Wednesday, 31 July 2019

A Fed rate cut that hurt! Plus, what to watch in today's market

MORNING NEWSLETTER

1 Aug, 2019 | 08:04 AM IST


Good Morning!

For investors waiting for a rebound in midcaps, there is bad news. NSE Midcap index is now down 26% from its all-time high hit in January 2018, and trades at the lowest levels since February, 2017. Its trailing P/E is down to 28 times from the peak of 48 times, but higher than the 10-25 times range seen during 2005-2015. And FY20 earnings revisions have been much worse. The pain is far from over!

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STREET PULSE: Where we stand
    Nifty futures on Singapore Exchange traded 55 points lower at 7 am (IST), signalling a negative start for Dalal Street. Asian shares fell to six-week lows after the US Fed poured cold water on expectations of a lengthy rate-easing cycle. Nikkei fell 0.4 per cent, KOSPI 0.5 per cent and Australian shares 0.3 per cent. Overnight, the Dow and Nasdaq lost 1.2 per cent each while the S&P500 declined 1.1 per cent. Read More

    Crude oil prices fell after the US Fed dampened hopes for a string of rate cuts and Sino-US trade talks ended without progress. Brent fell by $1.06 to $63.99 a barrel, while WTI crude slipped 93 cents to $57.65. Read More

LOOK WHO'S

A Fed cut without a path... The US Fed cut interest rates on Wednesday, but said it's not the beginning of a long series of rate cuts to shore up the economy against risks, including global weakness. At the same time, he said, "I didn't say it's just one rate cut." That comment drew a sharp rebuke from President Donald Trump. Financial markets were whipsawed as Fed Chair Powell struggled to define the rate path ahead. Read More

It's a deal!... Promoters of Zee Entertainment Enterprises will sell an 11 per cent stake in the media company to US-based financial investor Invesco Oppenheimer Developing Markets Fund for Rs 4,224 crore. The move, spurning an offer by a Comcast-led group, follows a nine-month search for a buyer as the parent Essel Group seeks to reduce debt. Read More

WHO'S
It's slowing everywhere...

India's core sector growth slumped to its lowest in more than four years in June, reflecting the economic slowdown and the lack of pickup in investment. The index of eight core industries rose 0.2% in June, down from 4.3% in May and 7.8% in the year earlier, government data showed. A sharp slide in the performance of steel and cement underlined the lack of investment. Read More

Back to basics... Indian household savers are returning to low-yielding, but safe, bank deposits after seeing erosion of wealth in debt funds. Annualised deposit growth rose to 10.3 per cent at June end, from 8.1 per cent in September 2018 despite a 75 basis points policy rate cut by RBI during the period. Read More

Meanwhile...
US and Chinese negotiators wrapped up a brief round of trade talks on Wednesday that Beijing described as "constructive", including discussion of further purchases of American farm goods and an agreement to reconvene in September. Read More
KEY INDICES
15,921 + 216.5
12,692 + 42.44
28,876 + 84.4
15,620 + 118.55
Price Movers|Volume Movers|Near 52 Week High|Near 52 Week Low

Stocks to watch

    Coffee Day Enterprises lenders RBL Bank, Axis Bank and Yes Bank and bond investors DSP, Indiabulls and Bank of India-AXA MFs are staring at haircuts after steep erosion in the coffee retailer's market capitalisation. Total debt of the company, at the end of March, stood at Rs 6,547 crore.

    Amazon is in exploratory talks with Reliance Retail to acquire up to 26% in the country's largest brick-and mortar retailer.

    HDFC has reduced its retail prime lending rate or the benchmark home loan rate for all customers effective from August 1 by 10 basis points.

    A sharp spike in yield of overseas bonds issued by Lodha Group and below investment grade ratings accorded to them by rating agencies could reflect a major stress in the realty developer.

    The Digital Communications Commission is split over the decision to impose cumulative penalties of Rs 3,050 crore on Bharti Airtel and Vodafone Idea.

UnQuote: Recovery in sight?
We could be 1-2% from reaching a bottom in Nifty
Sahil Kapoor, Chief Market Strategist, Edelweiss Securities

Day Planner:

    Earnings: Bharti Airtel, Tata Power, CEAT, Marico
    July India auto sales data
    India's July Markit Manufacturing PMI
    BoE interest rate decision

OUTLOOK

DOLLAR
    Analysts say a disappointment for high market expectations of a series of interest rate cuts in the US means a strong dollar until the end of the year. The prospect of monetary easing by the ECB would mean a longer phase of a strong dollar than before.

CRUDE
    Oil prices appear to be trapped within a relatively narrow range, squeezed between competing forces on both upside and downside amid supply outages, OPEC+ cuts and geopolitical unrest on the one hand, and weak demand and a looming return of surplus on the other.

SECTOR
    Samit Vartak of SageOne Investment Advisors says it's a misconception that largecaps are the safest in terms of business model. Even they can be disrupted and that is what we are seeing in the auto sector.

STOCKS RECOMMENDATIONS
Vodafone Idea Ltd. 31 Jul, 2019 | 01:32 PM IST SellReduce
Music Broadcast Ltd. 31 Jul, 2019 | 01:14 PM IST SellHold


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