Thursday, 23 July 2020

Midcaps that can deliver 35% in a year | What's on top of FPI buy list | How to play RIL stock now

MORNING NEWSLETTER

24 Jul, 2020 | 08:37 AM IST


Good Morning!

Financial markets want more retail participation. But now that it has come flooding, it's causing worries. The US SEC chief is worried about the risks to retail investors, who are increasingly making short-term bets via low-cost trading platforms. Sebi chief has pleaded with this class of investors to start their investing journey with risk-free govt securities. What's contributing to this frenzy are low-cost, easy-to-use trading apps. In May-June, retail volumes on Dalal Street hit a decade high of 70% and daily trading volumes rose from Rs 41,000-42,000 crore to Rs 60,000 crore. This money has gone mostly into risky trades, and can cause more damage than just financial loss if stocks were to crash now.

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MARKET CUES: Where do we stand >>>
    Nifty futures on the Singapore Exchange traded 48 points lower at 7 am (IST) this morning, in signs of a weak opening ahead for Dalal Street.

    On Thursday, Nifty negated the previous day's 'Hanging Man' candle and made higher highs and lows. Analysts said supports are moving higher gradually, but Nifty is facing hurdles at higher levels.

    Stocks in Asia retreated after an unexpected rise in US jobless claims rekindled concern a recovery in the world's largest economy has stalled. Shares in China, Hong Kong and Australia opened lower. Kospi was little changed. Japanese markets remain closed for a holiday.

    US stocks fell overnight as the lawmakers struggled to agree on a new round of stimulus measures ahead of the expiry of desperately needed unemployment benefits. Dow ended 1.31% lower, while the S&P500 shed 1.23% and the Nasdaq 2.29%.

    The rupee pared its initial gains and settled on a flat note at 74.75 against the US dollar on Thursday as escalating tensions between the US and China weighed on investor sentiment.

    The dollar slumped to its lowest in nearly two years on Thursday, as investors continued to sell the greenback on fears that the US economy will struggle to outperform its peers. The euro celebrated a 21-month peak against the greenback. The Australian dollar retreated from a 15-month peak.

    Oil edged up on Friday as the dollar fell to an almost two-year low. Brent crude prices rose 15 cents, or 0.4%, to $43.46 a barrel while WTI crude rose by 12 cents, or 0.3%, to $41.19.

    Domestic gold prices surged to a new high of Rs 50,703 per 10 gm while silver prices climbed to Rs 60,785 a kg. On MCX, gold prices rose over 1% to Rs 50,703 on Thursday while silver climbed marginally to Rs 61,120. In global markets, the precious metal last traded at $1,1886 an ounce having climbed 4.2% so far this week.

LOOK WHO'S

Home loan rates fall to multi-decade lows… A clutch of public sector banks and lending institutions has slashed home loan rates to multi-decadal lows raising the prospect of a full-blown rate war when other banks jump into the fray. LIC Housing Finance on Thursday marginally pipped SBI by pegging its home loan rate at a record low of 6.90%. SBI is offering home loans starting from 6.95%. The rates offered by some large PSBs are now close to multi-decade lows of 6.7% to 7.10%. Read More

FPIs turn focus on Covid beneficiaries… FPIs are giving preference to the companies benefiting from the pandemic-led demand, show data from NSDL. Sectors such as consumer, insurance and white goods accounted for 96 per cent of the Rs 24,330 crore net investments by FPIs in Indian equities between April and the first fortnight of July. These sectors together accounted for 10 per cent of the total assets under management of FPIs in India, a gain of 211 basis points since the beginning of the year. Read More

Urban employment shoots up to 35%… Despite intermittent lockdown in most towns, urban employment for the week ended July 19 shot up to 35.1% after its great fall in April. The overall employment rate jumped, suggesting that an equilibrium is setting in the labour market, the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy said. The marginal dip in overall employment rate in July, after sharp pickup in June, has reversed with an employment rate at 38.41% for the week ended July 19, almost at par with June 21 level of 38.42 per cent, it said. Read More

Rs 8,800 cr aid to stuck housing projects… The special financing window for held-up housing projects has provided assistance of nearly Rs 8,800 crore to 81 projects — with 27 in Mumbai and 26 in Delhi NCR — and another 353 stressed facilities in the line. Under the scheme, the government is hoping that around 60,000 residential units will be completed across the country, including in cities such as Bengaluru, Chennai, Pune, Chandigarh, Jaipur and Vizag. Read More

AND WHO'S

Govt to miss Budget estimates… The government may be unable to meet its Budget estimates for the current financial year (2020-21) due to the Covid-19 crisis, but expects a V-shaped recovery and the contraction in economic growth may not be as sharp as estimated, Economic Affairs Secretary Tarun Bajaj said on Thursday. "We will not be able to achieve our Budget Estimate figures, but the kind of contraction some of the people are mentioning may also not turn out," he said. Read More

Centre slaps curbs on Chinese bidders… In a significant escalation of tension with China, the Centre late Thursday changed rules to enable curbs on bidders from countries that share a land border with India "on the grounds of defence and national security". Though the order does not name any country , it is clearly aimed at scrutinising and imposing curbs on Chinese investments and partnerships in Indian projects. The new rules seek to block supply of stationery, turbines and telecom equipment and award of road and power contracts to companies that have a link with China. Read More

Banks push for one-time loan rejig… Banks and corporates are coming together to make a last-ditch effort to convince the government and RBI to allow a one-time restructuring of loans to tide over the stress caused by Covid-19 pandemic. In the past few days, banks and industry bodies have explored ways to strike a balance between New Delhi's fear that it could let undeserving companies have a free ride and the actual ability of most borrowers to service and repay loans amid diminished cash flow and demand. Read More

Meanwhile...
Chinese bulk drug supply resumes… Supplies of bulk drugs from China are back to normal, easing concerns of India's pharmaceutical industry that has been facing a shortage and rising cost of the raw material since the start of the coronavirus outbreak. Resumption of normal supplies has also calmed worries, at least for now, about the Sino-Indian border standoff affecting imports from China and disrupting India's pharma industry. Read More
KEY INDICES
15,572 + 148.35
12,996 + 78.81
23,084 + 201.3
17,045  -30.85
Price Movers|Volume Movers|Near 52 Week High|Near 52 Week Low

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Stocks to Watch >>>

Vodafone Idea has responded strongly to the telecom regulator's concerns over its premium RedX tariff offer, saying they are not based on facts and the 127,000 subscribers on the plan — not even 0.1% of its 4G user base — can't hurt services for the rest.

Irdai has asked Max Life Insurance to rework its deal with Axis Bank as it has not agreed to the 'value creation options' condition that allowed Axis Bank to exit at a fixed price.

RIL on Thursday became the first Indian company to enter the global top 50 most-valued companies' club as its stock price hit an all-time high of Rs 2,079 and the market cap crossed the Rs 13 lakh crore mark for the first time

Wipro will acquire Salesforce implementation partner 4C for 68 million euros, the Bengaluru-based software services exporter said on Thursday.

SpiceJet has been designated as a scheduled Indian carrier to operate flights to the US. The low-cost carrier has for some time been considering wet-leasing wide-bodied aircraft for international flights.

UnQuote: BULLISH VIEW
We have a 40,000 target for Sensex if all goes well
Jonathan Garner, Chief Asia & Emerging Market Strategist, Morgan Stanley

The DAY PLANNER

    Earnings: Ambuja Cement I Asian Paint | Atul | ITC | ZEE
    Britain June Retail Sales (11.30 am)
    EU Markit Manufacturing PMI Flash July (01.30 pm)
    RBI Forex Reserves as of July 17 (05.00 pm)
    US Markit Services PMI Flash July (07.15 pm)
    US June New Home Sales (07.30 pm)

OUTLOOK
Will the rural theme work now?
    Max Life Insurance CIO Mihir Vora says the rural economy has been resilient. "It looks like the trickle-down effect of government stimulus, coupled with a good monsoon last year and very good rainfall distribution this year, plus the MGNREGA benefits have been percolating down and making the rural economy a lot more resilient. We are also seeing some pricing power in foodgrains, vegetables. The rural theme -- whether it is two-wheelers or four-wheelers, tractors, paints, cement, low-ticket items like FMCG -- should do better in near term," says he. Read More

Retail rush a cause of concern
    Ashok Wadhwa of Ambit Capital says he has been cautious with the sudden rise in retail participation in the market. "I am not sure we can at this stage predict that the market is in a bull range, and that it shall continue to move in tandem with the developments that we have seen over the last month or so. What concerns me is the fact that retail participation is at a decade high. I always worry when the retail participation moves up so dramatically and so fast. I would worry what happens if there was a downward trend once again," says he. Read More

Capital goods caught in a storm
    Independent market analyst Sandip Sabharwal says a perfect storm of sorts has hit companies in the capital goods and construction industries as the project pipelie from state and central governments has closed. "Finances of these governments have got stressed and to that extent, there will be an impact on the pace of execution going forward. On the other side, the oil and gas industry is also in a turmoil. Those are the issues which L&T could face," says he. Read More

STOCKS RECOMMENDATIONS
SBI Life Insurance Company Ltd. 23 Jul, 2020 | 11:56 AM IST buyBuy
ICICI Securities Ltd. 23 Jul, 2020 | 12:43 PM IST buyBuy


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