Monday 30 March 2020

Tax sops in the works for India Inc | S&P cuts India growth outlook | Axis Bank investor Bain in a soup

MORNING NEWSLETTER

31 Mar, 2020 | 08:54 AM IST


Good Morning!

Market veteran Vetri Subramaniam makes an interesting point: It can't be about breaking down largecaps and midcaps or focussing excessively on particular sectors when the market looks up. "You want to see which companies are likely to come through this challenging period relatively unscathed, and which ones would be best placed to capitalise on growth as and when things start to normalise. Because when damage happens on the supply side, the survivors actually come out much stronger." That requires one to be a little more judicious in stock picking.

74904999

STREET PULSE: Where we stand
Nifty futures on the Singapore Exchange traded some 170 points higher at 7am (IST), signalling a possible rebound ahead on Dalal Street. Elsewhere in Asia, shares managed a tentative rally as factory data from China held out the hope of a rebound in activity even as other countries across the globe all but shut down. Read More

    MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan rose 1.1%, while Japan's Nikkei firmed 1.0% after a jittery start and South Korea added 2%.

    In overnight trade, healthcare stocks led Wall Street higher, with the Dow ending up 3.19%, while the S&P 500 gained 3.35% and the Nasdaq 3.62%.

    Oil price recovered some ground on Tuesday as US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin agreed to discuss stabilising energy markets. Brent rose by 19 cents, or 0.8%, to $22.95 a barrel while WTI crude gained 59 cents, or 2.9%, to $20.68

    The rupee tumbled by 70 paise to close at 75.59 against the US dollar on Monday as concerns around coronavirus impact on economies continued to hurt sentiment globally.

WHO'S

BANKS DITHER ON WAIVERS... Some of the banks are reluctant to extend the RBI moratorium on interest and loan repayment to certain categories of borrowers, such as government employees whose salaries have not been impacted or large companies with the wherewithal to tide over the crisis. They fear that if a large number of borrowers refuse to service loans, RBI measures to soften the blow from Covid-19 could fall short of requirement and the moratorium will more than offset the benefits of extra-liquidity. Read More

BLEAK OUTLOOK… S&P Global Ratings has slashed its forecast on India's economic growth to 3.5% for the new financial year from 5.2%, the second downgrade in as many weeks, even as it likened the Covid-19 impact to the 1997-98 Asian Financial Crisis. S&P warned of higher defaults resulting from a demand slump due to the Covid-19 outbreak in many countries and a recession across the Asia-Pacific region. Read More

BAIN IN TROUBLE… As Axis Bank shares sank in the ongoing market meltdown, PE major Bain Capital is understood to have come under pressure from top offshore banks that had part-funded its investment in the private sector lender three years ago, said multiple people in the know. Discussions are underway between the PE major and the lenders to restructure the terms of the loan or offer more cash or additional securities. Read More

LOOK, WHO'S BLEEDING… The country's labour-intensive export sectors such as leather, textiles, gems and jewellery, carpets and handicrafts have borne the brunt of the Covid-19 pandemic with orders getting cancelled, shipments delayed indefinitely, payments missed and consignments stuck at ports. According to sectoral estimates, about Rs 7,600 crore of leather export orders have been cancelled, Rs 2,000 crore carpet orders are stuck and handicraft sector losses are seen at Rs 8,000 crore. Read More

LOOK WHO'S

TAX SOPS COMING… India is close to finalising a second economic relief package that may include tax concessions for industry sectors hit hard by the disruption due to Covid-19, particularly MSMEs, services and exports. Some of the steps being considered include a moratorium on select tax payments for some sectors, reduction in import and export duties, relaxation in payment of dues and fees and additional interest subvention for exports. Read More

RATING CONCESSION… Sebi has allowed credit rating agencies to not consider non-payment of interest and principal by companies on account of disruptions caused by Covid-19 as default. Separately, the markets regulator has also allowed custodians to accept scanned copies of documents for existing as well as for fresh registration of foreign portfolio investors. Read More

Meanwhile...
A SWEET DEAL IN DEPRESSING TIMES... Shares of sugar producers advanced in a falling market on Monday as investors bet on demand for the commodity remaining strong despite the ongoing 21-day lockdown. Hopes of sugar producers in UP securing permission from the state government to manufacture hand sanitisers also boosted sentiment. Read More
KEY INDICES
11,446  -317.2
9,331  -166.3
18,782  -1186.6
12,319  -250.3
Price Movers|Volume Movers|Near 52 Week High|Near 52 Week Low

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Stocks to Watch >>>

Bombay HC has restrained IDBI Trusteeship and others from selling pledged shares of the Kishore Biyani-promoted firm till further order.

Royal Enfield maker Eicher Motors has suspended payments to a few of its suppliers, invoking what is known as the 'force majeure' clause

The Sajjan Jindal-led JSW Group released pledged promoter shares of JSW Steel and JSW Energy worth Rs 409.1 crore by repaying loans of Rs 640 crore taken by the promoter firms.

Vallabh Bhansali bought 99,152 shares of Teamlease Services at Rs 1,495 each from Enam Investment Services on Monday

Troubled wind turbine maker Suzlon Energy has received approval from lenders led by State Bank of India to restructure its Rs 14,000 crore worth debt.

UnQuote: SHAPE OF SOPS
Need a $50 billion equity stabilisation fund; bank bond purchases should be 3-4 times bigger
Vishal Kampani, MD, JM Financial

The DAY PLANNER

    India Feb Infrastructure Output
    India Feb-end Fiscal Deficit
    India Q4 External Debt
    Japan Feb Unemployment Rate
    China March Non-Manufacturing PMI
    UK Q4 GDP Growth Rate
    Euro Area March Inflation Rate

OUTLOOK
NIFTY NOT DONE WITH FALL
    Independent market analyst Anand Tandon says we are looking at something like a repeat of 2008 in the market. "Every 8-10 years, we tend to have a cycle where the market drops off a cliff and we are seeing a similar sight now. If that is indeed the case, I do not think we are done yet, because we are only 40% down from the top, whereas every previous bull cycle had actually fallen off 60% or more on Nifty before it actually stabilised," he said. Read More

NO POINT PREJUDGING MARKET
    Aveek Mitra of Aveksat Financial Advisory says there is no point trying to do anything smart in this market. "We are not saying we have reached a juicy valuation and so we are getting back. We want to be very cautious and let the market signal rather than try to prejudge it. We have requested people to keep their money ready and at the same time, we are having some bit of cash. Till we use that cash, there is no point in asking people to give more money," says he. Read More

LARGECAP OR MIDCAP
    Vetri Subramaniam of UTI Mutual Fund says going by history, largecaps have always been the first to lead the recovery from these kind of crisis lows. "It is only after a largecap rally that the rest of the market starts to broadbase and participate. From India's point of view, our macro situation other than Covid-19 has been quite stable. The only parameter we will have to worry about in next one quarter or two will be growth," says he. Read More

STOCKS RECOMMENDATIONS
NTPC Ltd. 31 Mar, 2020 | 08:39 AM IST buyBuy
Sun Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd. 31 Mar, 2020 | 08:38 AM IST buyBuy


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