Monday 20 April 2020

Oil slips below zero in ominuous signs | CLSA cuts bank stock targets by up to 70% | MFs jittery after HC grants debt relief to NBFC

MORNING NEWSLETTER

21 Apr, 2020 | 08:42 AM IST


Good Morning!

When May futures of West Texas Intermediate oil plunged into the negative territory on Monday, they marked the first time in history when oil prices went negative. The contract value effectively meant those holding oil must now pay buyers to take barrels off their hands. It reflected dearth of capacity to store the black gold as refineries, storage facilities, pipelines and ocean tankers all got filled up amid a massive demand drop due to the coronavirus disruption. The world has indeed been unsettled unimaginably!

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MARKET CUES: Where we stand >>>
    Nifty futures on the Singapore Exchange traded 66 points lower at 7 am (IST), signalling weakness ahead on Dalal Street.

    Nifty on Monday formed a Small Bearish Candle on the daily charts, but market breadth favoured advancing counters in relief for the bulls.

    India VIX rose 2.03 per cent to 43.45 level after a decline in last three sessions, in signs that it may trigger a pause in the market bounce.

    Elsewhere in Asia, stocks followed their US counterparts lower this morning. Equities opened lower in Japan, Australia and South Korea. Australia's S&P/ASX 200 Index fell 1.1%, Kospi lost 0.7% and the Hang Seng 0.8%.

    Wall Street tumbled overnight after US crude futures turned negative for the first time ever. The Dow dropped 2.44% to end at 23,650 points, while the S&P500 lost 1.79% and the Nasdaq 1.03%.

    US crude oil jumped more than $20 per barrel on Tuesday but still traded below $0. WTI Crude for May delivery rose by $21.96 to -$15.67 a barrel after settling down at a $37.63 discount per barrel in the previous session.

    The rupee declined by 14 paise to settle at 76.53 against the US dollar, amid strengthening of the greenback overseas and a sharp rise in coronavirus cases in the country.

WHO'S

Oil in the Red... Oil futures in the US collapsed to below zero for the first time ever as the deepening economic turmoil caused by the coronavirus crisis left traders desperate to avoid taking delivery of physical crude. In an unprecedented day of trading, the price for the May contracts wiped out all value, breaking every low for oil prices since 1946. Read More
Bank Stocks Cut to Size... CLSA has cut price targets for Indian banks by 20-70% as Covid-19 has disrupted an already struggling credit growth trend in the country as well as raised asset quality risks. It said the unprecedented disruption caused by Covid-19 and a 40-day lockdown have put brakes on an already struggling credit environment. The foreign brokerage quoted banks as having said that normalcy could be restored in two to three quarters depending on the severity of the disruption. Read More

NBFC Headache for MFs... Delhi High Court has granted non-banking financial company Indiabulls permission to not pay its debenture holders, including fund houses, interest and principal as long as RBI allows banks and NBFCs to offer moratorium to their borrowers. Mutual Funds now fear other NBFCs may take the same route and not pay them for the next few weeks. Read More

LOOK WHO'S

Bid to Revive Economy... Cement makers resumed production in a phased manner on Monday, while steelmakers began to prepare for a gradual increase in output after the Centre allowed some sectors to open up from April 20, but left it to states to approve resumption on a case-by-case basis. Auto firms haven't resumed and neither have smartphone makers. Critically, most construction sites are still silent. Some are awaiting greater clarity and, in some instances, approvals from state governments. Others are located in hot spots and can't restart. Read More

NBFC Dollar Bonds Rally... Dollar bonds of last-mile financiers such as IIFL Finance, Manappuram Finance, Muthoot Finance and Shriram Transport Finance rallied 11-36% from record lows in the past two-three weeks, indicating increasing appetite overseas for debt sold by Indian NBFCs. Deutsche Bank, Varde Partners, Avenue Capital, SC Lowy, and BlackRock were among those seen negotiating secondary market deals, even as high-yield bonds from other emerging markets such as Mexico found few takers. Read More

Bond with the Best... The Series 1 sovereign gold bond scheme of 2020-21 opened on Monday and financial advisers said higher market risks and free-flowing liquidity from global central banks make gold a favourable asset in the given circumstances. They advised savers to increase allocation to gold, and said the sovereign gold bond can be one of the best ways to buy into the asset. Read More

Meanwhile...
VCs Seek Extra Time... A number of venture capital fund managers are likely to ask investors to extend the lifecycle of their funds, as they look to ride out the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic that has brought deal making and fundraising to a grinding halt. India's VC-backed startups have been hit significantly as the country imposed a mandatory lockdown to contain the outbreak. Industry watchers said funds which have a 10-year lifecycle are going back to their Limited Partners to get 1-2 year extensions. Read More
KEY INDICES
13,114 + 66.85
10,887 + 86.0
20,523  -158.8
12,848 + 198.4
Price Movers|Volume Movers|Near 52 Week High|Near 52 Week Low

For in-depth stock analysis, live market updates & more, download ET Markets App

Stocks to Watch >>>

    ICICI Bank has a $100 million exposure to Singapore-based oil trading company Hin Leong Trading Pte, which has filed for bankruptcy protection in the Singapore courts.

    Tata Sons is in talks with leading global banks to raise nearly $1 billion through a revolving credit facility to recapitalise some of its key businesses in Europe.

    Infosys did not provide a revenue forecast for FY21 citing Covid-19 uncertainty, in a first for India's second-largest software exporter.

    Cognizant's revenue may be hit by the Maze ransomware attack last week, the IT firm told US Securities and Exchange Commission.

    Zydus Cadila on Monday said it could soon start a trial to see the effectiveness of pegylated interferon alpha-2b as a treatment for Covid-19.

    P&G is trying to work with state governments to establish that its product categories are essential in nature and should be allowed to operate in the market.

UnQuote: INHERENT STRENGTH
Infosys has enough liquidity to withstand this crisis
Sudip Bandyopadhyay, Inditrade Capital

The DAY PLANNER

    Q4 Earnings: ACC | Crisil | ICICI Pru Life | DEN
    UK Feb Unemployment Rate
    US March Existing Home Sales
    Australia Central Bank Minutes

OUTLOOK
Banks to Have Lousy Q1
    Deepak Shenoy, Founder of Capital Mind, says while HDFC Bank's March quarter earnings were phenomenal, one has to remember that Q4 had only seven days of a real slowdown. "One of the biggest parts of the retail portfolio, which is the credit cards, is going to see a substantial downtick this quarter. For auto loans, April has gone and a lot of activity is unlikely in May and June. "They are going to have a pretty lousy June quarter," says he. Read More

FMCG Evergreen Bet
    Independent Market Expert Ajay Bagga says FMCG is an evergreen space and is preferred in this kind of scenario. "People are still spending on groceries and essentials. So, FMCG stocks are getting bid up, and we expect them to continue to perform well. Valuations are not very low, but that has been the case with India's consumption economy. What will recover first will be consumption. It would not be investments," he said. Read More

Avoid Financials for Now
    Jitendra Gohil of Credit Suisse Wealth Management says investors should avoid financials for the next few quarters. "Before going into Covid, we had already seen how NPA issues stood and most of the NBFCs were struggling. One should look at only a couple of larger banks or life insurers. Otherwise the financial sector as a whole is going to see more trouble before seeing any improvement," he said. Read More

STOCKS RECOMMENDATIONS
Bharti Airtel Ltd. 21 Apr, 2020 | 08:41 AM IST buyBuy
Essel Propack Ltd. 21 Apr, 2020 | 08:26 AM IST buyBuy


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