Sunday, 1 December 2019

Banking, oil & gas stocks corner lion's share of FPI flows | Brokerages bullish on Ujjivan Bank IPO | D-Street expects RBI to cut rate by 25 bps

MORNING NEWSLETTER

2 Dec, 2019 | 08:17 AM IST


Good Morning!

GVA, or gross value added, measures the value of goods and services produced in an area, industry or sector of an economy in a particular time. In Q2 GDP print, this factor tells the real story: manufacturing is actually contracting, and services growth is slowing too. As many economists point out, actual Q2 GDP print was 3.1%; but for a 1.9 percentage points addition from government spending which helped salvage the situation. How much can the base effect redeem this situation going forward, really?

72324661

STREET PULSE: Where we stand
Nifty futures on Singapore Exchange traded 15 points down at 7 am (IST), signalling indecisiveness on Dalal Street. Elsewhere in Asia, shares ticked up and oil rebounded after a big fall late last week, as investors clung to hopes Beijing and Washington could reach a compromise in trade talks. HERE'S WHAT TO WATCH

    MSCI index for Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was up 0.17%, reclaiming some of its one-per cent-plus loss on Friday while Japan's Nikkei rose 0.85%.

    US stocks closed lower on Friday as investors worried about the deterioration in US-China trade relations. Dow retreated 112 points, while S&P500 slipped 12 points and the Nasdaq 39.7 points.

    Oil prices rose as the market drew support from expectations that OPEC and its allies are likely to extend existing oil output cuts when they meet later this week. Brent futures rose 1.16 per cent to $61.19 a barrel while WTI crude gained 1.41 per cent to $55.95.

    The rupee settled 12 paise lower at 71.74 against the US dollar on Friday, tracking heavy selling in domestic equities and growth concerns ahead of the release of GDP data.
LOOK WHO'S

GST Collection Looks Up... India's goods and services tax collections rose 6% to Rs 1.03 lakh crore in November, reversing two months of decline, with experts attributing the increase to festive shopping and better compliance. GST collections were Rs 97,637 crore in November last year and Rs 95,380 crore in October this year. The increase in collections was a sign of economic revival, recovery in demand and measures to ease compliance, government officials said. Read More

Major Infra Booster on Anvil... The government will unveil a series of infrastructure projects this month as part of a plan to invest Rs 100 lakh crore in the sector over the next five years in a push to improve the country's economy, the Finance Minister said. She said the government we will be able to announce frontloading of at least 10 projects before December 15. Read More

WHO'S
Motown Again in Depression... Demand for passenger vehicles tailed off last month after a festive season spike in October, with sluggishness in the broader economy putting the brakes on auto sales. Maruti Suzuki saw sales decline over 3%, M&M sales fell 10% to 14,637 units while Hyundai bucked the trend to report a 2% growth. At Tata Motors, passenger vehicle sales dropped 39%. Read More

Teleco Tariff Hike Here… About a billion mobile phone subscribers will pay up to 40% or so more to make calls and use data from this month, with private operators Reliance Jio Infocomm, Bharti Airtel and Vodafone Idea increasing prices for the first time since 2016 to shore up finances. Airtel and Vodafone Idea increased rates only for prepaid subscribers, who account for over 90% of their user base, starting December 3, while price increases by Jio, which caters to 355 million customers, will be effective from December 6. Read More

Meanwhile...
Beijing's top priority in any phase one trade deal with the US is the removal of existing tariffs on Chinese goods, China's Global Times newspaper reported on Sunday, amid uncertainty on whether the two sides can end a 17-month trade war that has depressed global growth. Sources with direct knowledge of the trade talks told the Global Times on Saturday that the US must remove existing tariffs, not planned tariffs, as part of the deal, the report said. Read More
KEY INDICES
17,222 + 10.4
13,561 + 63.21
31,946  -176.85
14,998  -123.75
Price Movers|Volume Movers|Near 52 Week High|Near 52 Week Low

Stocks to Watch >>>

    The Rs 750 crore IPO of Ujjivan Small Finance Bank will open on Monday and close on Wednesday with its price band set at Rs 36-37. Brokerages have recommended subscribing to the IPO, as it has been priced at a significant discount to its peers

    Infosys BPM, the business process outsourcing subsidiary of Infosys, is expected to nearly double its revenue to $1 billion this financial year, as recent acquisitions by its parent are expected to increase business

    NBCC is likely to offer more land to lenders and reduce timeline for completion of about 20,000 flats in its final bid to acquire bankrupt realty firm Jaypee Infratech

    The Renuka Ramnath-led Multiples Alternate Asset Management, an early entrant into the Indian private equity industry, has raised $560 million for its third India-dedicated PE fund

    SAIL is planning to commence manufacturing of special quality rails for high-speed train corridors and metro projects in the next two years

    Biocon Biologics is focusing on innovative business models to reduce the cost of human insulin and cancer drugs, as it looks to build a pipeline of 28 biosimilars across global markets, the CEO said.

UnQuote: STOCK PICKING
Bottom-up stock selection best approach to pick midcaps
Rahul Singh, Tata AMC

The DAY PLANNER

    Nov India manufacturing PMI
    Nov China manufacturing PMI
    Nov US Markit manufacturing PMI
    Oct US construction spending

OUTLOOK

YES BANK
    Independent analyst Anand Tandon says YES Bank has announced that they would be raising $2 bn in share sale. But if that does not find favour with RBI, there could be a negative reaction the next time the market opens. But largely, there is some resolution in sight. YES Bank desperately needs to get in a large amount of fund infusion," he said.

RBI POLICY REVIEW
    Emkay Global Economist Kruti Shah says Q2 GDP is significantly lower than RBI's trajectory, making room for at least another 50 bps cut, as the policy decision is now anchored toward narrowing the output gap. "Further, the rise in inflation is largely a factor of transitory vegetable prices, excluding which it stands at 3%," she said.

PSU BANKS
    Jay Thakkar of Anand Rathi says the PSU bank index made a comeback last week and the index provided a very nice breakout from an Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern, which is a bullish reversal pattern. "The target comes to 2,850-3,090. Now if it moves towards these levels, I am sure that the banks on the PSU side will continue to perform quite well," he said.

STOCKS RECOMMENDATIONS
Bharti Airtel Ltd. 29 Nov, 2019 | 12:31 PM IST buyBuy
VIP Industries Ltd. 29 Nov, 2019 | 12:23 PM IST buyBuy


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