Thursday 26 March 2020

Some India Inc promoters lose pledged shares | Govt assures industry more stimulus coming | Debt-laden Biyani explores stake dilution

MORNING NEWSLETTER

27 Mar, 2020 | 08:35 AM IST


Good Morning!

The organised sector accounts for just 10 per cent of India's labour force. Which is why the ongoing coronavirus-triggered lockdown has raised the spectra of large job losses. With cash flow drying up, unorganised players may not be able to keep all the workers on their rolls for long. They will need support from the government to keep going. So when the Finance Minister avoided any measures to address the pain of the industry, there were concerns that if the government prefers to stick to fiscal prudence now, it might end up creating a nightmarish situation of millions of job losses and pay cuts, causing income compression for a large majority.

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STREET PULSE: Where we stand
Nifty futures on the Singapore Exchange traded some 150 points higher at 7am (IST), signalling more gains ahead on Dalal Street. Elsewhere in Asia, stock markets rose as investors wagered policymakers will roll out additional stimulus measures to combat the coronavirus pandemic after US unemployment filings surged to a record. Read More

    MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan rose 1.0%. Australian shares were up 2.02%, while Japan's Nikkei stock index rose 3.65%.

    The Dow surged 6.2%, or 1,352 points, to extend its three-day surge to 21%. That means the index has officially reentered a bull market just weeks after the last one ended. The S&P500 posted a three-day winning streak, rising 6.2% to end its trading day at 2,630. The Nasdaq advanced 5.6% to 7,797.

    Oil prices rose on Friday after world leaders promised a massive injection of funds to limit the economic fallout from the coronavirus pandemic, despite fears the outbreak will destroy demand for oil. After tumbling for the past four weeks, Brent crude rose 50 cents, or nearly 2%, to $26 a barrel, while WTI crude gained 60 cents, or 2.7%, to $23.20

    The rupee surged by another 78 paise to 75.16 against the US dollar on Thursday after Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman announced various welfare measures to tide through the coronavirus crisis.

WHO'S

PROMOTERS LOSE PLEDGE SHARES.. Promoters of over a dozen firms have been forced to let go of pledged shares as many of them struggled to raise money in time to top up the value of their collateral in the recent market crash. Lenders have invoked promoter shares in companies such as JustDial, Asian Hotels (North), Reliance Capital, Eveready Industries, Reliance Home Finance and Mandhana Retail in the past month. The more deep-pocketed promoters of over 50 firms managed to bring in fresh shares to make up for the decline in collateral. In these cases, the lenders may have transferred the holdings to their accounts, but it is not clear whether they have been sold. Read More

TRADERS BEARISH ABOUT APRIL… Traders predominantly carried forward bearish bets on Indian markets to April derivatives series on expiry of the March contracts on Thursday despite the recent run-up and drop in foreign fund selling of late on worries that the renewed optimism could be shortlived. The rollover to the April series stood at 62% in Nifty futures and 55% in Bank Nifty futures on a provisional basis -- way below their three-month averages. Investors were disappointed that the government did not extend the package to the stressed industries. Read More

DEBT TIES UP BIYANI… Debt at the holding company level, plunging share price of listed entities, and crashing sales due to the Covid-19 scare, have forced Future Group founder Kishore Biyani to explore a significant stake dilution in Future Retail and a merger of insurance joint venture Future Generali with bigger, well capitalised players. Earlier this week, Future Corporate Resources Private, Biyani's holding company, defaulted on its debt payments. This resulted in IDBI Trusteeship Services invoking pledged shares in Future Retail, causing Biyani's shareholding to fall by 8%. Read More

LOOK WHO'S

INDIA INC ASSURES STAFF… Leading companies in India are proactively assuring employees that they will be taken care of financially while the lockdown continues or even if it gets extended. From paying advance salaries to both regular and contractual workers a week before the usual salary credit date to honouring joining date commitment for new joinees even if they cannot come on board, companies are going all out to reassure employees. Stalled projects and work irregularities will not come in the way of salary payments, HR heads of top business groups confirmed. Read More

SENATE OKAYS BIG PACKAGE… The US Senate approved a historic $2 trillion rescue plan to respond to the economic crisis caused by the coronavirus pandemic, putting pressure on the Democratic-led House to pass the bill quickly and send it to President Trump for his signature. The massive legislation passed on a 96-0 vote after days of intense negotiations between Republicans and Democrats. The package includes an unprecedented injection of loans, tax breaks and direct payments for major corporations and individual taxpayers to help the US economy get through an abrupt shutdown. Read More

MORE STIMULUS COMING… The government is likely to announce more measures to prevent the Covid-19 outbreak to have a wider impact on economic activity, and also address liquidity issues to ensure no insolvency cases arise during this crisis, says Niti Aayog Vice Chairman Rajiv Kumar. He said subsequent packages will follow, focussing on how to prevent a wider impact in economic activity and addressing liquidity issues so that this situation does not lead to insolvency and bankruptcy. He said Gross Domestic Product growth will be impacted in FY21 due to zero economic activity right at the beginning of the fiscal. Read More

Meanwhile...
CYBERATTACKS ON THE RISE... The number of cyberattacks on Indian companies has doubled in the past few days, as cybercriminals use the disruption brought about by the Covid-19 outbreak to infiltrate corporate networks and steal data, according to a study by PricewaterhouseCoopers' cybersecurity team. Due to increased hacker activity, phishing attempts have gone up by three times, and the work from home infrastructure is also under attack. Read More
KEY INDICES
11,839 + 356.95
9,470 + 340.87
19,614 + 1132.85
12,536 + 302.25
Price Movers|Volume Movers|Near 52 Week High|Near 52 Week Low

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Stocks to Watch >>>

    Yes Bank would raise as much as Rs 5,000 crore in share sale as it returns to normalcy after it was bailed out by the SBI-led consortium of lenders following a bad loan surge that eroded its capital

    M&M, in partnership with two public sector units, is working with an existing manufacturer of high-spec ventilators to help them simplify design and scale up capacity,

    Realty developer Lodha Group has offered full rental waiver for shops in all its retail properties starting March 15 until the government permit reopening of shopping malls and retail outlets after the countrywide lockdown

    Deepak Fertilisers, the only Indian manufacturer of specialty chemical IPA (isopropyl alcohol), a key ingredient for sanitisers may benefit from rising demand for cleansers amid the Covid-19 outbreak.

    IT services provider Tech Mahindra said it would shut all offices, and most critical services would be managed by employees from home.

    KPIT Technologies said it expected its Q4FY20 and FY21 revenues to be impacted as a result of the disruptions at development centres globally on account of the Covid-19 outbreak.

    Diageo-controlled liquor maker United Spirits on Thursday said it has shut down its manufacturing units amidst the Covid-19 lockdown

UnQuote: GROWTH HIT
India's real GDP growth will fall to 1.5-2% in FY21 due to lockdown
Kaushik Das, Chief India Economist, Deutsche Bank

The DAY PLANNER

    RBI Deposit Growth for March
    RBI Forex Reserves March
    RBI Bank Loan Growth March
    China Feb Industrial Profit
    UK Feb Nationwide Housing Price
    US Feb Personal Spending
    Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count

OUTLOOK
GOOD TIME TO BUY
    Sampath Reddy, CIO, Bajaj Allianz Life Insurance, says share prices are not a function of earnings for just the near term or two quarters or three quarters. "They actually reflect long-term earnings potential of a company. If you were to take that cognizance across the board, equity markets are way below their intrinsic values. This is a good time to buy," says he. Read More

NIFTY IN LONG BEAR MARKET?
    Peter L Brandt, Founder & CEO of Factor, says for now, Nifty is going to work itself lower and might have a rally back to 9,600. "But for me that would surely be an opportunity. I see Nifty dropping lower mainly because the big bull market that had started 20 years ago topped out in 2019. So we are going to undergo a couple of years of bearish trends in India across the board," says he. Read More

STICK TO QUALITY IN BANKING
    Naveen Kulkarni, CIO, Axis Securities, says quality is going to be the most critical aspect in the banking space. "More important from a quality perspective is the liability franchise that the top tier-1 banks have. That is going to be one of the most critical aspects that we are looking at this point in time. The likes of HDFC Bank, Kotak and ICICI have very high quality liability franchises; so that is going to be one of the key differentiating factors," says he. Read More

STOCKS RECOMMENDATIONS
Dr. Lal Pathlabs Ltd. 27 Mar, 2020 | 08:31 AM IST buyBuy
Kajaria Ceramics Ltd. 27 Mar, 2020 | 08:24 AM IST buyBuy


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