Tuesday, 3 December 2019

Grey market blue chip tops HUL, SBI, HDFC | Vedanta may dole out another hefty dividend | Lenders offer fresh plan for DHFL resolution

MORNING NEWSLETTER

4 Dec, 2019 | 08:17 AM IST


Good Morning!

While a rate cut in tomorrow's RBI money policy looks like a given, even though inflation numbers do not look that comfortable, financial markets would be watching more keenly if the central bank decides to downgrade FY20 growth projection further from 6.1 per cent currently. Some economists say it may come down to around 5.5 per cent or thereabouts. That could be bad for investor sentiment. Because, it would push revival expectations all the way to the second quarter of next calendar, and put further pressure on government finances to prop up growth.

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STREET PULSE: Where we stand
Nifty futures on Singapore Exchange traded 45 points down at 7 am (IST), signalling weakness ahead on Dalal Street. Elsewhere in Asia, shares extended their losses after US President Donald Trump said a trade deal with China might have to wait until after the 2020 presidential election, dashing market hopes for a quick preliminary agreement. HERE'S WHAT TO WATCH

    MSCI index for Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan fell 0.4%. Japan's Nikkei dropped 1% in early trade. Australia's S&P/ASX200 was down 1.6%, having shed almost 4% since closing on Monday.

    Wall Street witnessed a wave of selling in overnight trade. Dow shed a percentage point, while the Nasdaq fell half a percentage point and the S&P 500 0.66%.

    Oil prices rose ahead of a meeting of Opec and its allies to discuss whether to extend production curbs. Brent crude futures were up 28 cents at $61.10 a barrel while WTI crude futures rose by 27 cents to $56.37.

    The rupee closed steady against the US dollar on Tuesday as the domestic forex market turned cautious ahead of RBI monetary policy outcome.
LOOK WHO'S

Grey Market's Blue Chip... The value of unlisted Reliance Retail, India's biggest retailer by revenues, crossed Rs 5 lakh crore recently following the sharp run-up in the price of its shares in the unofficial market, said brokers. The Mukesh Ambani-controlled firm is worth more than blue-chips Hindustan Unilever, HDFC, ICICI Bank, Kotak Bank and SBI, and over four times the value of its closest listed rival Avenue Supermarts, owner of DMart, going by its latest price in the grey market. Read More

Telcos Speak in One Voice… Bharti Airtel, Vodafone Idea and Reliance Jio Infocomm have asked the telecom regulator to "urgently" set a floor price for data services to afford immediate relief to the debt-ridden industry at a time when other sources of funds such as equity and debt have "dried up." The telcos said a tariff order from Trai would be the best way to achieve this, in a rare display of unanimity. Read More

GST Review Begins… The GST Council is set to embark on a comprehensive review of the tax structure in the wake of growing revenue concerns when it meets on December 18. The review will include exempted items, GST and compensation cess rates and revenue augmentation measures. The GST Council secretariat has sought inputs from state governments on all these issues. The move comes at a time when tax collections have been hit, which authorities believe has been due to a massive reduction in rates. Read More

WHO'S
DHFL Guarantees… The promoters of Dewan Housing Finance have given personal guarantees to more than Rs 80,000 crore of loans on the firm's books, filings and the annual report for March 2019 show. The personal guarantees cover various borrowings and include guarantee on secured non-convertible debenture of Rs 42,344 crore, Rs 31,975 crore worth term loans from banks, Rs 2,435 crore of term loans from NHB and foreign debt worth Rs 2,807 crore. The total debt covered by personal guarantees of the Wadhwan family is Rs 82,949 crore. Read More

SAT Relief for Karvy… The Securities Appellate Tribunal has suspended the transfer of shares from the DP account of Karvy Stock Broking and directed Sebi's whole-time director to hear Bajaj Finance's grievances, which had challenged the regulator's share-shift order. Without commenting on the merit of the case filed by Bajaj Finance against a November 22 Sebi order, SAT has asked the whole-time director to hear the NBFC on the basis of its representation dated November 23. The SAT order was passed by CKG Nair and Justice M T Patil. Read More

Meanwhile...
President Donald Trump signalled he would be willing to wait for another year before striking a trade agreement with China, casting doubt on the likelihood of a phase-one accord within weeks between Washington and Beijing. "I have no deadline," he told reporters on Tuesday when asked if he wanted an agreement by year end. Stocks dropped in Europe and US as Trump's comments indicated no urgency to reach a deal by Dec. 15, which US Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross on Monday had described as a "logical deadline". Read More
KEY INDICES
16,918  -185.6
13,409  -99.3
31,613  -258.1
14,921 + 68.75
Price Movers|Volume Movers|Near 52 Week High|Near 52 Week Low

Stocks to Watch >>>

    Shares of Vedanta are trading at an estimated dividend yield of almost 10%. Going by historical record, investors can expect the dividend in less than six months

    Wipro Consumer Care has bought Canway Corp, a South African personal care company, for an undisclosed amount to enter Africa's second-biggest economy.

    Standard Life Investments, the foreign JV partner in HDFC AMC, is selling up to 86 lakh shares of the leading fund house to mobilise up to Rs 2,726 crore through the offer for sale route.

    The country's largest carmaker Maruti Suzuki says it will hike vehicle prices from January to offset rising input costs. Toyota, Mahindra and Mercedes-Benz are also contemplating similar moves.

    Steel tycoon Lakshmi Mittal's ArcelorMittal has approached the government seeking immunity from likely future investigations pertaining to Essar Steel and its erstwhile promoters, the Ruia family

    Entities belonging to Capri Group have bought 4.9% in Lakshmi Vilas Bank. With this, Capri has emerged as one of the largest non-promoter shareholders in LVB along with Indiabulls, which owns a tad below 5%

    Allcargo Logistics plans to buy up to 50% in Gati, valuing it at Rs 1,200 crore in a deal to be announced later this week.

    Serial pharma entrepreneur Arun Kumar, who sold his injectables business to Mylan for over Rs 10,000 crore six years ago, is readying to cash out of another venture, Sequent Scientific.

UnQuote: HOT STOCKS
In every sector, 1-2 giants emerging at the cost of the rest
Saurabh Mukherjea, Marcellus Investment

The DAY PLANNER
    India Nov Markit services PMI
    API Crude oil stock change
    UK Nov services PMI
    China Caixin services PMI for Nov

OUTLOOK
YES BANK
    Girish Pai of Nirmal Bang says if the lender does not get capital, it is going to go back down to that Rs 30 mark. "It is quite possible it is going to go back there. Survival comes into the picture again and you will probably see single digit kind of prices on that particular company. If it does get capital, then one needs to look at how things are going to pan out from an asset quality situation. YES Bank has got a fairly large watch list, running close to Rs 30,000 crore of loans."

PHARMA
    Hemang Jani of Sharekhan says pharma has seen a very selective revival in MNC pharma stocks. A whole host of companies have reported good set of numbers and because of under-ownership and strong visibility, a good amount of traction is being seen there. "At most of the top companies -- be it Sun, Lupin or Dr Reddy's -- we are not seeing any strong numberseither from the US market or from India. So, it is time to be a bit selective here with preferences for stocks like Biocon, Divi's and select MNC pharma companies," he says.

AUTO
    Pashupati Advani of Global Foray says he is not bullish on auto at all. "Two sharp winds are hitting auto; one is the millennial culture -- people who do not want to own automobiles and are quite happy with the Ubers and Olas -- and the other is we are moving to electric cars. The government also has to reframe their policy on duties. These two shifts are hurting the auto industry," he said.

STOCKS RECOMMENDATIONS
Gujarat Gas Ltd. 3 Dec, 2019 | 11:55 AM IST buyBuy
Sun TV Network Ltd. 3 Dec, 2019 | 11:56 AM IST SellSell


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