Thursday, 14 May 2020

Indian bond yields cooling off | Coal India mulls first-ever bond issue | FMCG firms want labour policy eased

MORNING NEWSLETTER

15 May, 2020 | 08:47 AM IST


Good Morning!

Liquidity is nothing but a short-term supply mismatch adjustment. It is not new money coming into the hands of the consumers. Liquidity is not something that is going to alter GDP growth of the nation. What the Modi government is currently doling out is a combination of liquidity and some real money, but it's more of the first. When the April rally was building up to this big package, expectations were more for the second and sector-specific doles to the badly battered parts of the economy. The current package offers no clarity which segments will benefit from it, which is why the market has lost direction.

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MARKET CUES: Where do we stand >>>
    Nifty futures on the Singapore Exchange traded some 16 points down at 7 am (IST) in signs that Dalal Street is indecisive amid lack of directional cues

    On Thursday, Nifty50 formed a bearish candle on the daily chart. Such a chart following Wednesday's 'Bearish Belt Hold' pattern suggests the bears were in the driver's seat. Analysts said the index may face resistance breaching the 9,250 level while it may find some support near the 9,050 level.

    F&O data showed major Put writing at 8,500 followed by 8,800 levels, and Call writing at 9,500 followed by 9,300 levels. They indicated an immediate trading range between 8,800 and 9,500 levels. India VIX slipped 1.67% to 38.18 level. Analysts said higher volatility could continue to keep Nifty on a roller-coaster ride.

    Elsewhere in Asia, equities drifted as investors took stock of data that offered a mixed picture on China's post-lockdown economic recovery. Shares slipped in Tokyo, Hong Kong and Seoul, fluctuated in Shanghai, and saw modest gains in Sydney.

    Wall Street rallied back from a sharp morning drop on Thursday, led by a resurgence for some of the year's most beaten-down stocks. S&P500 rose 32.50 points,Dow 377.37 points and the Nasdaq 80.55 points

    Oil prices were mixed on Friday after big gains a day earlier when the IEA predicted crude stockpiles would start to shrink in second-half 2020. Brent crude was up 1 cent at $31.13 a barrel after rising nearly 7% on Thursday, while WTI oil was down 13 cents, or 0.5%, at $27.43

    The rupee slipped 10 paise to close at 75.56 against the US dollar on Thursday, tracking weak domestic equities.

    The dollar eased from a three-week high on Friday but looked set for a modest weekly gain. Against a basket of currencies the dollar is up about 0.5% this week.

LOOK WHO'S

FM's helping hand to migrants... Finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman unveiled measures aimed at benefiting migrant workers, farmers, street vendors and the urban poor in the second installment of economic measures aimed reviving the economy that's been grounded by the Covid-19 pandemic. The support measures totalling Rs 2.46 lakh crore include free foodgrain, credit support and a new affordable rental housing scheme and seek to provide concessional credit to farmers and street vendors, and mandate an expeditious switchover to 'one nation, one ration card' to ensure continuous supply of foodgrain for the poor even if they change their place of residence. Read More

Public shareholding limit eased... Sebi has eased the 25% minimum public shareholding norm for listed companies in the wake of the Covid-19 outbreak. The regulator relaxed the requirement for companies that were to have complied with the rule between March 1 and August 31. At present, stock exchanges and depositories are mandated to take action against listed companies that don't meet the minimum public shareholding norms. Read More

Bond yields cool off... Corporate bond yields in India declined on Thursday and are on course to soften further, with this week's federal measures expect to boost growth and restrain government debt from bloating. The spread between top-rated corporate bonds and government papers — a barometer of calmness -- narrowed to 80-90 basis points, compared with 90-100 bps a few days earlier. On Thursday, top-rated corporate bonds led the broad-based rally as yields fell 10-15 basis points across the board, outpacing the decline in comparative sovereign bonds. Read More

Wholesale food inflation eases... India's wholesale food inflation slowed to 3.6% in April from 5.49% a month earlier, official data showed on Thursday, even as the government suspended the release of the headline wholesale inflation number as the nationwide lockdown has disrupted data collection. Inflation, as measured by the wholesale price index (WPI), was 1% in March, down from 2.26% in February. Read More

AND WHO'S

Firms struggle to resume operations... With the country still under lockdown and suppliers and dealers only partially open, auto, steel, cement, component makers and engineering firms are struggling to streamline production, with output barely touching 20% of capacity. Work at factories has resumed in tough conditions: Demand is yet to revive, labour availability is limited and new safety and health norms have to be enforced in the workplace. Read More

Pandemic may wipe off 10% of world GDP... Global economic losses caused by the coronavirus pandemic could be between $5.8 trillion and $8.8 trillion this year, the Asian Development Bank said on Friday, more than double its earlier estimates as containment measures paralyse economies. The ADB's forecast, equal to 6.4% to 9.7% of global gross domestic product, was worse than projections in April when it said the global economy could suffer between $2.0 trillion and $4.1 trillion in losses. Read More

Mallya loses UK appeal… Vijay Mallya has lost his application to appeal against his extradition in the UK Supreme Court and could be sent to India within the next 28 days. With no legal remedy left in the UK, Mallya can still approach European Court of Human Rights on the grounds that he won't receive a fair trial in India. Read More

Meanwhile...
FMCG firms want labour policy eased... India's top consumer goods companies like HUL, Nestle, PepsiCo, Parle Products, Britannia, ITC and Mondelez have written to the government seeking clearances to run facilities with a 75% cap on worker deployment in green and orange zones, and a 50-60% cap in red zones against the current cap of 33%. They also sought relief from the Factories Act and requested that governments clear 12-hour work days with overtime pay, against the stipulated eight hours, in all states. Read More
KEY INDICES
13,018  -45.8
10,706  -67.95
19,068  -566.45
13,294  -483.2
Price Movers|Volume Movers|Near 52 Week High|Near 52 Week Low

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Stocks to Watch >>>

Coal India is under stress because power plants have not paid dues worth Rs 17,000 crore. The miner may go for its first bond issue, coal secretary said, ruling out giving suppliers' credit to consumers

Asian Paints is swimming against the tide and is raising salaries to boost staff morale instead of slashing pay and jobs — a standard industry response to the current demand destruction

Midsize IT firm Mphasis expects to grow faster than the industry average in fiscal year 2021, as clients in banking and financial services spend more on technology to shift operations away from offices to the Cloud, following the Covid-19 pandemic

Aurobindo Pharma, its promoter PV Ramprasad Reddy, his wife P Suneela Rani and three others have settled an alleged insider trading case with Sebi by paying over Rs 22 crore as settlement.

Maruti Suzuki said business and new launch plans will be impacted by disruptions around the coronavirus pandemic.

UnQuote: DEFENSIVES
Sectors like airline and tourism will need more direct support from govt
Sonal Varma, Nomura

The DAY PLANNER

    Q4 Earnings: Tata Chemicals | Cipla | Crompton | L&T Finance | M&M Finance
    China April Industrial Output (07.30 am)
    China April Unemployment Rate (07.30 am)
    RBI's May-end forex reserve (05.00 pm)
    India Balance of Trade (06.00 pm)
    Euro Area March Balance of Trade (02.30 pm)
    US April Industrial Output (06.45 pm)

OUTLOOK
High-quality banks well-placed
    Hiren Ved of Alchemy Capital says high quality banks and NBFCs are sitting pretty okay on the liability side. "For them, access to money is not an issue, unlike it is for smaller NBFCs or smaller microfinance companies. Large private banks have a great deposit franchise. I think the problem is on the asset side right now. What happens essentially is that growth takes a toll in such conditions," says he. Read More

Time right for auto rebound
    Sunil Subramaniam of Sundaram Mutual says he is confident that the auto sector will revive. "Good monsoon will create demand from Bharat as opposed to urban India. Secondly, the rural segment is far less affected than the urban segment due to the Covid crisis. And thirdly, the trickle-down effect of all government stimulus will ultimately come into the hands of people in rural India, more than in urban India, and that will create demand for two wheelers, cars as well as tractors," says he. Read More

FM has struck right balance
    Pranjul Bhandari of HSBC says while the overall size of Tranche 1 of the stimulus package is very large, the fiscal implication particularly for the current year is going to be low. "It is going to be more like 0.1% of GDP by our calculations. This is important because a lot of other stresses are building up. For example, there's a huge tax revenue shortfall. Perhaps there is disappointment on the disinvestment receipts. So, a balance was struck," she said. Read More

STOCKS RECOMMENDATIONS
State Bank of India 15 May, 2020 | 08:44 AM IST buyBuy
Larsen & Toubro Ltd. 15 May, 2020 | 08:23 AM IST buyBuy


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