Thursday 3 September 2020

Rel Retail may sell stake to Silver Lake I Vedanta cuts book value to depress delisting price I SBI perpetual bonds to offer 7.4-7.5%

MORNING NEWSLETTER

4 Sep, 2020 | 08:39 AM IST


Good Morning!

Warren Buffett came under scrutiny during the market rebound from the Covid crisis lows, as he missed the big party trying to play safe. Three months down, analysts are carefully taking a relook at his pandemic time moves to conclude that the legendary investor in fact adopted a very 'dynamic approach to portfolio management' through the extraordinary times. Previously known for steering clear of gold, Buffett actually broke that stand to invest in Candian gold miner Barrick Gold, which delivered him peak returns. He sold out of US airlines, cut exposure to US banks -- bets that fragile US economic recovery is putting at risks after an initial bounce. The Sage of Omaha barely touched Japan for years, but has now gone and invested $6 billion in five of the biggest trading firms -- referred to as Japan's original globalisers -- which some see as a bet on the recovery in global commodities. Should we say extraordinary measures for extraordinary times?

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MARKET CUES: Where do we stand >>>

    Nifty futures on the Singapore Exchange traded 115 points lower at 7 am (IST) this morning, signaling a gap down start for Dalal Street.

    On Thursday, Nifty50 continued to consolidate and eventually formed a Small Bearish Candle on the daily chart. The index formed a higher low for a third session, suggesting that support has shifted higher.

    Shares from Sydney to Shanghai slipped, though losses were smaller than the 3.5% slide in the S&P500 Index. Japan's Topix index fell 1%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng 1.4%, Shanghai Composite 1.4%, South Korea's Kospi 1.3% and Australia's S&P/ASX 200 2.5%.

    US stocks fell sharply Thursday in their worst showing since June, driven by a broad decline in many of the technology stocks. The tech-heavy Nasdaq dropped nearly 5%, its biggest one-day percentage decline since June 11. The S&P500 lost 3.5% while the Dow fell 808 points, or 2.8%

    Oil prices slipped. on track for a weekly loss, as investors' focus shifted to lacklustre demand and ample fuel supplies. Brent futures fell 19 cents to $43.88 a barrel while WTI crude futures drops 20 cents to $41.17

    The rupee slumped 44 paise to close at 73.47 against the US dollar on Thursday as rise in demand for the American currency from oil importers weighed on forex market sentiment.

    The dollar extended its recent bounce a little. The Australian dollar fell 0.1% to hit a one-week low, while the euro steadied as did the yen. The offshore yuan traded at 6.8418 per dollar.

    Gold prices fell to Rs 54,110 per 10 gm a day before, while silver declined to Rs 65,600 a kg. On MCX, October gold futures fell by 0.16 per cent to Rs 50,742, while silver September futures traded at Rs 64,717 per kg. In international markets, gold rose 0.3% to $1,936.72 an ounce

LOOK WHO'S

Voda Idea may raise $1.5 bn… Vodafone Idea is considering raising $1-1.5 billion initially through equity and is in talks with local and overseas investment bankers for running the mandate, said people familiar with the matter. US-based PJT Partners, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Bank of America-Merrill Lynch, Prime Securities, Axis Capital and Kotak Investment Bank are among those with whom discussions have been held, the persons added. Read More

Rel Retail may sell stake to Silver Lake… Reliance Retail is in advanced talks with US private equity investor Silver Lake to sell 1.7-1.8% stake for about Rs 7,500 crore, in what could be the first such deal by the Mukesh Ambani-owned company to raise funds, two senior industry executives said. The news was first reported by the Financial Times late Thursday. If the deal materialises, it would potentially value Reliance Retail at over Rs 4.1 lakh crore. Read More

400 Mumbai builders waive stamp duty… Realty developers affiliated to the Naredco will waive stamp duty completely for buyers in Maharashtra. The association has 400 members across the Mumbai Metropolitan Region, Pune and Nashik who will bear the stamp duty registration cost. This offer is available till October 31 for at least 1,000 housing projects. From September 1 till December end, the state has announced a 2% stamp duty to revive the real estate industry. Read More

2 Templeton shut funds now cash positive… Two more of the six debt schemes of Franklin Templeton Mutual Fund that have been shut down have turned cash positive, said the fund house in a communication to investors. With this, four out of the six schemes have now turned cash positive. This means all the money that these schemes receive will be used to pay back unitholders. Read More

AND WHO'S

Margin rule chaos disrupts settlements… The confusion in the stock market sparked by the new margin and pledge system introduced on September 1 heightened on Thursday, disrupting the settlement cycle and causing trading activity to fall further. The settlement cycle could not be completed the same day on Wednesday for the first time in NSE's history and brokers continued to struggle to provide initial margins even for clients who had pledged their shares afresh. Sebi stepped in on Thursday, asking stock exchanges not to impose penalties on brokers for non-collection of initial margins from clients. Read More

Vedanta tries a trick to depress delisting price... Vedanta on Wednesday reduced the book value per share of its Indian-listed holding company Vedanta to Rs 89.38 from Rs 146.87, a move that drew criticism from analysts. For FY20, the company has indicated a BV Rs 54,600 crore, while the revised BV reflects a Rs 21,400 crore writeoff from capital reserves. In May, the promoters of Vedanta announced a delisting offer at Rs 87.5 per share as against the then BV per share of Rs 146.87, drawing severe criticism from analysts. The latest move is to tone down the expectations of minority shareholders on the delisting price, said analysts. Read More

Kamath panel sees pain in 6 sectors… The KV Kamath committee, set to submit its report on loan restructuring to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Friday, is said to have identified six problem sectors, among them aviation, real estate, automobiles, infrastructure and power, said people with knowledge of the matter. The committee has suggested solutions for 29 of the 307 sectors it assessed, they said. Read More

Meanwhile...
Private banks set to grab more market share… Significant capital buffers will allow private sector banks to accelerate their market share gains even as their public-sector rivals look to North Block for funds and struggle to absorb acquisitions directed by the state Fitch said on Thursday. The rating agency estimated that private sector banks gained 18.5 percentage points in market share in the last decade, mostly at the expense of their PSU counterparts. Read More
KEY INDICES
17,214 + 144.45
14,761 + 108.95
23,531  -343.7
18,349 + 271.55
Price Movers|Volume Movers|Near 52 Week High|Near 52 Week Low

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Stocks to Watch >>>

SBI is raising up to Rs 4,000 crore in perpetual bonds at 7.4-7.5% and these securities are likely to come up for bidding on Monday.

Infosys has acquired Kaleidoscope Innovation, a product design, development and insights firm focused on the medical device market, for $42 million (over Rs 300 crore).

PNB Housing Finance is set to lay off 5-7% of its employees in an apparent bid to reduce cost amid shrinking business, two people familiar with the matter said.

Crisis-hit IL&FS will invite initial bids for selling its corporate headquarters in Mumbai's Bandra-Kurla Complex later this month, about two years after the debt-laden infrastructure lender went bust.

Franklin Templeton MF has received interest payment of Rs 146 crore from Vodafone Idea on September 3, which will be distributed among investors in proportion to their holdings.

UnQuote: WHAT NOT TO BANK UPON
Staying away from Indian banks, but worst is over
Chris Wood, Global Head of Equity Strategy, Jefferies

The DAY PLANNER

    RBI Forex Reserve AUG 28 (05.00 pm)
    Euro Area Construction PMI AUG (01:00 pm)
    UK New Car Sales YoY AUG (02:00 pm)
    UK Construction PMI AUG (03:00 pm)
    BoE Saunders Speech (04:30 pm)
    US Unemployment Rate AUG (06:00 pm)
    US Baker Hughes Total Rig Count 04/SEP (10.3 pm)

OUTLOOK

Bharti vs Voda Idea: Which one?
    Anu Jain of IIFL Wealth says there is a big difference in the way people are approaching Bharti and Voda Idea. "Whereas Bharti is a long-term stock, where people are looking at the Arpu play. Arpu has moved up closer to Rs 200 over a year and a half and the fact that it has kind of paid up more than 10% of what is required to be paid as per the AGR ruling. Voda Idea is more of a play on the hope that it will be able to survive and hold 15% market share," says he. Read More

Why Marcellus does not like RIL
    Saurabh Mukherjea of Marcellus Investment says in the case of RIL, the return on capital has not been above the cost to capital consistently, given everything they have done over the last two years. "Maybe going forward, they will have a return on capital that will be above the cost to capital for a sustained period, in which case we look at it. But we try not to make speculative bets, because if we do, then our customers will say well I could have done that myself, I could have watched, I could have read newspapers, watched financial news and made those speculative bets," he says. Read More

Why so much buzz around Voda Idea?
    Sudip Bandyopadhyay of Inditrade Capital says it will definitely be an uphill task for Voda Idea to raise funds. "But if I look at the entire Supreme Court verdict vis-à-vis Vodafone-Idea, this was a write-off case completely. People were reasonably sure that Voda-Idea will close down, if there is a significantly adverse judgment. So the 10-year timeframe to settle the adjusted gross revenue (AGR) dues at least gives them a lease of life. If they can raise the money, they will survive and that is a positive and the market is cheering that," says he. Read More

STOCKS RECOMMENDATIONS
Coal India Ltd. 3 Sep, 2020 | 12:35 PM IST buyBuy
Oil And Natural Gas Corporation Ltd. 3 Sep, 2020 | 11:57 AM IST buyBuy


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