The stocks rally going on in most parts of the world since March lows, totally detached from economic realities, might hit a wall this month, say analysts. For one, June quarter earnings will give a first-hand reality check of Covid disruption from the ground. While analysts have by and large written off the three-month period, markets drunk on 'hopium', as one put it, will still react when they see the deeper wounds. In the US, mother of all markets, some stimulus and support programs are expiring this month. While latest job data raises doubt if the Fed and the government will still be pumping in money at the same pace, some feel the economy may be showing early signs of its inability to absorb more money.
MARKET CUES: Where do we stand >>>  | Nifty futures on Singapore Exchange traded 88 points higher at 7 am (IST) signalling a positive start ahead for Dalal Street |
| Nifty50 on Friday formed an indecisive candle on the daily chart, but a strong bullish candle on the weekly chart. India VIX fell 2.80 per cent from 26.51 to 25.76 levels, suggesting an overall bullish stance |
| Asian stocks rose as investors weighed expectations for ongoing policy support against increasing global coronavirus cases. Shares advanced in Japan, though volumes were down about 25% compared with the average over the past month. Equities in Hong Kong, China and South Korea were also higher. |
| US futures rose this morning with markets due to reopen after a holiday. Wall Street bourses were shut on Friday for Independent Day and, hence, there will be no overnight cues for Nifty to deal with. |
| The rupee appreciated 38 paise to settle at 74.66 against the US dollar on Friday, tracking weakness in the greenback and gains in the domestic equity market amid optimism over potential Covid-19 vaccine. |
| The dollar held steady against most currencies on Monday as investors awaited data expected to show the US services sector stopped contracting. The euro moved in a narrow range as did the sterling. Against the Swiss franc, the dollar was quoted at 0.9455. |
| Oil prices were mixed in early trade with Brent crude futures up 15 cents at $42.95 a barrel, while US crude eased 25 cents to $40.40. |
| LOOK WHO'S |  |
e-way bills back at pre-Covid levels… More than 42.7 million e-way bills were generated in June with a total value of Rs 12.4 lakh crore, higher than the March numbers of over 40 million bills that clocked value of Rs 11.43 lakh crore, indicating that the movement of goods was getting close to the pre-lockdown levels. The electronic way bil is a document that needs to be generated by registered GST taxpayers for inter-state movement of goods if the value of the consignment is more than Rs 50,000. It is one of the prominent indicators of economic activity.
Read More India may see trade surplus in June… India may register its first monthly trade surplus in over 18 years in June as the pace of contraction of exports is estimated to have slowed down to around 12%, while imports are seen to have fallen almost 49% during the month. Initial estimates for June, available with the commerce department, show a trade surplus of around $786 million, with imports pegged at $21.1 billion and exports at $21.9 billion. The last time India had a positive balance on the trade account was in January 2002 when it had a surplus of $10 million with exports of $4.3 billion.
Read More Jio inflows help support rupee… About $15 billion of overseas funds raised by Jio Platforms are due to enter the Indian financial system in just two weeks, reflecting renewed global confidence in the country and helping add sheen to the rupee that last week logged its biggest gains this year. Jio Platforms, the communications platform of Reliance Industries, has raised more than Rs 1.17 lakh crore over 11 rounds in just two and a half months.
Read More Retail auto sales signal recovery… Retail sales of vehicles far outnumbered dispatches from factories to dealerships last month, suggesting a recovery in the market while also highlighting the supply constraints faced by manufacturers. Industry data suggests retail sales of passenger vehicles at 170,000 units in June, about 50,000 more than the estimated 116,000 cars and UVs that left factory gates. Some 1.2 million two-wheelers were delivered to customers in the past month against 1 million dispatches.
Read More | AND WHO'S |  |
Amazon hurdle in Future deal… Amid talk of a possible Reliance Retail-Future Group deal, Amazon's stake in a Kishore Biyani holding company has emerged as an issue that needs to be resolved, said people familiar with the development. Reliance Retail and Amazon are competitors. Amazon owns around 3.5% in Future Retail Ltd (FRL), the flagship Future Group company that Reliance Retail is said to be eyeing. Also, the US ecommerce giant has the first right to buy Biyani's entire holding in this company in three to 10 years from November 2019.
Read More Rift among JPA promoters comes to fore… Sunny Gaur, son of Jaiprakash Associates (JAL) founder and part of the promoter group, has resigned as a director of the beleaguered company to venture out on his own, amid suggestions of differences over the way the group has collapsed with his brother, Manoj Gaur, at the helm. Samir Gaur, Sunny and Manoj Gaur's third brother, had also left the family empire a few years ago. Between them, the promoters hold close to 39% of JAL with the shareholding split between 62 entities, including 52 individuals.
Read More Delhi-NCR property registrations down… Property registrations in Delhi-NCR dipped by 68% on-year in May and June amid the lockdown. In April, a few properties were registered in Noida and Ghaziabad but none in Delhi, Gurgaon and Faridabad. More property sales were recorded in May, when lockdown measures were eased, but total number of registrations in Delhi-NCR was down 85% on-year. In Ghaziabad, registrations were down by 93%. Noida, which holds most unsold inventory in NCR, was worst-affected, with 86% drop in number of property registrations in May-June.
Read More Franklin bleeds as MF assets dip in Q1… The average assets under management of Franklin Templeton Mutual Fund declined sharply by 31.4% in the April-June quarter, even as the average AUM of the entire mutual fund industry declined by 8.9% during this period, Amfi data showed. The average AUM of the industry declined from Rs 27,03,675 crore during the January-March quarter to Rs 24,62,769 crore. Franklin Templeton was the worst hit, accounting for over 15 per cent of this Rs 2.4 lakh crore decline.
Read More Meanwhile... Steep drop in India PE deals… Private equity investments in India have seen a steep drop in the first six months of 2020, as the country's shrinking economy, which has been further buffeted by the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic, has seen transactions drop by as much as 40%. PE investments in the first half of 2020 have come in at about $13 billion, according to data collated by Bain & Co. This, however, does not include the $15.5 billion raised by Jio Platforms, the digital arm of Mukesh Ambaniled Reliance Industries.
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