Monday, 15 July 2019

Trade war pain comes home to hurt | Suzlon's FCCB default | Where's the money, honey?

MORNING NEWSLETTER

16 Jul, 2019 | 08:02 AM IST


Good Morning!

Your Crocs won't be made in China anymore! As more and more US firms prune outsourcing from China to dodge high tariffs, Vietnam, India, Taiwan and Malaysia are seen as clear beneficiaries. US imports from Vietnam rose 36 per cent on year in the five months till May. But Indian exports are shrinking, in clear signs we may have let that opportunity go abegging.

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STREET PULSE: Where we stand

    Nifty futures on Singapore Exchange traded 12 points down at 7 am (IST), signalling a tepid start for Dalal Street. Asian shares inched up as traders awaited US retail sales data and corporate earnings to gauge the health of the economy. Australian shares rose 0.1 per cent but Japan's Nikkei dipped 0.36 per cent. US stocks closed at fresh all-time highs overnight. The Dow rose 0.1 per cent while the Nasdaq climbed 0.2 per cent for new all-time highs. The S&P500 finished little changed in the positive territory. Read More

    Crude oil prices fell for a second day on Tuesday as more production facilities returned to operation in the US Gulf after Hurricane Barry, while Chinese economic data dimmed outlook for crude demand. Brent crude futures slipped 10 cents to $66.38 a barrel while WTI crude fell by 10 cents to $59.48. Read More

LOOK WHO'S

Where is the Money, Honey!... Investors seeking higher returns than bank fixed deposits can consider investing in Shriram Transport Finance's new NCD. The Tranche 1 of the issue is offering up to 9.7 per cent, with senior citizens getting an additional 25 basis points more. Investment tenures are of 30 months with annual interest payment, and 42, 60 and 84 months, with monthly, annual and cumulative interest payment choices. The issue opens for sale on July 17. Read More

My Tax is Your Tax... Super-rich salary earners may get the burden of extra income-tax surcharge passed on to their companies. A diseuqiet in C-suites over the increase in effective tax rate to 43% for those earning Rs 5 crore and more has raised the possibility of salary reviews for some offset. Some 144 executives of BSE500 companies earning on an average Rs 11.4 crore annually may see salaries go up by one-fourth to ensure that their take-home pay remains intact. Read More

WHO'S
Global slowdown comes home to hurt

India's exports shrank for the first time in nine months in June as global trade tension hit shipments and the country braced for the impact of the US withdrawing some benefits. Exports shrank 9.71% to $25.01 billion while imports declined 9.06%, narrowing trade deficit to $15.28 billion from $16.6 billion a year ago, government data showed. Exports to China fell by a sharp 14.1%. Read More

The Big Hit... China's economic growth slowed to 6.2% in June quarter, its weakest pace in at least 27 years, as demand faltered in face of US pressure. Analysts expect Beijing to roll out more support measures for the economy in the weeks ahead. Read More

Meanwhile...
Suzlon Energy is staring at a default on redemption of its foreign currency convertible bonds worth $172 million, or Rs 1,200 crore, due on Tuesday and has told bondholders they will have to wait until banks accept its proposed one-time settlement plan. Read More
KEY INDICES
17,008  -0.8
13,689  -0.63
30,446  -0.51
15,662 + 2.85
Price Movers|Volume Movers|Near 52 Week High|Near 52 Week Low

Stocks to watch

    In a small step toward resolution of the Rs 94,000 crore IL&FS debt crisis, secured lenders to three group firms with loans of Rs 5,071 crore have signed a binding term sheet with IL&FS agreeing to some relief that will remove restrictions on the firms and enable them to get back on track.

    JSW Steel on Monday told NCLT that it is not backing out from the ongoing resolution process of Bhushan Power & Steel despite reports of alleged fraud by its former promoters, but it was anxious about the alleged fraud reports and needs to know what is going inside the company.

    Billionaire Gautam Adani-controlled Adani Port Special Economic Zone is raising up to $650 million in another overseas five-year bond sale is to refinance high-cost debt.

    Vodafone Idea is said to have repaid a sizeable chunk of the almost Rs 4,300 crore of loans due to be cleared in this financial year using a portion of its Rs 25,000 crore rights issue proceeds.

UnQuote: THE BIG SHIFT
Some largecaps have become midcaps on way to becoming smallcaps
Deepak Shenoy, Founder, Capital Mind

Day Planner:

    US Fed Chair Powell's speech
    UK May employment rate
    BoE Governor speech
    US June industrial output data
    EU May Balance of Trade data

OUTLOOK

RUPEE
    IFA Global says the USD-INR pair took support at 68.30 level last week and bounced back to the 68.30-68.40 zone. This zone will continue to act as a major support while the upside is likely to remain capped around 69 in the near term.

CRUDE
    International Energy Agency's latest Oil Market Report says global oil supply exceeded demand by about 0.9 million barrels per day (mb/d) in the first six months of this year. While supplies are set to tighten in the second half, but that may only be a hiatus before the glut returns.

SECTOR
    Kenneth Andrade of Old Bridge Capital Management says capital good sector holds a lot of promise, as the capital goods cycle is operating at around 75% utilisation levels. They have actually started squeezing balance sheets, there is no leverage buildup there and valuations are very fair.

STOCKS RECOMMENDATIONS
Aurobindo Pharma Ltd. 15 Jul, 2019 | 01:44 PM IST buyBuy
Bosch Ltd. 15 Jul, 2019 | 01:34 PM IST buyBuy


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