Tuesday, 18 February 2020

Relief in sight for Voda-Idea | Nifty PCR sends out mixed signals | Promoter share pledges down sharply

MORNING NEWSLETTER

19 Feb, 2020 | 08:24 AM IST


Good Morning!

Basic tenets of investing are getting challenged repeatedly in the current market and investors are faced with a very unusual situation amid a liquidity glut, with only a select few stocks making merry as others crawl. But then, fundamentals always prove right in the long run. As Sunil Subramaniam of Sundaram Mutual puts it, when you are looking at the possibility of a U-shaped recovery in the second half of the year and there is abundant liquidity, you have no choice but to go ahead and invest, because you do not want to miss the bus.

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STREET PULSE: Where we stand
Nifty futures on Singapore Exchange traded 31 points higher at 7am (IST), signalling a possible bounce on Dalal Street. Asian shares and US stock futures edged cautiously higher on Wednesday as investors tried to shake off worries about the coronavirus epidemic following a slight decline in the number of new cases. HERE'S WHAT TO WATCH

    MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan rose 0.01%. Australian shares were up 0.14%, while Japan's Nikkei stock index rose 0.61%.

    US stocks dropped in overnight trade, following on Friday's decline. Dow, of which Apple is a component, fell 0.6%, or 165.89 points, to 29,232, while S&P500 dropped 0.3%. But the tech-heavy Nasdaq rose 0.02%.

    Crude oil traded slightly higher on Wednesday but gains were capped by the widening economic impact from the coronavirus epidemic. Brent crude rose by 6 cents at $57.81 a barrel, while WTI crude gained 7 cents to $51.97

    The rupee tumbled by 22 paise to settle at a nearly three-week low of 71.54 against the US dollar on Tuesday as concerns over the economic fallout from coronavirus outbreak continued to roil forex market sentiment.

WHO'S
PCR SENDS OUT MIXED SIGNAL… The Put-Call ratio (PCR) on Nifty active month options declined to 1.02 Tuesday from 1.12 a day earlier as put buyers booked profits. Simultaneously, traders stepped up sales of Nifty calls, indicating that the market bias remains negative within a tight range for the current month despite the index having received strong support at technical level of 11,930. Analysts say the signals are mixed from the options expiry data, but there's slightly more likelihood of downside because of uncertainty over coronavirus and the telecom AGR issue. Read More

SAVERS SLOW DOWN… India's slowing economy took a toll on much-needed savings too, with the savings rate touching a 15-year low, and household savings also falling. This has weakened India's macro-economic position which is already hobbled by low investment and rising external borrowing to fund capital needs. Household savings also declined as consumers spent more in purchasing durables and travelling. Indian households contribute to about 60% of the country's savings. But India remains favourable compared to emerging market peers such as Brazil. Read More

HIGHWAYS HIT ROAD BUMPS… A Finance Ministry decision to treat highway projects as a single entity that cannot be divided into small packages could impact award of about 1,000 km of key infrastructure projects, including the Delhi-Mumbai and Ahmedabad-Dholera Expressways. As a norm, any public-private infrastructure project costing over Rs 2,000 crore is sent to the PPP Appraisal Committee (PPPAC) and then to the Cabinet for its nod. However, PPP projects up to Rs 2,000 crore are appraised and approved by the highways ministry's Standing Finance Committee. Read More

LOOK WHO'S

VODA RELIEF… The government is unlikely to invoke Vodafone Idea's bank guarantees for now, even as the officials of the telecom and finance ministries met Cabinet Secretary Rajiv Gauba to discuss ways to ensure that the sector retains three private players, officials said. "The government could consider postponing or staggering other payments due to it, in order to give some flexibility to telcos to cough up money towards AGR dues," an official said. The official said invoking bank guarantees would be the precursor to termination of telecom licences. Read More

SHARE PLEDGES DOWN… Promoters of top Indian companies have reduced their pledged shares in the December quarter thanks to the rally in the stock market after the cut in corporate tax rate in September, and delay in capex plans. Pledged holdings of companies in the BSE 500 index declined to 2.28% in the December quarter from 2.52% as on September 30, according to a study by Kotak Securities. The value of promoters' pledged holding was Rs 1.65 lakh crore as on December 30, which is about 1.13% of the total BSE 500 Index's market capitalisation. Read More

Meanwhile...
PRICE HIKE IN WHITE GOODS… Prices of televisions, air-conditioners, refrigerators and some smartphone models are set to go up later this month as manufacturers grapple with a shortage of components and finished products imported from Covid-19-hit China. Senior industry executives said companies are cutting down on discounts and promotional offers, which will raise prices 3-5%. For some items such as televisions it could be 7-10%, since the international price of the main component — the TV panel — has already risen 15-20% due to shortages. Read More
KEY INDICES
17,726  -99.3
14,467  -65.02
30,562  -118.2
16,749 + 101.05
Price Movers|Volume Movers|Near 52 Week High|Near 52 Week Low

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Stocks to Watch >>>

    Bharti Airtel's AGR bill is set to increase, with the telecom department likely to add a bulk of Videocon Telecommunications' Rs 2,041 crore dues to it

    Hero MotoCorp has announced plans to make the biggest investment by a two-wheeler company in India in a decade at Rs 10,000 crore on R&D of alternative mobility solutions in 5-7 year.

    The IL&FS group has proposed the creation of an infrastructure investment trust to house the group's road assets and compensate lenders by offering units at zero cost.

    Liberty House, a part of the Gupta Family Group Alliance led by UK-based Sanjeev Gupta, is marking its entry into India by acquiring bankrupt Adhunik Metaliks and Zion Steel for Rs 425 crore in a cash deal.

    NCLAT has referred the ongoing dispute between GE and Triveni Turbines over their joint venture back to the Bengaluru bench of NCLT.

    Vedanta is preparing to sell long-term bonds for the first time in the Indian market, with LIC set to purchase the entire Rs 2,000 crore worth 10-year paper on offer

UnQuote: TRADE SECRET
High liquidity driving 'concentrated' market rally
Sunil Subramaniam, Sundaram Mutual

The DAY PLANNER

    Japan Jan Balance of Trade
    Japan Jan Exports Growth
    UK Jan Inflation Rate
    ECB Non-Monetary Policy Meeting
    Euro Area Dec Current Account

OUTLOOK

PHARMA: FOCUS ON HOME PLAYS
    Sudip Bandyopadhyay of Inditrade Capital says whie pharma looks interesting, but one has to be extremely stock specific. "Every pharma company has its own area of vulnerability as well as own areas of strength. Domestic pharma is something which is giving good returns and growing at about 15% CAGR. Under these circumstances, companies having a significant domestic presence such as Torrent Pharma, Natco Pharma, even Sun Pharma look good at current levels and are worth picking," he said.

SMALLCAP FUNDS: TREAD CAREFULLY
    Dhirendra Kumar of Value Research says one has to be careful before investing in smallcap funds. "In the largecap funds, there is narrowness in category returns. Between the best fund and the not-so-great fund, the return difference will not be much. But in smallcap funds, there is a wide range available and experience matters, diversification matters, size of the fund matters. There are far too many material things to look at. So one has to be careful there," he said.

METALS: TIME FOR REBOUND
    Deven Choksey of KR Choksey Investment Managers says in the commodity space, metals are possibly in a cyclical upswing and the trend is likely to continue. "In the Asia pack, the amount of economic growth has been relatively stable compared with other places. India, in particular, is in a capex mode, so obviously the amount of consumption of the metal is on the higher side. Metal prices are likely to remain steady," he says.

STOCKS RECOMMENDATIONS
Stampede Capital Ltd. 19 Feb, 2020 | 08:24 AM IST buyBuy
Container Corporation of India Ltd. 19 Feb, 2020 | 08:17 AM IST SellSell


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