Sunday, 19 July 2020

Sebi margin money rule from Aug 1 | Infy's Vanguard deal its biggest ever | Auto firms dole out pay hikes

MORNING NEWSLETTER

20 Jul, 2020 | 08:54 AM IST


Good Morning!

Benchmark Sensex has risen 6 per cent on a month-to-date basis in July to pile on its 30 per cent gain from March 24 to June 30. That would be stale news unless you take into account the fact that this gain happened when both FPIs and DIIs offloaded shares worth over Rs 8,000 crore during this period. Then, you begin to ask: whose money is driving stocks higher? Largely, retail. And one Dalal Street veteran says it is possible that the retail money may actually be giving profitable exits to the big fish! His advice: do exactly what the big fish is doing: Raise cash and sit on it! ( Listen in)

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MARKET CUES: Where do we stand >>>
    Nifty futures on the Singapore Exchange traded 40 points lower at 7 am (IST) this morning, in signs of weakness on Dalal Street.

    Nifty50 on Friday topped the 10,900 mark on a closing basis and formed a bullish candle on the daily chart. Analysts said while there are reasons for optimism, the bulls have to be mindful of the 'Hanging Man' visible on the weekly chart.

    Asian shares began warily on Monday as investors eyed efforts to stitch together more fiscal stimulus in the euro zone and US. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was flat at 541.49; Australian shares fell 0.3% and South Korea's KOSPI just a shade higher. Japan's Nikkei was up 0.1%.

    Last week, European, US and other equity markets notched third weekly gain in a row, although the pace of the rally has slowed. The Dow fell 0.23% on Friday, the S&P 500 gained 0.29% and the Nasdaq Composite added 0.28%.

    The rupee appreciated 16 paise to close at 75.02 against the US dollar on Friday, tracking positive domestic equities and a weakening American currency.

    The euro opened 0.2% lower in early Asian trade as investor focus is squarely on a European Union Summit where leaders are haggling over a plan to revive economies. The dollar was a shade higher on the Japanese yen at. The sterling was mostly flat. The Australian dollar ticked up 0.1%. That left the dollar index barely changed

    Oil prices dipped on Monday, weighed down by the prospect that a rise in the pace of coronavirus infections could derail a recovery in fuel demand. Brent crude was down 10 cents, or 0.2%, at $43.04 a barrel , while WTI crude was off 6 cents, or 0.2%, at $40.53

    Gold prices rose further to Rs 48,948 per 10 gm, while silver prices edged marginally lower to Rs 51,740 per kg. On MCX, gold prices rose 0.42% to Rs 48,980 on Friday after hitting record high of Rs 49,348 last week. Silver futures climbed 0.55% to Rs 52,900. In global markets, spot gold was flat at $1,808.5 an ounce on Monday.

LOOK WHO'S

Auto firms dole out pay hikes… Carmakers didn't reduce salaries or sack employees when the lockdown hit them and as demand is revving up post-lockdown, they are handing out increments and promotions. Toyota Kirloskar has announced pay hikes for non-unionised workers. Hyundai Motor India has raised wages for factory workers and will soon do the same for executives. Maruti Suzuki is likely to release bonus and incentives in next two months. MG Motor is expected to announce pay hikes soon. Honda, Toyota and Renault have given 4-14% pay hikes. Read More

Infy's Vanguard deal worth $1.5 billion… The multi-year deal Infosys won from US investment firm Vanguard is worth $1.5 billion, say sources close to the development. This will perhaps make it the biggest deal Infosys has ever signed. Previously, some believed it was slightly under a billion dollars. The sources also say the scope of the work could be extended to 10 years, with the contract value rising to over $2 billion. Read More

100% FDI likely in completed realty projects …India is reviewing its FDI policy for the real estate sector to see if 100% overseas investment can be allowed in completed projects. If implemented, this will allow real estate companies to monetise completed projects amid the ongoing liquidity crisis aggravated by the Covid-19 pandemic, thus helping to revive an economically critical sector. Read More

1% discount on car prices on scrappage… Automobile companies are ready to offer up to 1% of vehicle prices as discount or incentive if customers scrap old vehicles and buy new ones. The government is yet to take a final call on whether it would also give any incentive to encourage phasing out of old vehicles. Sources said the government had sought a commitment from the automobile companies about their incentive to such buyers after it revived intense consultations on the proposed policy. Read More

AND WHO'S
Banks' warning on moratorium money… Bankers warn that many businesses may not be able to square their positions by March 2021 with regards to dues relating to the ongoing moratorium period, because of the delay in demand resumption. Several bankers are now saying that more time may need to be given to businesses to repay both the principal and interest amounts pertaining to the moratorium. At present, borrowers who opted for the moratorium are much more indebted than they would have been had there been no lockdown. Read More

Sebi to enforce margin money clause… Investors and traders will soon have to cough up the entire upfront margin money before they buy or short-sell shares. After a few postponements, Sebi has decided to implement the new norms on upfront margins from August 1 as it looks to curb wild speculation in the market. If brokers do not collect the margins upfront, they will have to pay a penalty to the exchanges. Read More

Covid-19 forces India Inc relook at boards… The current pandemic, which has challenged businesses like never before, has also got them thinking about the quality of their board of directors. Although the process of examining value-addition by independent directors had started some time earlier, hiring experts said it is only now, since the pandemic, that it is being accelerated. It is understood that in some cases, with valuable suggestions not always forthcoming from board members, CEOs have been all at sea in these unprecedented times. Read More

Meanwhile...
Google Tax collection shoots up… India has collected more than Rs 2,600 crore by taxing digital advertising since it began levying the equalisation tax in 2016, people in the know said, even as the government has now expanded the scope of the levy to include transactions by foreign ecommerce operators as well. The collections have increased from Rs 338 crore in 2016-17, the first year since the so-called Google tax of 6% was introduced, to Rs 589 crore the following year, government data showed. In 2018-19, the proceeds rose further to Rs 939 crore. Read More
KEY INDICES
15,242 + 208.55
12,783 + 140.27
21,967 + 369.65
16,821  -104.7
Price Movers|Volume Movers|Near 52 Week High|Near 52 Week Low

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Stocks to Watch >>>

The Edelweiss group will be completely exiting the wholesale credit business by 2022, shifting its focus to retail credit along with asset and wealth management verticals

FMCG major HUL on Sunday said it has temporarily closed down its Haridwar plant, where several of its employees have tested positive for Covid-19

Future Retail has clarified to the BSE that it is not in discussion with any of its lenders to re-negotiate lending terms except seeking moratorium as per the terms of the RBI circular.

SBI will move to a new floating rate benchmark for business and retail loans, delivering a rate cut for existing loans worth Rs 8 lakh crore.

India's drug regulator has pulled up Glenmark for pricing its Favipiravir drug FabiFlu, approved for treatment of Covid-19, "not in the interest of the poor, lower middle class and middle class people of India."

UnQuote: CHANGE IS GOOD
A partially de-globalised world would offer more benefit from diversification
Arnav Das, Global Market Strategist for EMEA Region, Invesco

The DAY PLANNER

    Earnings: ACC | Bombay Dyeing | DEN Networks | SBI Cards
    Japan Balance of Trade June (05.20 am)
    BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes (05.20 am)
    China Prime Loan Rate (1-year) (07.00 am)
    Euro Area May Current Account (01.30 pm)
    ECB Lane Speech (08.00 pm)

OUTLOOK
Is higher Nifty Put-Call Ratio a worry?
    Independent market expert Kunal Bothra says one derivative parameter can prove to be an issue with the market now: the put-call ratio. "The open interest put-call ratio on Nifty for the weekly expiry or rather for the monthly expiry is at 1.6-1.62 levels. We can say that the market is in the overbought territory, which is why the put-call ratios are signalling those kinds of levels. Generally higher put-call ratios tend to bring in more froth into the market. However, Bank Nifty looks very attractive and that should be the tone for the next week," says he. Read More

Why you need to keep sone liquidity now?
    Priya Misra of TD Securities says the big run ins stocks has priced in all the stimulus that was put in the system: monetary, fiscal, global stimulus. "The markets are priced to perfection at this point. Going forward, can we extrapolate from the strength in retail sales? I would argue not. In fact, some of the higher frequency data metrics that we are looking at is suggesting that the data momentum is slowing in the US. One should navigate the market very carefully now. Make sure you have got liquidity on standby, because typically August tends to be weaker on the liquidity front. I am not saying get out of all risk assets, but make sure you have got liquidity," says she. Read More

High-beta stocks will join the action now
    Kunj Bansal of Sarthi Group says with every rise in the market, high-beta stocks will start to participate. "With every rise, it is the low-beta stock which will make a comeback. Let us remember that the IT sector has largely remained a non-participant in this whole rally of last three months. Pharma has participated with some corrections in between, but not as much. So, with every rise in the market, the risk-reward ratio would continue to move more in favour of risk and less in favour of reward," says he. Read More

STOCKS RECOMMENDATIONS
Minda Corporation Ltd. 17 Jul, 2020 | 12:00 PM IST buyBuy
TVS Motor Company Ltd. 17 Jul, 2020 | 11:19 AM IST SellNeutral


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