Tuesday 8 September 2020

Bharat Dynamics OFS may be good deal | Should you look at Route Mobile IPO? | Sebi rejects NSE directors

MORNING NEWSLETTER

9 Sep, 2020 | 08:38 AM IST


Good Morning!

Crowded trades do not make money in financial markets. In the fixed income market, short-term AAA corporate bonds are now such a trade, as investors have become overweight on that space. Even in the mutual fund industry, a lot of flows have come into that space. And market veteran R Sivakumar puts it, it's about time investors started looking outside of that. "We see a lot of value in long duration securities. We also see value in non-AAA credit space, which has only seen outflows in last six months," says he. There is a lot of value at the longer end of the curve because the short end has reacted a lot to the extraordinary monetary policies in response to the Covid-19 crisis. The opportunity is there.

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MARKET CUES: Where do we stand >>>

    Nifty futures on the Singapore Exchange traded 30 points lower at 7 am (IST), signaling a weak start for Dalal Street.

    On Tuesday, Nifty50 failed to capitalise on intraday gains, as it faced selling pressure near the 11,450 level. It formed a small bearish candle and analysts said the 11,450 level may pose immediate hurdle for the index

    Asian stocks fell with US and European equity futures amid worries that a Covid-19 vaccine could be delayed. Japan's Topix index declined 1.4%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng fell 1.3%, Shanghai Composite 1%, South Korea's Kospi 1% and Australia's S&P/ASX 200 retreated 2.3%.

    Wall Street sank for the third consecutive session, led by declines in heavyweight technology stocks. Dow fell 632 points, or 2.25 per cent, while S&P500 lost 95 points, or 2.78 per cent, and the Nasdaq 465 points, or 4.11 per cent.

    Oil steadied after its biggest one-day loss in more than two months on worsening US-China relations and a retreat in global stocks. WTI crude retreated 0.7% to $36.52 a barrel.

    The rupee depreciated by 25 paise to settle at more than one-week low of 73.60 against the US dollar on Tuesday amid growth concerns and fresh border tensions between India and China.

    The dollar extended gains while the yen rose 0.1%. The euro was down 0.1% and the offshore yuan traded at 6.8533 to the greenback.

    Gold and silver prices fell on Tuesday in Indian markets, tracking declines in global rates. On MCX, gold futures fell 0.5% to Rs 50,803 per 10 gm and silver futures 0.6% to Rs 67,850 a kg. In international market, gold slipped 0.3 per cent to $1,925.25 an ounce

LOOK WHO'S

RIL closer to value unlocking in Q2C… RIL has moved a step closer to its goal of value unlocking its oil-to-chemicals business with the release of a detailed plan to hive off the business into a separate entity, Reliance O2C. The move may help the Mukesh Ambani-led conglomerate attract global investments in the business, after receiving big-ticket investment in its digital arm Jio. Read More

Time-bound loan recast to avert misuse… RBI's loan restructuring plan would be a success this time as it comes with a specific time frame and there is very little scope for misuse by either corporates or banks, said KV Kamath. "The way RBI has crafted the boundary conditions, it's very difficult to misuse it," said Kamath, who headed the panel formed by the central bank to frame rules for loan restructuring. "It is in everybody's interest — whether it's the lending institution or the borrower — to get back to health. So, if that objective is kept in mind, I don't think there will be any misuse." Read More

Bharat Dynamics OFS may be good deal…. Retail investors can subscribe to the OFS of Bharat Dynamics on Wednesday for a possible return of 20% in one year as the government is offering a Rs 20 per share discount over the cut-off price, market experts and advisors said. Based on a burgeoning orderbook which is expected to be at Rs 22,500 crore in FY22, analysts estimate an EPS of Rs 24.9 for the year. At a PE multiple of 16, the stock is valued at Rs 400 per share, a 20% upside from the OFS level. Read More

Price dynamics favours Nalco… With aluminium prices once again on the rise after a declining trend over the past two years, investors may prefer state-owned Nalco given its pure-play aluminium focus compared with the more diversified operations of its peers. Nalco's cheaper valuation will be another favourable factor. Aluminium price on the London Metal Exchange has climbed up by 25% from the April lows to nearly $1,800 per tonne. Read More

AND WHO'S

Stiff scrutiny likely for loan recast… Lenders will likely put loan-restructuring requests from companies in the traditionally capital-intensive and Covid-battered sectors, such as power, property, hotels, tourism and aviation, through greater scrutiny after the KV Kamath committee set stiff future financial milestones for the affected businesses being given the facility. So, bankers are likely to assess the ability of their borrowers to meet the future capital-structure milestones while taking a call on restructuring requests. Theoretically, the scrutiny will be rather intensive for overleveraged firms. Read More

India stares at sharp contraction…. Goldman Sachs forecast a 14.8% contraction in India's economy in FY21, possibly the deepest cut estimated thus far and steeper than the 10.5% fall estimated by Fitch Ratings. India Ratings said it expects an 11.8% contraction against shrinkage of 5.3% forecast earlier, following a deeper-than-expected 23.9% decline in June quarter GDP. All three estimates were issued on Tuesday. Goldman Sachs had earlier forecast an 11.8% contraction, while Fitch had forecast a 5% fall in its June estimates. Read More

Route Mobile IPO... The firm plans to raise up to Rs 240 crore by issuing fresh equity and upto Rs 360 crore through an offer for sale by promoters. After the IPO, the promoter group stake will fall to around 66% from 96%. While the company has shown a rapid growth over the past three years, the future performance will depend upon the company's ability to stay ahead in ever changing technological landscape amid tough competition. This and a high client concentration makes the IPO more suitable for investors with higher risk appetite who want an exposure to the fast growing digital communications sector. Read More

Sebi rejects NSE directors... The Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) has rejected the reappointment of two long-time shareholder directors on the board of the National Stock Exchange (NSE), said people privy to the development. Sebi has told NSE that it should not nominate Abhay Havaldar, former director of General Atlantic, and Prakash Parthasarathy, former chief investment officer of Premji Invest, on the exchange's board for another term. Read More

Shots fired on China LAC after 45 tears… Shots were fired for the first time in 45 years on the LAC as tensions rose when Chinese troops tried to approach a newly established forward position of the Indian Army at Mukhpari heights in the Chushul sub-sector. Army officials told ET that troops from PLA fired a few rounds in the air on Monday evening in an attempt to intimidate Indian soldiers. The officials added that the Indian Army exercised restraint in the face of grave provocation. Read More

Meanwhile...
Kochhar home 'proceeds of crime'… The CCI Chambers residence of sformer ICICI Bank CEO Chanda Kochhar and her businessman husband Deepak Kochhar was bought at a "nominal consideration" and is being treated as "proceeds of crime", the Enforcement Directorate told a PMLA court on Tuesday. The agency was seeking the custody of Deepak Kochhar, who was arrested on Monday. Read More
KEY INDICES
16,540  -240.35
14,438  -135.95
22,744  -200.65
18,396 + 218.95
Price Movers|Volume Movers|Near 52 Week High|Near 52 Week Low

For in-depth stock analysis, live market updates & more, download ET Markets App

Stocks to Watch >>>

Kotak Institutional Equities has upgraded low-cost carrier IndiGo's parent company InterGlobe Aviation to 'buy' from 'sell' as it expects pressures on costs and yields to recede for the airline sector beyond a tough FY21.

The government on Tuesday allowed state-run transmission utility PowerGrid to monetise projects won through tariff-based bidding through the InvIT route, charting a new course for disinvestment amid the slowdown.

Asset quality at India's most valuable lender HDFC Bank is unlikely to deteriorate even after the disruptions caused by Covid-19, CLSA said Tuesday, citing the management's latest assessment of potential bad loans.

Vodafone Idea's ability to hold on to its subscribers could be compromised by its weak financials despite the company's latest proposal to raise funds, says Fitch.

UnQuote: MAPPING REBOUND
I would be a bit wary of labelling any recovery as U or V now
KV Kamath, Former Chairman, NDB

The DAY PLANNER

    Australia Home Loans MoM JUL (07:00 am)
    China Inflation Rate YoY AUG (07:00 am)
    China PPI YoY AUG (07:00 am)
    Canada Housing Starts AUG (5.45 pm)
    US Redbook YoY 05/SEP (06:25 pm)
    BoC Interest Rate Decision (07:30 pm)

OUTLOOK

Equity not first stop for senior citizens
    Dhirendra Kumar of Value Research says if you are a senior citizen, the first step is to go for that senior citizen's scheme. "It gets you the highest return relatively with the highest safety. You can invest a maximum of Rs 15 lakh there and follow it up with the post office MIP. There also, there is a limit. And then work towards optimising your returns because the need for guaranteed income in your retirement to drive income from your investment is paramount. That is also the stage when you panic a little and so equity cannot be the first stop," says he. Read More

Bad asset overhang over financials
    Manishi Raychaudhuri of BNP Paribas says financials played catch up to some extent after the late March bottom. "They did recover close to 30% to 40%, in some cases even higher. But now the investors' attention is focused on the post moratorium scenario. At the end of August, the moratoriums expired. However, different kind of borrowers reacted differently to this new scenario. These are various issues that the investors are currently struggling with," says he. Read More

Stay in largecap pharma
    Girish Pai of Nirmal Bang says his house was early on pharma and have been bullish on the space for a fairly long period of time. "We were a bit too early in terms of our bullish call on the stocks. The runup has been fairly recent and fairly steep. At these levels, it is slightly uncomfortable across the board. In the largecap space we like Sun Pharma. Right now the stock has not run up as much as, say, an Aurobindo or Dr Reddy's. We are more interested in the branded opportunity," says he. Read More

STOCKS RECOMMENDATIONS
CESC Ltd. 8 Sep, 2020 | 12:17 PM IST buyBuy
Bosch Ltd. 8 Sep, 2020 | 02:02 PM IST SellNeutral


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