Sunday, 15 December 2019

20,000 Reliance Home Finance bondholders set to take a hit | Indian firms with UK exposure under watch | GSK eyes multi-billion bonanza on HUL stake

MORNING NEWSLETTER

16 Dec, 2019 | 08:26 AM IST


Good Morning!

Are the US-China trade deal and clarity over Brexit good for Indian equities? While less uncertainty is always good for global economy and growth concerns will probably ease now, that also raises the risk of a possible spike in oil price, something that always scares Indian markets and policy makers. Plus, no one really has a clear idea how bad will the pain be from Britain's divorce with the EU. One sector in for sure-shot gain is long-depressed metals. Prices of some base metals are very low, inventories are down and stocks are offering great entry points.

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STREET PULSE: Where we stand
Nifty futures on Singapore Exchange traded some 8 points down at 7 am (IST), signalling indecisiveness on Dalal Street. Elsewhere in Asia, shares ticked higher as investors cheered the US-China trade agreement over the weekend although jubilation was capped by prevailing scepticism about the deal. HERE'S WHAT TO WATCH

    MSCI index for Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan rose 0.21% after touching its highest level since April 24 on Friday. Australian shares jumped, adding 1.23%. But Japan's Nikkei pulled back 0.21% after a strong rally on Friday.

    US shares had struck a cautious note on Friday, paring initial gains to end barely higher as weary investors awaited signs of a concrete deal. But the news of a deal was still enough to send the S&P500 to a record closing high of 3,168.8, up 0.01%. Nasdaq added 0.2% and the Dow 0.01%

    Crude oil prices, which had risen on Friday following the trade deal, cooled in early Asian trade on Monday. WTI crude fell 0.38 per cent to trade at $59.84 a barrel. Brent futures fell 23 cents to $64.99

    The rupee jumped 33 paise in day trade before closing flat at 70.83 to the US dollar on Friday as surging crude oil prices after reports of a US-China trade deal knocked off sharp gains.
LOOK WHO'S

New Year Bonanza… GlaxoSmithkline Plc is exploring its exit from HUL early in the New Year. This comes about a year after GSK Consumer Healthcare agreed to merge with HUL. GSK Plc said it would sell the stake once the merger was completed in early 2020. It didn't say when it would do so and that the sale would occur in "tranches". Read More

Nifty up for Good Run?... Open interest (OI) build-up on Nifty weekly options suggests the market would move in a 300-point range between 11,950 and 12,250 levels this week with a slight bias toward the upside, analysts said, but warned that once a new high was made, the index would consolidate or even possibly correct. A thaw in the US-China trade standoff is a positive but negative industrial growth, a slowing economy and rising retail inflation could keep the market range-bound, they said. Read More

SBI Gets a Windfall... SBI is set to get about Rs 12,161 crore as the largest acquisition through the three-year-old Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code is completed on Monday. Essar Steel's sale to the Arcelor Mittal-Nippon Steel consortium will allow two of the world's top three steel makers to gain a foothold in the growing Indian market, giving tough competition to incumbents Tata Steel and JSW Steel. Read More

WHO'S
Another Default Looms... About 20,000 debenture holders in Reliance Home Finance— including individuals, mutual funds and retirement bodies — are set to take the first hit on their investments as the full repayments of about Rs 3,000 crore fall due on January 3, with little hope of recovery. The trustee of such junk bonds has warned the company of legal action if it fails to repay the same. Read More

Pharma Biggies in a Spot... Sun Pharmaceutical Industries, Abbott, AstraZeneca, Lupin and other big drugmakers have come under the scanner of India's drug pricing watchdog for excluding products from the price control regime without first applying for such an exemption. This is in violation of the Drug Price Control Order (DPCO). NPPA has found that companies such as Lupin and Boehringer Ingelheim, apart from those mentioned above, launched products bypassing the regulatory framework. Read More

Job Loss Scare in Telecom…Thousands of employees at Vodafone Idea and Bharti Airtel are looking out, after the telecom companies posted unprecedented losses and stare at huge statutory dues, recruiters said. Despite some relief from the government and tariff hikes, employees are still seeking other opportunities, the recruiters added. Read More

Meanwhile...
Several measures aimed at plugging revenue leakages under the GST regime are expected to figure at the upcoming GST Council meeting on Wednesday as the Centre and the states look to perk up collections. A concept paper based on the report of the committee of officials on revenue mobilisation is likely to be presented to the council. The states remain divided on the issue of raising rates or carrying out a significant revamp of the structure at this time. Read More
KEY INDICES
16,932 + 160.9
13,333 + 108.68
32,014 + 348.8
15,201 + 227.9
Price Movers|Volume Movers|Near 52 Week High|Near 52 Week Low

Stocks to Watch >>>

    After selling 205 MW of operational solar energy portfolio to Adani Group, Essel Group has reached an agreement to sell the remaining 480 MW of solar energy assets also to Adani Green Energy

    Distressed asset funds like Lone Star, Cerberus, Brookfield and Varde Partners make a beeline for India following a recent SC order upholding the primacy of secured creditors in the Essar Steel case.

    Mutual funds are contesting the insider trading charges by Sebi against them for trades in Manappuram Finance

    Reliance Industries has emerged as the number one company in terms of revenue in the Fortune India 500 list for 2019, pipping Indian Oil Corporation (IOC).

    State-owned NLC India said it is planning to invest more than Rs 17,000 crore for its thermal power projects and has embarked upon afforestation programme inside and outside the coal mining area in Odisha.

    The Centre is likely to sell 28% of its stake in BEML through strategic disinvestment and retain 26 per cent after the dilution of its shareholding in the public sector undertaking, a senior company official said

UnQuote: MARKET OUTLOOK
Market will continue to climb the wall of worries
Sonam Udasi, Tata Mutual Fund

The DAY PLANNER

    Japan flash manufacturing PMI for Dec
    India WPI Inflation for Nov
    Britain Dec flash manufacturing PMI
    Dec US flash manufacturing/services PMI

OUTLOOK
PHARMA: FOCUS ON HOME PLAYS
    Sudip Bandyopadhyay of Inditrade Capital says he is focussed on pharma companies that have significant and expanding market shares in India. "While global business is excellent and has a lot of upsides, at this stage, the largest market US is going through a whole lot of challenges, including regulatory. That is making the companies which are exposed to the US market a bit volatile. That is why it makes sense to look at companies that are India focused," he said

MARKET: THE WAY FORWARD
    Mahantesh Sabarad of SBICAP Securities says a lot of good news is lined up for the the market next year. "A case in point is auto sales, which probably will start to recover as we move to the next calendar Consumer goods companies have been showing good volume growth. Interest rates are not threateningly high, although bond yields have moved up. And banks are now looking forward to recoveries," he said.

INFLATION: WILL IT RISE MORE?
    Economists at BofA Securities says India's rising CPI inflation is primarily driven by a temporary spike in onion price and statistical base effect of the dip in CPI inflation last year. "Fundamental drivers of inflation remain in check. A substantial output gap restrains corporate pricing power. Liquidity remains tight, agflation should be in check as rabi sowing improves and 'imported' inflation will remain muted thanks to RBI's recent forex intervention limiting depreciation as well as weak world growth, which will hold up global commodity prices," they said

STOCKS RECOMMENDATIONS
Housing Development Finance Corporation Ltd. 16 Dec, 2019 | 08:20 AM IST buyBuy
Hindalco Industries Ltd. 16 Dec, 2019 | 08:21 AM IST buyBuy


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