Monday, 14 September 2020

Earnings yield signals midcap rally | Sub-3.5% RBI rate may be bad for economy | Covid blow less on top realty firms

MORNING NEWSLETTER

15 Sep, 2020 | 09:01 AM IST


Good Morning!

Sebi's move to redefine the investment rules for multicap funds not only protects the nomenclature of such funds and checks misnaming, it also raises the possibility of giving birth to a new category of funds, flexi schemes, which will be a gamechanger. Besides, as market veteran Madhusudan Kela points out, the move may actually make a whole lot of entrepreneurs running unlisted companies realise that they can get true value for their assets and may be drawn to get listed. The seasoned investor also vouches that there are a lot of mid-sized companies that have a tremendous value and the potential to create a lot of wealth. That promises a whole lot of prospects for investors.

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MARKET CUES: Where do we stand >>>

    Nifty futures on the Singapore Exchange traded 42 points higher at 7 am (IST) this morning, signalling a positive start ahead for Dalal Street.

    On Monday, Nifty saw selling pressure around recent swing high of 11,584 and gave up all the gains to end up below the 11,450 level. It engulfed Friday's bullish candle to form a Bearish Engulfing Candle on the daily chart, signalling weakness ahead.

    Asian stocks drifted Tuesday as investors turned their attention to a Fed meeting for clues on monetary policy. Japan's Topix fell 1%, Australia's S&P/ASX 200 Index was little changed as was South Korea's Kospi and Hong Kong's Hang Seng. Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.4%.

    US stocks ended sharply higher on Monday as signs of progress in developing a Covid-19 vaccine and a spurt of multibillion-dollar deals lifted investor optimism. The Dow rose 327 points, or 1.18%, to 27,993, while the S&P500 gained 42.57 points, or 1.27%, and the Nasdaq 203 points, or 1.87%.

    Oil prices inched lower on Tuesday as a bleaker outlook for global fuel demand prompted fresh selling. Brent fell 3 cents, or 0.1%, to $39.58 a barrel while WTI crude futures slipped 2 cents, or 0.1%, to $37.24.

    The rupee pared some of its early gains and settled 5 paise higher at 73.48 against the US dollar on Monday tracking muted domestic equities

    The dollar traded flat. The yen appreciating 0.4 per cetn, while the offshore yuan rose 0.2%to hit its highest level against the greenback in 2020. The euro was at $1.1870. The British pound slipped 0.2%.

    Gold prices rose to Rs 54,540 per 10 gm, while silver trended at Rs 68,300 a kg. On MCX, October gold futures climbed 0.72 per cent to Rs 51,687 per 10 gm, while silver December futures were at Rs 68,965 a kg. In Delhi, the price of 22-carat gold remained at Rs 50,000 per 10 gm. In global markets, the yellow metal was little changed at $1,958.25 an ounce.

LOOK WHO'S

Smallcaps, midcaps poised for rally… Midcap and smallcap stocks may be poised for a rally if their current earnings yield — a measure of a stock's expected returns — is to go by. An analysis showed the trailing earnings yield of 200 stocks of the NSE-500 index is more than 5%. "In the past, we have seen that earnings yield looks higher at the early recovery phase. In 2013, when earnings yield was above 4%, we have seen a big rally in midcaps and smallcaps during 2013-2017," said Sanjeev Hota, head of research at Sharekhan. Read More

Economic activity picking up… Economic activity accelerated further in the week ended September 13, returning almost to pre-lockdown levels, a private tracker released on Monday showed. The Nomura India Business Resumption Index, which monitors economic activity normalisation, rose to 81.6 from 79 in the week ended September 6. Separately, S&P Global Ratings said India's economy will likely contract 9% in FY21 from a previous estimate of -5%. Still, that was less steep than cuts forecast by its peers following the June quarter's 23.9% contraction. Read More

Govt lines up Rs 20,000 cr infusion in PSBs… The Centre will infuse Rs 20,000 crore in PSU banks through bonds in FY21 and spend an additional ₹1.67 lakh crore on Covid relief measures announced earlier. Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Monday sought Parliament's nod for gross additional expenditure of ₹2.36 lakh crore, presenting the first batch of supplementary demands for FY21. Read More

Top realty firms consolidating market… June quarter data on sales volumes and financials of the real estate sector show that the pandemic has intensified consolidation in favour of listed large players. The slump in demand and lack of labour for construction activities led to a sharp decline in volumes and revenues of realty companies. Some of the large listed entities, however, reported lower fall than the overall industry. Read More

AND WHO'S

Bearish bets rising in Nifty… Traders raised bearish bets by selling more weekly Nifty call options, with the market failing to hold above the key technical level of 11,561.5. The index could immediately test the supports of 11,330 and 11,260. A breach of these levels could take the Nifty to 11,185.15. The 128.85-point correction in the Nifty from the day's high to 11,440.05 was marked by aggressive call writing on September 17 expiry Nifty options. The negative bias is underscored by the open interest put call ratio falling to 0.88 Monday from 1.10 Friday. Read More

Wealth planners advise avoiding multicap funds… Financial advisers are advising investors to avoid fresh investments in multi-cap schemes — a mutual fund product that bets on a mix of blue-chips, mid- and small-cap stocks after Sebi's new rules for such schemes triggered uncertainty over the product's future. In the absence of clarity on which multi-cap funds will continue being in the category and how the new norms would impact returns, investment advisors are recommending clients to consider other equity categories such as large- and mid-cap funds or focussed funds. Read More

Sub-3.5% RBI rate bad for economy... Policy rates cannot dip below a threshold, beyond which a rate cut could be counter-productive and lead to an economic contraction rather than stimulating it, according to a research report by SBI economists. They further said that lowering policy rates below 3.5% could be counterproductive and recommended an activist fiscal policy going forward. Read More

Diwali battle looms in grocery space… This Diwali, India's top ecommerce companies will start their market share battle with dal/chawal. Not just BigBasket and Grofers but Amazon and Flipkart, too, will kick off their festive period efforts with big sales events in the grocery space, according to brands and marketplaces ET spoke to. Amazon and Flipkart's big grocery push is triggered by Reliance JioMart's entry, market observers said. Read More

Meanwhile...
Mistry claims rights to pledge Tata shares…. The SP Group has argued in the Supreme Court that it is well within its rights to pledge shares of Tata Sons. The Articles of Association of Tata Sons do not restrict the creation of an encumbrance but only regulate the transfer of ownership of the shares to existing or new members, it said. Read More
KEY INDICES
17,206 + 440.7
15,145 + 586.96
22,101  -378.7
19,505 + 871.85
Price Movers|Volume Movers|Near 52 Week High|Near 52 Week Low

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Stocks to Watch >>>

SBI is in the process of raising up to Rs 7,000 crore more via tier-II bonds and is currently discussing the proposal with potential investors on the pricing part.

Aditya Birla Group's flagship company Grasim Industries is going ahead with its Rs 3,523 crore viscose fibre business brownfield expansion in Gujarat, albeit with revised timelines, after having attained 75% capacity utilisation levels in the June quarter.

More staff are expected to transition into leadership roles at Cognizant in the years ahead, its chief executive Brian Humphries said, a move that will cut down on hiring outside professionals.

Auto component maker Motherson Sumi is looking to get global partners to set shop in India in line with the government's move to attract fresh capital and pitching India as an alternative for companies moving out of China.

Ashok Leyland on Monday expanded into a resilient light commercial vehicle market with the new generation Phoenix platform, aiming to break into top 10 global commercial vehicle markets.

Amtek Auto's lenders moved Supreme Court claiming contempt of court by Deccan Value Investors after the latter cited 'force majeure' as a reason to reconsider its bid for the auto parts maker that is undergoing insolvency proceedings.

UnQuote: BEYOND INDEX
Time for smallcaps & midcaps to rise
Sunil Subramaniam, Sundaram Mutual

The DAY PLANNER

    Australia RBA Meeting Minutes (07:00 am)
    Australia House Price Index YoY Q2 (07.00 am)
    China Industrial Production YoY AUG (07:30 am)
    China Unemployment Rate AUG (07.30 am)
    UK Employment Change JUN (11:30 am)
    UK Unemployment Rate JUL (11:30 am)
    Euro Area ZEW Economic Sentiment Index SEP (02:30 pm)
    India Balance of Trade AUG (06:45 pm)
    US Industrial Production MoM AUG (06:45 pm)

OUTLOOK

Stay caution on financials
    Rupesh Patel of Tata Mutual Fund says in the very near term, financials are in a situation where credit growth continues to remain weak. "At least the top three, four banks are seeing good flow of deposits to them. This can put some pressure on net interest margins in the near term. In the near term, again there are concerns around NPAs since the moratorium is over. RBI has allowed one-time restructuring for the accounts. We may see some spike in NPA and restructured accounts," says he. Read More

HCL Tech mid-term guidance promising
    Urmil Shah of IDBI Capital says HCL Tech was one of the few companies that had given the guidance at the end of Q1. "It was not expected that immediately in the second quarter, there would be an improvement in the business momentum versus what they had guided for. So to that extent, I believe there is a positive surprise both on the revenue growth point of view because we had factored 2.3% QoQ growth for the second quarter as well as EBIT margin upwards of 20.5%," says he. Read More

Smallcaps can't rise on Sebi rule alone
    Noted investor and strategist Safir Anand one cannot be looking at smallcaps as a whole basket and say that everything in smallcaps or everything in midcaps has to rally. "While Sebi's classification of multicap funds may have a sentimental boost to whatever extent, one has to consider the reality of the economy, the reality of the liquidity that some of these stocks come with, the reality of business model and one also has to see whether it is getting disrupted or losing out to a new migration that is happening," says he. Read More

STOCKS RECOMMENDATIONS
Varun Beverages Ltd. 14 Sep, 2020 | 01:04 PM IST SellHold
HDFC Bank Ltd. 14 Sep, 2020 | 11:38 AM IST buyBuy


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