Monday 7 September 2020

D-Street investors may return to largecaps now | FPIs dump record India bonds | Voda funding cloud over Grasim

MORNING NEWSLETTER

8 Sep, 2020 | 08:48 AM IST


Good Morning!

Recent market behaviour has shaken up confidence of many seasoned investors and made them doubt if old school ways of value and growth investing have stopped working. But Sanjay Dutt, a Dalal Street veteran, remains rooted to the basics. "Value will work. These are time-tested metrics and will play out. This stands out if you go back and see the history of Indian market. During the midcap boom of CY2017 and the first quarter of FY18, we all said midcap is the new manna from heaven. Then, those stocks got hammered out of shape, and people returned to the RILs of Dalal Street to make money," he reminds you.

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MARKET CUES: Where do we stand >>>

    Nifty futures on the Singapore Exchange traded 47 points higher at 7 am (IST) this morning, signaling a positive start for Dalal Street.

    On Monday, Nifty50 closed almost where it opened, forming a Dragonfly Doji candle on the daily chart. Analysts said the index may stay rangebound with a positive bias in the coming sessions.

    Asian stocks followed their European peers higher on Tuesday, shrugging off concerns about the selloff in US technology shares and fresh Sino-American tensions. Shares rose in Australia, South Korea and Hong Kong, with a more modest advance seen in Japan. Chinese stocks saw muted gains.

    Wall Street was shut on Monday for Labor Day. However, Nasdaq futures resumed declines with valuation angst lingering. US technology shares, which have posted stratospheric gains through the depths of the pandemic, showed signs of buckling amid reports that huge options bets were fanning their gains.

    Oil extended its retreat below $40 a barrel as a price cut by Saudi Arabia signaled fuel consumption is wavering in key markets. WTI crude fell 1.6% to $39.14 a barrel.

    The rupee depreciated 21 paise to 73.35 against the US dollar on Monday as strengthening US currency and muted domestic equities weighed on the local currency.

    The dollar was steady, but the British pound slipped 0.1% on concern the UK is inching closer to a no-deal Brexit. The yen was little changed, but the euro fell 0.1%.

    Gold prices snapped a three-day losing streak on Monday and edged higher. On MCX, October gold futures rose 0.2 per cent to Rs 50,792 per 10 gram while silver futures jumped 1% to Rs 67,982 a kg. In the international market, the yellow metal fell 0.3% to $1,927.29 an ounce.

LOOK WHO'S

Quality largecaps poised for rebound?… Are some of the quality large-cap stocks that have underperformed in recent months poised for a rebound? Technical indicators show after drifting lower, stocks such as Infosys, TCS, HUL, Nestle, Dabur, HDFC, Bharti Airtel and HDFC Life, among others, could have reached their lows as some investors are looking to return to these blue chips with the rally in the broader market losing steam. Read More

IPO frenzy lifts grey market premium… The retail stock market frenzy is now sweeping the shores of the IPO market. The public issue of Bengaluru-based digital IT services provider Happiest Minds Technologies was fully subscribed in two hours on the first day itself and the grey market premium of its shares jumped from Rs 110 apiece on Friday to Rs 120 on Monday over the IPO price band of Rs 165-166 per share. Route Mobile, the cloud communication service provider, which is also launching its IPO on Wednesday, commands a grey market premium of 63%, or Rs 220 apiece, over the proposed issue price of Rs 345-350 per share. Read More

Kamath panel allows loan rejig in 26 sectors… The KV Kamath committee — tasked by RBI to prepare broad parameters for restructuring loans of Covid-hit companies — has selected 26 sectors for such recast and recommended categorising accounts into mild, moderate and severe to ensure quick turnaround. The 26 sectors include aviation, real estate, automobiles, consumer durables, construction, roads, wholesale trading, textiles and tourism. Read More

FPIs may get to buy bad loans directly… Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) may soon be able to directly acquire bad loans being sold by banks and other lenders. Sebi is planning to include stressed assets in investments permitted for FPIs, said two people with knowledge of the matter. The move could be a shot in the arm for the stressed assets market in India as FPIs are known for their big-ticket purchases, experts said. Read More

Economic recovery gathering pace… Economic recovery in India gathered pace in the first week of September, according to a business resumption index compiled by Japanese investment bank Nomura, as retail and recreation showed signs of a pickup. The Nomura India Business Resumption Index (NIBRI), a weekly tracker of the pace of normalisation of economic activity, went up to 77.4 for the week ended September 6, touching another post-lockdown high. The index reading at the end of August was 75.7. Read More

AND WHO'S

FPIs busy dumping Indian bonds… Overseas portfolio investors have sold a record $15 billion of Indian bonds this year, reflecting their risk aversion for emerging-market debt and concerns over the country's fiscal health. The highest-ever net outflows could well hurt demand for Indian debt securities, sending yields in a direction opposite to that of policy interest rates, now at record lows. If Indian debt continues to lose its allure, sovereign and corporate funding costs could trend higher at a time when New Delhi and states are borrowing more in the aftermath of the pandemic-induced disruptions. Read More

Voda fund raising may hit Grasim valuation… Morgan Stanley said if Grasim Industries contributes more capital to its group telecom venture Vodafone Idea, it could lead to the cement major's holding company discount widening. Grasim owns 11.55% stake in Vodafone Idea and has sizeable holdings in most Aditya Birla Group companies. Vodafone Idea on Friday approved raising up to Rs 25,000 crore through equity and debt. The move is expected to reduce promoters' stake in the telecom operator. Vodafone owns 53.57% and the Aditya Birla Group holds 18.48% stake in the company. Read More

E D arrests Kochhar husband… The Enforcement Directorate (ED) on Monday arrested Deepak Kochhar in a money-laundering case registered more than a year and a half ago against the businessman and his wife, former ICICI Bank chief executive Chanda Kochhar. The agency arrested him around 8.30 pm after a round of questioning that started in the afternoon, people in the know said. Read More

Meanwhile...
StanChart fined in TMB case… A spate of sharp, complex transactions dating back to 2007, involving a bid by certain offshore entities to acquire Tamilnad Mercantile Bank have come back to haunt the British bank Standard Chartered. Enforcement Directorate in Chennai, where TMB is headquartered, has imposed a penalty of Rs 100 crore on Standard Chartered Bank for alleged violation of regulations under the Foreign Exchange Management Act. Read More
KEY INDICES
16,780  -145.95
14,573  -29.49
22,945  -66.45
18,177 + 102.85
Price Movers|Volume Movers|Near 52 Week High|Near 52 Week Low

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Stocks to Watch >>>

The Delhi High Court has ordered SpiceJet to deposit Rs 243.94 crore as interest payments on warrants and nonconvertible redeemable cumulative preference shares that were agreed but not issued to the budget airline's former owner, media baron Kalanithi Maran's KAL Airways.

Vodafone Idea CEO Ravinder Takkar said the company has a "business plan" to arrest market share losses and expects continued support from promoters as it looks to turn around operations and take on Reliance Jio Infocomm and Bharti Airtel.

Mahindra Finance's insurance arm is set to enter the business of online insurance broking giving digital services to the customers of its insurance brokerage subsidiary, Mahindra Insurance Brokers, through a soon-to-be launched portal called PayBima.

Diversified conglomerate ITC is adopting a multi-pronged strategy of restructuring that includes reduction of the number of 'owned' hotel properties to 40% or even less from the current level of 50%, considering it's high capital-intensive business.

Harley Davidson, which is in the process of scaling down its India operations and local factory may re-orient the strategy and join hands with Hero Moto to grow business in this market

The government is planning to sell 15% stake in defence manufacturer Bharat Dynamics through an offer for sale (OFS) on September 8 and 9.

UnQuote: VALUE BETS, ANYONE?
Sasta, sundar, tikaoo stocks always work, a little caution helps
Sanjay Dutt, Director, Quantum Securities

The DAY PLANNER

    Japan Household Spending YoY JUL (05.00 am)
    Japan GDP Growth Rate QoQ Final Q2 (05.20 am)
    Japan Current Account JUL (05:20 AM)
    Japan Bank Lending YoY AUG (05.20 am)
    France Balance of Trade JUL (12.15 pm)
    Euro Area GDP Growth Rate QoQ 3rd Est Q2 (02.30 pm)
    Euro Area Employment Change QoQ Final Q2 (02.30 pm)

OUTLOOK

Fund raising shows NBFCs to do better
    Mahantesh Sabarad of SBICap Securities says the banking sector will face stress and there will be elevated NPA levels, but then the fact remains that the government as well as RBI are two big daddies behind the financial sector and they have been providing all the liquidity support that they require as well as all the procedural and regulatory forbearance that is needed is being given to them. "These forbearance activities as well as the support that is being given by the RBI plus the government combined will take the financial sector higher. When you have large NBFCs raising capital buffers, I do not see why the sector should not do well going forward," he says. Read More

P/E expansion in super-growth cycle normal
    Pankaj Murarka of Renaissance Investment Managers says whenever a sector goes through a super-cycle of growth, there tends to be see significant expansion of multiples. "Go back to 1999-2000 when the IT sector was going through a phenomenal J-curve kind of growth where those companies were growing at 70-80 P/E. All the IT services companies were B2B and continue to remain B2B, and they were trading at 50-60-70 PE anyway higher at times. While these are B2B businesses, due to the confluence of events that have happened, for the last few years, some of the manufacturing is gradually shifting to India. So, if the chemicals sector can hold on to its growth potential, which looks pretty likely in the medium to long term, valuations will remain rich and they might even expand further," says he. Read More

Timewise market correction is good
    Ashutosh Bhargava of Nippon India Mutual Fund says some kind of consolidation is not only expected to some extent but it is actually healthy too. "The way we have seen the runup in Nasdaq and even in some pockets in our market, valuations have gone through the roof and people started talking about bubble and all that. If the market consolidates more in terms of time and less in terms of price, we should welcome it, because we do not want a situation where the market can run up very sharply and then the investors have to face a prolonged period of disappointment," says he. Read More

STOCKS RECOMMENDATIONS
Coal India Ltd. 7 Sep, 2020 | 10:45 AM IST buyBuy
Indian Oil Corporation Ltd. 7 Sep, 2020 | 11:47 AM IST buyAdd


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