Sunday, 22 March 2020

D-Street headed for Monday mayhem | Many stocks face F&O ban | Govt package for India Inc likely today

MORNING NEWSLETTER

23 Mar, 2020 | 08:45 AM IST


Good Morning!

The Sebi order restricting short positions proportionate to one's stock holding, raising margins on both derivative and cash market and limiting positions in index futures are bound to have a bearing on Dalal Street, as they will sharply reduce liquidity and take away much of the speculation from the market. In other words, at one stroke, the market regulator has removed the non-serious players from the system. There is also a possibility that Dalal Street may witness a rush to cover existing short positions on Monday.

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STREET PULSE: Where we stand
Nifty futures on the Singapore Exchange traded over 1,000 points down at 7am (IST), signalling another major selloff on Dalal Street. Elsewhere in Asia, shares shares slid on Monday as more countries shut down in the fight against the coronavirus. Read More

    MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan lost 2 per cent, with South Korea badly hit. The commodity-heavy Australian market shed 5 per cent. But Japan's Nikkei added 0.8 per cent.

    US stocks plunged 5% on Friday. Dow fell 913 points, or 4.55 per cent, to 19,173, the S&P500 index lost 104 points, or 4.34 per cent, and Nasdaq 271 points, or 3.79 per cent. Friday's drop left the Dow down 3 per cent from when President Trump took office in January 2017. This morning, e-Mini futures for the S&P500 dived 5 per cent at the open.

    Oil prices fell at the open in Asia on Monday after a trillion-dollar Senate proposal to help the coronavirus-hit American economy was defeated and death tolls soared across Europe and the US. WTI traded 1.5 per cent lower at $22 a barrel, while Brent fell 4.9 per cent to $25

    The rupee gave up its day's gains to settle 8 paise lower at a fresh life-time low of 75.20 against the US dollar on Friday as forex market continued to grapple with economic uncertainties due to fast-spreading coronavirus pandemic.

WHO'S

MANY STOCKS FACE F&O BAN… The decision by market regulator Sebi to lower position limits that can be taken in the futures and options (F&O) market will result in several stocks moving into the ban period from Monday, said analysts. These include stocks such as Adani Enterprises, Indiabulls Housing Finance, Vodafone Idea, Jindal Steel & Power, Just Dial, NCC, Yes Bank, PVR and Punjab National Bank, among others. Sebi has increased margin requirements and capped derivatives exposure in a bid to curb volatility and short-selling in the equity markets. Read More

INDIA GOES FOR MAJOR LOCKDOWN… Large swathes of the country will be on lockdown from Monday amid alarm over Covid-19 cases rising to 396 on Sunday from 315 on Saturday — the biggest jump in a day — and the death toll going to seven from four. Delhi, Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Punjab, Rajasthan and Uttarakhand will be shut until March 31 — and more states could follow. West Bengal's lockdown will last until March 27 while UP announced a closure in 16 districts until March 25. Chhattisgarh and Bihar announced a shutdown in all urban areas until March 31. Passenger trains, interstate buses and suburban and metro trains have been halted until March 31. State borders have been sealed. Read More

EQUITY FUNDS HIT HARD… As the selloff wreaked havoc on the stock market, no equity mutual fund was spared. While the Nifty falling 28% in the past one month, many schemes fell even sharper. But, there are a few schemes that have taken a relatively moderate hit compared to others. Though it might not console investors that the better performing schemes too have lost money, analysts said it may be a good guide to select your equity product for the future. Most of these performing schemes have low exposure to financial services, higher holding in retail and consumer sectors, with enough cash in their portfolios. Read More

KEY ECONOMY SEGMENTS SHUT DOWN… Key segments of Indian manufacturing have started shutting down in response to the lockdown orders issued by central and state governments and the suspension of public transport services in many places in the country. Automakers, smartphone makers, consumer electronic firms, appliance majors and many others have ordered shutdowns till month-end. While some will take stock by March 25, others will remain shut till March 31, causing incalculable damage to production of key products. Read More

LOOK WHO'S

PACKAGE FOR INDIA INC TODAY?… Finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman could announce measures to deal with the economic impact of Covid-19 in her reply to the Finance Bill on Monday. She could also propose a threshold of Rs 15 lakh for the taxation of the income of nonresidents who don't pay tax in other jurisdictions, taking the sting out of the contentious budget proposal. The government is also seeking to raise special additional excise duty on petrol to Rs 18 per litre and on diesel to Rs 12 per litre, raising revenue for relief measures. Read More

MFS SEEK RBI HELP… Mutual funds have approached RBI seeking liquidity support fearing sharp redemptions from bond funds — mainly liquid schemes — in the coming days as risk aversion due to the coronavirus fright has sparked the flight of money from these products to bank deposits. With several liquid funds posting losses following the spike in bond yields triggered by the selloff in the markets, several investors in this scheme category — mostly corporates who park their idle money there — have already begun pulling money out of these products, said industry officials. Read More

Meanwhile...
LIC EXEMPTS PREMIUM DUES…LIC has exempted all premium dues for its customers until April 15 on account of the curbs placed by the government to contain the spread of Covid-19, with the disruptions affecting the finances — and the ability to transact — of thousands of policyholders across the country. The state-owned insurance behemoth that dominates three-fourths of the life insurance market said on Sunday that the decision was taken "in view of prevailing extraordinary circumstances in the country on account of Covid-19." Read More
KEY INDICES
12,661 + 596.7
10,113 + 391.46
20,318 + 234.1
12,363 + 1023.45
Price Movers|Volume Movers|Near 52 Week High|Near 52 Week Low

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Stocks to Watch >>>

    Amid protests from the minority shareholders and a telling rout in stock prices, the Ashok Leyland board has decided to acquire a lower stake in its subsidiary, Hinduja Leyland Finance, slashing the investment to less than a third of the Rs 1,200 crore initially proposed.

    Maruti Suzuki India (MSI), the country's largest carmaker, said it was suspending production at its facilities in Haryana "till further notice"

    Tata Power has reached a resolution on compensation with states buying electricity from the Mundra UMPP – a major breakthrough that ends the decade-long deadlock that threatened to shut down the imported coal fired 4,000-mw plant.

    Godrej Consumer (GCPL) and ITC on Sunday slashed the price of their entry-level hand sanitizer packs under Godrej Protekt and Savlon, respectively, by nearly 66 per cent, in response to Hindustan Unilever (HUL) reducing its prices.

    Mahindra & Mahindra (M&M) said it had suspended manufacturing at its Nagpur plant and would halt production at Chakan (Pune) and Kandivali (Mumbai) from Monday.

UnQuote: SEBI CURBS GOOD
Sebi move to bring back genuine investors
Sunil Subramaniam, Sundaram Mutual

The DAY PLANNER

    Indian FM reply on Finance Bill
    Chicago Fed National Activity Index Feb
    Russia GDP YoY Feb
    Euro Area Consumer Confidence Flash March

OUTLOOK
CONSUMER, IT PLAYS RELATIVELY SAFER
    Manishi Raychaudhuri of BNP Paribas says there are no obvious resilient pockets in Indian market, but some sectors are relatively less affected. "Consumer staples is one example. They would also benefit from the steep slide in crude oil prices. Their raw material prices and packaging costs are correlated with crude oil prices and so they would gain on that front. Even IT services would stay relatively resilient because of the decline in rupee," he said. Read More

NO END IN SIGHT TO VOLATILITY
    Independent market analyst Kunal Bothra says till the time the global markets or the volatility does not ease off, it is going to be difficult for the markets to settle in a range. "There might be periods of sharp corrections and that would be counted by very sharper periods of rallies, as we had seen on Friday. But till the time the volatility settles down and Nifty establishes the trading range, it is going to be difficult for short-term traders to try and establish a trend," he said. Read More

EARLY DAYS OF BEAR MARKET
    Independent market expert Ajay Bagga says from starting of the bear market till its low, markets normally take about 70-80 days. "I would say it is still very early days. We have just hit the bear market about 10 days back and given it a month or two. Let prices stabilise. The market will get used to these lower levels and that would be consolidation," says he. Read More

STOCKS RECOMMENDATIONS
Shriram Transport Finance Company Ltd. 23 Mar, 2020 | 08:16 AM IST SellSell
LIC Housing Finance Ltd. 23 Mar, 2020 | 08:15 AM IST SellSell


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