be pharma and related companies like chemicals. So, we have been bullish on speciality chemicals for quite some time. Many of the stocks have come down substantially. So they could be the leaders of the next rally," says he. Read More

STOCKS RECOMMENDATIONS
Hexaware Technologies Ltd. 3 Apr, 2020 | 08:22 AM IST buyBuy
Coal India Ltd. 3 Apr, 2020 | 08:21 AM IST buyBuy


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