Tuesday, 17 December 2019

NBCC set to acquire Jaypee Infra | AMC stocks breach valuation comfort | Stocks that can top Rs 20 lakh cr m-cap by 2025

MORNING NEWSLETTER

18 Dec, 2019 | 08:36 AM IST


Good Morning!

Scholar, trainer and risk analyst Nassim Nicholas Taleb has an interesting observation on India: "You have a structure that is not very good for starting businesses. Why? Because smart people here like to go to university and then have a prestigious position. That is not how you build an economy." Taleb says to build an economy, people need to start businesses, learn to take risk to be able to transform it from a rent economy to a risk economy.

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STREET PULSE: Where we stand
Nifty futures on Singapore Exchange traded some 13 points higher at 7 am (IST), promising a positive start to trade on Dalal Street. Elsewhere in Asia, share markets took a breather at 18-month peaks after having climbed for five straight sessions. HERE'S WHAT TO WATCH

    MSCI index for Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was flat in thin early trade, just off its highest since June last year. Japan's Nikkei dipped 0.1%, while Korean shares edged up 0.1% to an eight-month peak.

    Wall Street's major indices inched higher on Tuesday, extending their record-setting rally. Dow rose 31.27 points to 28,267, the S&P500 gained 1.07 points to 3,192 and the Nasdaq added 9.13 points to 8,823.

    Oil prices retreated after rising more than 1% in the previous session as US industry data showed a surprise build in crude stocks, but hopes for firmer demand next year checked a deeper fall in prices. Brent crude futures dropped 21 cents to $65.89 a barrel while WTI crude futures fell 31 cents to $60.63

    The rupee pared early morning gains to settle 2 paise down at 70.98 against the US currency on Tuesday.
LOOK WHO'S

Jaypee Resolution… The Committee of Creditors of Jaypee Infratech has selected state-run NBCC to acquire the realty developer after lenders and homebuyers concluded their voting on Monday night. NBCC's proposal received 97.4% of total votes with 39.6% of lenders and 57.7% of homebuyers backing the offer. Ten out of 12 lenders voted in favour of NBCC's proposal, including lead lender IDBI Bank. NBCC has sought three months to raise money and plans to start actual work on the project by the first week of May. Read More

GST Council Agenda… A boost for the real estate sector, rationalisation of tax rates on lotteries, making refunds seamless for exporters are the topics set to dominate Wednesday's GST Council meeting, as per the agenda for the meeting. The government is looking to balance revenue collections between states and the Centre besides ironing out problems faced by a few industries. The council is also likely to consider a proposal to further restrict input tax credit as it eyes measures to plug revenue leakages, a move that could pose cashflow problems for India Inc. Read More

I-T Cuts Coming?… The government is likely to trim personal income tax rates and cut the tax on long-term capital gains from equity investments in its next budget, in a bid to spur economic growth, Reuters reported quoting four government officials. "We are discussing tinkering with ... income tax rates so that more money is put in the people's hands," a senior government official directly involved in budget discussions said. Read More

WHO'S
Too Pricey for Comfort… Mutual fund penetration in India is just a quarter of the global average, but valuations of Indian asset management companies are outpacing global peers by a wide margin. Shares of HDFC AMC and Reliance Nippon Life Asset Management trade at a trailing multiple of 71 and 44, respectively, making them the most expensive asset management companies compared with the average P/E of 19.6 for global AMCs, Bloomberg data showed. The two Indian AMC stocks have earned more than 100% return in 2019 so far — the best performances among the BSE500 companies and globally listed AMCs. Read More

India Downgrade Ahead… The IMF is all set to revise estimates for India's economic growth in January, which will be a significant downward cut over the previous estimate, its chief economist Gita Gopinath said on Tuesday. "India is one of the emerging markets where growth has surprised on the downside," she at Times Networks' India Economic Conclave. IMF currently projects India to grow at 6.1% in 2019 and 7% in 2020. Read More

PF Money to PEs/VCs?… India's private equity and venture capital industry is asking that domestic pension funds allocate 1% of their overall assets to alternate investment funds and is proposing the creation of multiple startup focused fund-of-funds, backed by the government, to channel such investments. The idea, mooted by the Indian Venture Capital Association, the nodal body representing the sector, is also seeking tax breaks as incentives to create such pools of domestic capital. Read More

Meanwhile...
Niti Aayog, the government think tank, is working on a proposal aimed at improving India's low nutrition ranking and centred on the idea that the government subsidises protein-rich food, including eggs, fish, chicken and meat, possibly through its public distribution system.This is likely to be part of Niti Aayog's 15-year Vision Document. The document is expected to be in place by early next year and will be effective from April 1, 2020. licymakers and individuals. Read More
KEY INDICES
16,939 + 96.85
13,394 + 87.98
32,140 + 166.05
15,637 + 288.4
Price Movers|Volume Movers|Near 52 Week High|Near 52 Week Low

Stocks to Watch >>>

    Piramal Enterprises has put up 20% equity in its healthcare vertical for sale, seeking to expand the business.

    GIC has given a Rs 700 crore interim loan to IRB Infrastructure, after the Singapore sovereign wealth fund had committed Rs 4,400 crore investment in its investment trust

    Bidders for the bankrupt Reliance Communications have put stringent conditions with their bids, making it more difficult for lenders to strike a resolution plan

    Bonds of DHFL traded in the secondary markets for the first time since the embattled financier became the first from its industry to be put into administration.

    L&T Finance has closed its public issue of secured NCDs early. The Tranche I issue has been fully subscribed and has raised Rs 1,503.35 crore.

    Prince Pipes has raised Rs 150 crore from eight anchor investors ahead of its initial public offering, which commences on December 18, 2019.

    Patanjali Ayurved has deposited its equity portion in a SBI escrow account, in what is the final step before it completes acquisition of Ruchi Soya

UnQuote: GROWTH FORMULA
India should forget macroeconomic indicators, just work on the structure
Nassim Taleb, Scholar, Trainer & Risk Analyst

The DAY PLANNER

    GST Council Meeting
    Trump impeachment vote
    ECB President Lagarde Speech
    BoE Gov Carney Speech
    Dec API Crude Oil Stock Change
    Japan's Nov Balance of Trade
    UK Nov Inflation Rate

OUTLOOK
STOCK PICKING: MOBIUS' FORMULA
    Mark Mobius of Mobius Capital Partners says is he has to buy only one stock, he would buy the one that has over 20% return on capital, pays a dividend yield of 3% or 4%, has a debt-equity ratio of less than 50%, has no multiple share classes, one share class and has a turnover of at least 2 million a day.

INDIA RECOVERY: SLOW & STEADY
    Vikas Khemani of Carnelian Capital Advisors says India is going to see a slow and steady sort of repair in the economy and improvement in risk appetite with pickup in credit offtake. "We are still very low close to where it should be. If I were only to say that the current scenario is pretty bad. As the liquidity improves, it is getting better slowly," he said.

INSURANCE STOCKS: BUY & HOLD
    Deven R Choksey of KR Choksey Investment Managers says he continues to like life insurance businessed and will be accumulating more in that space."We continue to like HDFC Life, SBI Life and Bajaj Finserv where they hold insurance businesses," he said.

STOCKS RECOMMENDATIONS
Amara Raja Batteries Ltd. 18 Dec, 2019 | 08:34 AM IST buyAdd
Finolex Cables Ltd. 18 Dec, 2019 | 08:32 AM IST SellHold


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