Tuesday, 19 May 2020

FM says 2008-13 lessons guided stimulus | India Inc seeks to avoid Q1 earnings | Wealthy sending record money abroad

MORNING NEWSLETTER

20 May, 2020 | 08:30 AM IST


Good Morning!

Franklin Templeton is now telling investors in six closed credit funds that they may have to wait for over five years to fully recoup their money. It says the schemes will explore all opportunities to monetise the underlying assets in the portfolio, without resorting to any distress sales. The fund says it may be able to return the money earlier if there is any opportunity for sale of the underlying assets in the frozen funds in the secondary market or if there is prepayment or accelerated payment by the debt issuers. The news is bound to add to the dismal sentiment in the debt fund market.

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MARKET CUES: Where do we stand >>>
    Nifty futures on the Singapore Exchange traded some 18 points up at 7 am (IST) in signs that Dalal Street is indecisive amid lack of directional cues.

    On Tuesday, Nifty formed an Small Bearish Candle on the daily chart. Analysts expect selling to emerge on any fall below the 8,800-8850 range. They see Nifty upside capped at 9,050 level in the near term.

    In monthly options, Nifty saw maximum Call open interest at 10,000 and then 9,500 levels, and maximum Put OI at 9,000 and 8,500 levels. These data indicated an immediate trading range between 8,600 and 9,200 levels

    Elsewhere in Asia, equity benchmarks came under pressure on Wednesday, tracking overnight declines on Wall Street. Japanese shares edged higher along with those in Hong Kong, while those in South Korea traded flat and shares dropped in China and Australia.

    Wall Street dropped in late-day trade after a report said early data from Moderna Inc's Covid-19 vaccine was insufficient. Dow fell 1.59%, S&P500 lost 1.05% and the Nasdaq 0.54%.

    Oil prices dipped on Wednesday as concerns over the lasting economic fallout from the coronavirus pandemic. Brent crude futures for July delivery traded 11 cents, or 0.3%, down at $34.54 a barrel, while WTI crude futures slipped 13 cents, or 0.4%, to $31.83

    The rupee appreciated 25 paise to settle at 75.66 against the US dollar on Tuesday as reports of initial success in Covid-19 vaccine trial boosted investor sentiment the world over.

    The US dollar fell against the euro on Tuesday as the common currency added to Monday's gains. The greenback found little support from data showing US homebuilding dropped by the most on record in April.

LOOK WHO'S

FM says 2013 lessons guided stimulus... Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman says the government kept the lessons of the 2008-13 period in mind when designing its Rs 20 lakh crore stimulus package, and asserts that announced since last week cannot be boxed into "supply side measures" as they put money in the hands of people who will spend and create demand. On future stimulus measures, she said "As we go forward we have to keep assessing." Read More

India Inc fundraise on a high... India Inc may be heading for one of its best ever fundraising years in FY21 as companies rush to take advantage of low rates and shore up their capital after the devastating impact of Covid-19 related disruptions. Filings so far in April and May show that companies have announced plans to raise Rs 1.5 lakh crore in debt and equity which include Reliance Industries' Rs 53,000 crore rights issue. Read More

W ealthy sends record money abroad...Indian remittances overseas surged to a record in March as many wealthy Indians might have shifted a part of their savings to safe haven assets and to purchase popular technology company stocks, taking advantage of the sudden collapse in valuations. Indians sent a record $18.75 billion in FY'20 under the liberalised remittance scheme, whose scope was widened in 2015 to facilitate investments in overseas markets, send money for maintenance of close relatives abroad and other purposes. Read More

Ecommerce sees demand surge... With the government allowing online sale of non-essentials in red zones, consumers flocked to e-commerce platforms, resulting in a spike in sales coming from pent-up demand. E-tailers like Amazon and Flipkart have seen a "significant" spike in sales in categories like work-from-home equipment, smartphones along with kitchen and home appliances. Vertical online platform furniture retailer Pepperfry has also seen demand double over the last couple of weeks as it starts delivering study chairs and desks. Read More

AND WHO'S

India Inc seeks to avoid Q1 earnings... Companies have approached Sebi to allow listed firms to either postpone their financial results for the June quarter or merge them with the September numbers amid growing concern that wide losses and decline in sales between April and June could unsettle investors and put off banks. Some leading industry bodies have also urged Sebi to consider relaxing rules on pricing of preferential equity offer and open offer to enable capital infusion and simplify the process for delisting. Read More

Govt pushes NBFC Covid relief.... The government is in talks with RBI on how best to ensure that the Rs 30,000 crore relief package for NBFCs is targeted at those that need it most, particularly since lower-rated paper of investment grade will be the focus. This assumes importance after RBI's Rs 2.5 lakh crore Targeted Long Term Repo Operation saw banks subscribing mostly to bonds issued by top-rated companies. Read More

NPA provision rules may be eased... The one-year suspension for filing new cases under the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code and a default holiday for loans taken to deal with Covid-19 is likely to force RBI to soften its restructuring and provisioning norms to deal with stressed assets. Bankers said the blanket ban on new IBC entries leaves restructuring of loans as the only plausible route to cure default, but stringent RBI norms will have to be amended. Read More

Jobless rate steady... India's unemployment rate was at 24% for the week ended May 17, the same as the previous week, independent think tank CMIE said. With the gradual opening up of industries, there has, however, been an increase in labour participation rate. "Halfway into May, the unemployment rate appears to be around the same level as in April, mostly higher by a whisker," it said. Read More

Meanwhile...
More trains set to resume service... Indian Railways is set to operate 200 non-air-conditioned trains every day starting June 1. They will run on a timetable and passengers can book tickets online, the railway ministry said in a statement. Booking will commence in a few days and schedule and the routes will be announced soon, the ministry said. No tickets will be sold at railway stations, it added. Read More
KEY INDICES
12,471 + 61.8
10,355  -21.13
17,486  -86.95
13,447 + 132.2
Price Movers|Volume Movers|Near 52 Week High|Near 52 Week Low

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Stocks to Watch >>>

Hero MotoCorp has decided to defer planned investments for capacity additions due to the coronavirus pandemic, and has sought an immediate tax relief from the government in terms of GST rate cut.

Piramal Enterprises is in talks to sell $300 million (Rs 2,200 crore) of loans advanced to three renewable energy companies to Brookfield Asset Management.

Bank of Singapore and many global PE funds such as Blackstone, KKR and Apax are in the race to buy a minority stake in Edelweiss Global Investment Advisors.

Bajaj Finance has posted a 20% year-on-year fall in its net profit for the quarter ended March mainly because it increased provisioning by nearly five times in view of the national lockdown.

Tata Power posted a two-folds jump in its consolidated net profit to Rs 475 crore in the January-March quarter compared to the year-ago period.

Ujjivan Small Finance Bank reported a 15 per cent rise in net profit at Rs 73.15 crore for the three months to March, after it made a COVID-19 related provision of Rs 70 crore.

Apollo Tyres reported a 7.36 per cent decline in its consolidated net profit to Rs 77.8 crore for the fourth quarter ended March 31, 2020.

Suzlon Energy has got shareholders' nod for its debt restructuring plan. All 10 resolutions through postal ballot have been approved with requisite majority through post ballot.

UnQuote: Not Stimulated
You cannot allow rating agencies to decide policy
P Chidambaram, former Finance Minister

The DAY PLANNER

    Earnings Today: Bajaj Auto | Chennai Petro | Dr Reddy's | JSW Energy | Jubilant Foodworks | Ultratech Cement
    UK April Infation Rate (11.30 am)
    EIA May Crude Oil Stock Change (08.00 pm)
    Euro Area May Consumer Confidence (07.30 pm)

OUTLOOK

Pharma offers lot of comfort
    Sailesh Raj Bhan of Nippon India AMC says pharma space has just come out of four-five very difficult years. "You have a comfort of valuations and earnings trajectory upside with far more greater visibility than most other sectors. This is one sector where possibly earnings can double in a four-year or five-year period with far greater visibility. Hence, this sector will continue to see a good traction over the next one to three years," says he. Read More

Financials' valuations better now
    Gurmeet Chadha of Complete-Circle-Consultants says while financial remains the trouble point, he is am beginning to get a little more constructive on them looking at the valuations. "They look far more reasonable than what they were and globally if you see, financials have been valued at 0.5 to 2 book value. Indian financials, obviously private banks and NBFCs, were with very high multiples. So now we are probably getting in that global peer range for things to get constructive from here," says he. Read More

Chemicals midcaps look attractive
    Samit Vartak of SageOne Investment Advisors says his midcap bets have mainly been in the chemicals space."Because irrespective of whether pharma plays out or not, there is the agrochemical side and there are multiple industries they cater to. Assuming that there is a 10% possibility of more supply chain diversification away from China, it is not a trend which was figured by this crisis. It is a trend which started almost 12 years back and it is going to continue," says he. Read More

STOCKS RECOMMENDATIONS
Dr. Lal Pathlabs Ltd. 20 May, 2020 | 08:15 AM IST buyAdd
Central Depository Services (India) Ltd. 19 May, 2020 | 01:48 PM IST buyBuy


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